Convincing Evidence of Broncos' True Pre-Draft Opinion of Bo Nix Emerges

The Denver Broncos have said that Bo Nix was always their "guy" in the NFL draft. Well...

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix. / Ben Swanson/Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos made Bo Nix the sixth quarterback taken off the board in the 2024 NFL draft. Selected at pick No. 12 overall, Nix followed Caleb Williams (Chicago/No. 1), Jayden Daniels (Washington/2), Drake Maye (New England/3), Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta/8), and J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota/10) in order of being drafted.

In the immediate aftermath, national pundits and self-professed 'draftniks' mostly panned the Nix pick. Many of the critics talked as if Nix was somehow little more than quarterback leavings that the Broncos had no choice but to concede to at No. 12.

That was the outside nose. Internally, the Broncos were thrilled.

Nix was the target all along, according to Broncos head coach Sean Payton. But, of course, Payton would say that. It's the type of run-of-the-mill coach-speak relative to a first-round pick that we've come to expect to hear, let alone a highly drafted quarterback.

However, evidence has since emerged that corroborates Payton's claim about Nix always being Denver's top target. Namely, it came in the form of Payton's former FOX Sports colleague and host of the Unbreakable podcast — Jay Glazer — spilling the beans on an episode with the Broncos head coach.

Glazer reminded Payton of a cockamamy idea he had leading up to draft day, where the Broncos head coach would fly into Nix's home town, and be waiting outside of his house to personally inform him that he was being drafted, instead of the perfunctory phone call that a prospect gets from his new NFL team. For various reasons, Glazer dissuaded Payton from following through on that idea, not the least of which was the possibility that Nix would be off the board by No. 12.

Payton and the Broncos front office were quite confident, though, that their counterparts throughout league front offices would fall prey to the "NFL train," which, by that point, had fashioned the trope that Nix was a noodle-armed system quarterback destined for Day 2. Payton saw greatness on tape, thinking to himself, "We can't be the only ones seeing this."

"Two things: No. 1, you have to pay attention to that NFL train but don’t ever get on it. And what I mean by that [is] don’t ever get on that train and then base your decisions (on it) because, collectively, we all don’t know who’s driving it," Payton told Glazer. "When I hear people say, 'This guy, he could have gotten in the second or third round,' I know they don’t know what they’re talking about."

After spending a year in NFL media on the heels of a two-decade-plus run in the upper echelon of the league's coaching ranks, Payton was aware of how media tropes and online mock drafts can create a "train" of hype that even front-office personnel — the very experts paid handsomely to be above the fray — are vulnerable to. In a draft class top-heavy with quarterback talent, Payton felt quite strongly that Nix would be there for the Broncos.

"All of those things can move scouts and coaches and their grading and their opinion, so trust what you see. Tune out the white noise when you’re trying to evaluate anybody," Payton told Glazer. "It comes up all the time. 20 years ago, you didn’t have the resources and now, it’s amazing. It’s almost like the tail wagging the dog sometimes relative to—if you don’t work at it, you’ll find yourself, at least in the first round, paying attention to these mocks, and so how do you tune that out? I think that’s important. I do think people have more access to video and more access to workouts and more access to all of these things, but honestly, in my opinion, humbly, I don’t know how many great evaluators are out there. It’s a tough position to evaluate to begin with, and I think once we knew that Bo was the guy we were going to draft, we knew that we couldn’t be the only team seeing what we were seeing. And come to find out, we weren’t. I’m just going to say that relative to teams behind us."

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Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix. / Ben Swanson/Denver Broncos

"When I hear people say, 'This guy, he could have gotten in the second or third round,' I know they don’t know what they’re talking about."

- Sean Payton on Bo Nix

There were no guarantees that Nix wouldn't be drafted before the Broncos went on the clock, though, which could be why Payton ultimately took Glazer's advice not to visit Nix on draft day. But the conversation between Payton and a bonafide NFL insider — and two obvious friends — did add much credence to Nix always being Denver's guy.

It also shows why Payton and Broncos GM George Paton haven't lost one wink of sleep over the purported "reach" on Nix. It was a top-heavy draft class and there were a handful of quarterbacks who flashed the type of seductive athletic tools that would see them taken off the board in the top 10.

The teams behind the Broncos? Payton and company knew that Nix wouldn't last until the Broncos were back on the board again late-Day 2. Thus, it wasn't even a choice. Whether by Denver's hand or another team's, Nix was always going to be a first-round pick, even in a stacked quarterback class, and there was no way Payton was going to risk missing out on an ideal triggerman for his offense.

As for all the hand-wringing and pearl-clutching over Nix being a "system" quarterback, Payton is laughing all the way to the proverbial bank. When the Broncos scout a quarterback, they remove all of the "gimme" throws from the prospect's tape. That's what a good chunk of Oregon's offensive system is designed to produce: gimmes.

With those types of plays out of the equation, a prospect's film becomes much more exposed and stark, allowing the Broncos to really hone in on a quarterback's true strengths and weaknesses.

Everything Payton saw on film, sans the gimme plays, left him utterly impressed by Nix. The Oregon QB was top-of-class in all the metrics that matter, which is why you can still detect a strong tone of derision when Payton broaches the subject of Nix's pre-draft reputation — a scouting fugazi that was mostly inflated and distorted by so-called draft "experts" online.

"There was a lot made of his offense. I’ve heard it a million times. ‘He led college football with the most quick throws.’ We got it. We understand all that," Payton said of Nix on Glazer's show. "Then when we analytically remove all the quick throws from every quarterback, he was still first in his class, first in his class, first in his class, accuracy, touchdowns—all these recordables. Sacks… the guy gets rid of the ball. There’s so many things that we kept seeing on tape. And then we saw down-the-field arm talent. We’re seeing it right now. So these guys can only run their offense that they’re being asked to run. Our job is to project, ‘Can they run this offense?’ And we think he can.” 

Since May, Payton has raved about Nix both on Glazer's show and at nearly every podium opportunity at Broncos HQ. Payton has now had his hands on the former Heisman Trophy finalist for two full months, and the early takeaway? He's as advertised.

"It still gets back down to the vision," Payton told Glazer. "What do you see? Because there was a lot about the underneath throws, the offense, can’t throw the ball down the field, and look, the good thing is, we’re getting a chance to see. We’ve seen it now for three weeks.”

Those comments were given in early June. The Broncos' offseason training program is now in the books, and the last thing Payton said on the Nix subject echoed his previous remarks.

“Overall... it’s what we saw and what we evaluated and that is encouraging,” Payton said on June 12.

Nix still has a long row left to hoe in earning the Broncos' starting quarterback job. He's staring down the barrel of a long, grueling training camp and preseason slate as he faces off with Broncos incumbent Jarrett Stidham (who also had a productive offseason), and veteran newcomer Zach Wilson.

The Broncos drafted Nix because, on tape and in person, they identified a future franchise quarterback. If all of those traits that so allured Payton have indeed been made manifest since Nix donned the Orange and Blue, then it's only a short matter of time before the future becomes the present at quarterback.

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