Broncos at Bucs: 5 Bold Predictions

The forecasting of the Denver Broncos' Week 3 tilt continues.

Sep 15, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) huddles with teammates in the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are 0-2 on the season, and they're hoping to get on the board with an underdog win on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. None of my bold predictions have come true for the Broncos thus far — that's why they're bold — but they came close to making four happen despite vastly underachieving as a team.

Let's dive in.

Bo Nix Continues to Struggle

Okay, so perhaps this one's not so bold, but it's clear that Nix isn’t used to the type of defenses that have been thrown his way, and he won’t get a break this week. Tampa head coach Todd Bowles is a creative defensive mind who disguises what he's doing pre-snap. Simulated pressures are the name of the game in the NFL, and Bowles is the protege of the guy who made them so relevant in the NFL: Rex Ryan. 

These creative and disguised looks, along with the type of coverage the Bucs play, will be reminiscent of the Seattle Seahawks for the Broncos. It will keep coverage tight and generate pressure on Nix by confusing the offensive line and getting free rushers.

It'll also put a premium on winning one-on-one matchups as the Broncos' 13th-most expensive offensive line has struggled in this department.

Prediction: These issues lead to a three-interception day for Nix, who also continues to create problems for himself by throwing off his back foot. 

Broncos Break 100 Rush Yards on Designed Runs

The key to this prediction is designed runs, which exclude quarterback scrambles but can include quarterback-schemed runs. While the Broncos have 163 rushing yards, only 121 have come on designed runs, the other 42 being quarterback scrambles.

Denver's season-high for total rushing yards is 99, but only 64 were on designed runs. That came against the Seahawks, with 64 yards and 57 on designed runs, last week in Denver's home opener. 

Bucs defensive linemen Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey are likely both out for this game, which helps the Broncos' run game, especially the former. The Bucs allowed 134 yards on designed runs against the Detroit Lions, who have a vastly superior running back corps compared to the Broncos.

That said, here's the actual prediction: the Broncos' struggling run game does get going somewhat as they break 100 yards on designed runs, but it comes with poor efficiency as Sean Payton commits to the run game. 

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Broncos Held Sackless

Baker Mayfield has been sacked six times this season, five of which came against the Lions last week as Aidan Hutchinson took over the game. The Broncos will be without Baron Browning, but they still have quality pass rushers.

This will be a battle as the Buccaneers have a solid pass-blocking unit, though they are without their starting right tackle, Luke Goedeke. Justin Skule will start at right tackle, and he was the one who allowed Hutchinson to take over the game. 

This time, Mayfield and the Bucs' offense have a plan to limit the negative impact and negate the Broncos' pass rush. The Broncos are second in the NFL on pressure rate and tied for the 11th-most by a unit.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers offensive line has allowed pressure at the 11th-lowest rate, with the seventh-fewest pressures.

Here are the details of the prediction: The Broncos will generate pressure, but a quicker tempo passing game keeps them from netting a sack in this one. 

Broncos Allow 300-Plus Pass Yards & 100-Plus Rush Yards

While the Broncos defense has been a bright spot for the first two games, it is poised to collapse in the Florida heat. If the Broncos offense can’t get going early and sustain drives, the defense will tire out, and the Bucs will take advantage of that.

There is a chip on the Bucs' shoulder, especially their quarterback. Tampa won’t pull its foot off the pedal, even if the Broncos defense is exhausted. This leads to a huge day offensive for the Buccaneers as they seemingly pass and run at will against the Broncos. 

Prediction: The Broncos’ defense does start the game strong, but there is only so long they can hold up without the offense giving them help, and 400-plus yards are relinquished to Mayfield and company. 

Bucs Keep Broncos Out of End Zone 

Now, it could be said the Broncos are keeping themselves out of the end zone. Through two games, they've struggled mightily to punch it in.

The Broncos have faced two formidable defenses, though, and the Buccaneers are a third, even without a few crucial pieces. The Bucs are a well-run and disguised defense that will make it hard for Nix to read what they are doing pre-snap.

Prediction: Between their own ongoing issues and the problems the Buccaneers create, the Broncos fail to score a touchdown. 

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