New Metric Hints Broncos QB Bo Nix is Already Among NFL's Best

Look at the company Bo Nix is in with this particular ranking. He's already a top-flight quarterback.

Dec 2, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) drops back to pass the ball in the first quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

When Bo Nix was an NFL draft prospect the Denver Broncos were scouting, Sean Payton requested all his "gimme" throws in the Oregon offense to be removed from his film library. What emerged, according to Payton, was a quarterback who surpassed all of his peers in the 2024 class.

"There was a lot made of his offense. I’ve heard it a million times," Payton said back in the offseason after the Broncos drafted Nix No. 12 overall. "‘He led college football with the most quick throws.’ We got it. We understand all that. Then when we analytically remove all the quick throws from every quarterback, he was still first in his class, first in his class, first in his class, accuracy, touchdowns-to-interceptions—all these recordables. Sacks… the guy gets rid of the ball. There’s so many things that we kept seeing on tape. And then we saw down-the-field arm talent. We’re seeing it right now."

The Broncos were seeing it in the offseason program, and that continued through training camp and the preseason. But the 2024 regular season didn't quite begin on the same footing, with Nix looking very much like a rookie in the first quarter of the campaign.

But with 13 games under his belt now as a starter, the Broncos sit at 8-5 and in control of the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff picture. And with that big of a sample size, the truth of Nix as a quarterback is being revealed.

One such metric that measures it is sack rate on third down. Nix is the sixth-toughest quarterback to sack on the 'money down,' according to The 33rd Team, with a 6.6% rate.

QBs getting sacked on 3rd Down at the lowest rate

Derek Carr - 1.4%
Josh Allen - 5.0%
Lamar Jackson - 5.9%
Jordan Love - 6.3%
Brock Purdy - 6.3%
Bo Nix - 6.6%
Jameis Winston - 7.2%
Kirk Cousins - 8.3%
Jayden Daniels - 8.7%
Kyler Murray - 8.8% pic.twitter.com/0ScuKSI1uN

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 5, 2024

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It's not just third down; Nix is stubborn about taking sacks. He's only been taken down 19 times this season — the fourth-fewest in the NFL — and a few of those sacks he has on record were of the self-made variety, with him running out of bounds short of the sticks in the first two games.

Payton has often talked about how watching Nix run his offense against top-level NFL competition, he just feels safe, like he's in good hands. That's how Broncos Country felt when Peyton Manning was under center and, of course, John Elway. That's how New Orleans Saints fans felt about Drew Brees.

And that's now how Broncos Country is feeling with Nix. Monday night's win over the Cleveland Browns was a barn-burner, and while Nix made some incredible plays, he did throw two interceptions after going three straight games without doing so.

That gives Nix eight interceptions on the season, which is three-quarters of the way through the season. He'll probably finish around 10 or 11 picks his rookie season, which is absolutely wild, especially considering how much Payton has had Nix spinning it the last eight games.

Nix has passed for 2,842 yards and 17 touchdowns, while rushing for 304 yards and four additional scores. Throw in his receiving touchdown in Baltimore, and Nix has 22 total touchdowns, the most by an NFL rookie quarterback.

And yet, he's been ranked at No. 19 in NFL.com's Week 14 QB Index, below both Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams? That's a laugh, but it's a likely harbinger of how the Offensive Rookie of the Year race is poised to shake out.

Nix was named Rookie of the Month of October, and followed that up by winning Rookie of the Week for the first three frames of November. And yet, the Rookie of the Month of November award went to Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers.

Bowers is a great player but his November paled in comparison to Nix's. Not only that, but how do you avoid giving the monthly award to the rookie who won the weekly award within that month three of the four weeks?

This is what Nix is up against. The media's bias toward the Broncos feels like it's still alive and well, and Payton's presence in Denver may be intensifying it.

What that means is that Nix will have to be twice as good as Daniels in this final frame of the season to fully and finally eclipse him as the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Stay tuned.

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