Broncos QB Bo Nix is Outplaying His Contract, Cap Analysis Reveals

The Denver Broncos are getting good bang for their Bo Nix buck.

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

As the Denver Broncos have passed the halfway point of the season, let’s take another look at how much value they're getting out of their players. Over the Cap’s valuation metric is a means by which people can get an idea about how much value a team is getting from a player compared to what the team is paying him.

OTC's valuation is not an indicator of what a player can expect to get in a future extension but does serve as a way to determine whether a team is getting its money’s worth from a player. As of this writing, OTC valuation only goes through Week 9, though you likely won’t see drastic changes from what the values were through nine weeks once Week 10 games are added.

Let’s examine some notable OTC valuations on key Broncos players.

Bo Nix | QB

• 2024 salary: $11.2M

• OTC valuation: $30M

Nix’s salary for 2024 includes his signing bonus and base salary, but you can see the value teams can get out of a quarterback on a rookie contract. More importantly, his valuation aligns with that of a low-tier starting quarterback in the NFL. While not necessarily playing at a high level, he has improved to the point that he looks more like a QB that the Broncos can build around.

The Broncos will have three more seasons of low-cost pay for Nix, but if he continues to improve, he’ll be in line for a massive extension once he’s eligible in 2027.

Garett Bolles | OT

• 2024 salary: $15.75M

• OTC valuation: $23.8M

Bolles is in the final year of his contract and the Broncos are getting good value out of him this year. As our Erick Trickel recently wrote, Bolles is a strong candidate for an extension.

While it’s true that Bolles will be 33 years old, keeping him around would keep stability on the Broncos' offensive line. The comparison may be Dion Dawkins, who signed a three-year, $60.02M contract extension with the Buffalo Bills during the offseason.

It’s also clear that the extension the Broncos gave Bolles back in 2020 has paid dividends. Though he missed much of the 2022 season with a broken leg, he has justified the Broncos’ decision to keep him around.

Mike McGlinchey | OT

• 2024 salary: $15M

• OTC valuation: $10.7M

McGlinchey was inconsistent last season with pass protection but he has improved this season. The Broncos are seeing a better return on his contract as a result.

One thing to keep in mind is that McGlinchey’s valuation is lower because he missed multiple games with a minor injury. But the valuation should increase as long as he stays healthy and continues to play well.

The Broncos took a gamble when they made McGlinchey one of the highest-paid right tackles in the NFL in the 2023 offseason. Other tackles have since surpassed him in terms of pay, but it’s good to see him improving this year and, thus, better justifying the deal he received.

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Patrick Surtain II | CB

• 2024 salary: $18.5M

• OTC valuation: $13.5M

Thus far, Surtain is delivering a reasonable return on the contract extension he signed. While it would be nice to see the valuation exceed his 2024 salary, he has been playing well overall.

Though Surtain hasn’t logged any interceptions in recent games, he’s still doing his part to contain opposing receivers. His play still warrants him being in the discussion for NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

We’ll see whether PS2 can find some interception opportunities in the coming weeks. That, combined with strong play in pass defense, could greatly increase his valuation for the season.

Nik Bonitto | OLB

• 2024 salary: $1.2M

• OTC valuation: $7.6M

Some might be surprised that Bonitto’s valuation isn’t higher, given what he has done in the pass rush. But that’s because an edge rusher is also graded on his run defense, which has been an issue.

But the Broncos are getting a reasonable return on his salary. Bonitto is another example of the benefit a team can reap from having a quality player on a rookie contract.

Bonitto will be eligible for an extension next season. It remains to be seen if he will be extended, though, at this point, they'll likely evaluate his play in 2025 and, if he keeps improving, consider an extension during the 2025 season.

Brandon Jones | S

• 2024 salary: $7M

• OTC valuation: $13.1M

Jones is proving he’s worth that three-year deal the Broncos gave him this offseason. While not an elite player, he has done more than enough to replace the production the Broncos lost after releasing Justin Simmons.

The Jones contract is one of those deals that may raise eyebrows at first, but turns out to be a strong signing when you consider how well the player fits the scheme.

We’ll see if Jones can continue his quality play the rest of this season and the seasons to come. If he does that, this will go down as one of the best free agent signings under general manager George Paton’s tenure.

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