Broncos Must Win These Key Matchups To Beat Chargers

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers. Which team has the advantage?

The Denver Broncos received a mini-bye ahead of Week 6. It's a timely rest, as Monday night's bout will be the toughest opponent Denver will have faced in its first six games. 

The Broncos are looking to get back to winning ways against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football. While Denver sits in third place in the AFC West, the Chargers are in second place with a 3-2 record. 

If the Broncos can pull out a win, they'd take over second place from the Chargers due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Broncos haven't faced an opponent that can put points on the board with ease like the Chargers, as they're averaging 24.4 points per game. As for their defense, the Chargers are struggling, allowing the NFL's third-most points per game with 27.2. 

There are no more excuses for the Broncos. They had a mini-bye week to prepare for this game. 

That was plenty of time to figure out the issues on offense and take the steps to fix them. The Broncos should have success against the Chargers' defense.

This is, essentially, the make-or-break game for the Broncos' offense. With that said, let's get into the key matchups that'll decide this game. 

Russell Wilson vs. Chargers Defense

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The Chargers haven't met expectations this season, ranking 13th in Football Outsiders' DVOA,. while allowing 386.2 yards and 27.2 points per game. In addition, with the caliber of quarterbacks they have faced, from Patrick Mahomes to Davis Mills, the Chargers are averaging 237.8 passing yards per game. 

Can Russell Wilson take advantage of a struggling defense? 

Out of 30 quarterbacks, Wilson ranks 26th in completion percentage at 59.4%. He has dealt with the second-most drops and the highest percentage of dropped passes in the NFL, but when you adjust his completion percentage for the drops, he ranks 25th out of 30 in adjusted completion percentage. 

While the drops are bad, Wilson isn't playing well enough, even when factoring them in. That doesn't consider how some drops are on him because he doesn't throw with touch. His high velocity makes some passes hard to secure for the receivers. 

The Chargers play a two-high safety system that Wilson struggles with, and they have plenty of playmakers on the back end to capitalize on his mistakes and issues. The issues of locking onto receivers before the snap, not making his reads with a good tempo, holding the ball too long, missing open receivers, and poor placement. Denver has to worry about his throwing arm now as he deals with a shoulder injury. 

There is a serious question here. Can Wilson recognize his faults and adjust? Can the head coach make the needed adjustments to help with Wilson's issues and cover his injury? Both remain to be seen, and even with a struggling Chargers defense, they have the advantage. 

Advantage: Chargers. 

Broncos Pass Protection vs. Chargers Pass Rushers

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Denver suffered a big blow by losing Garett Bolles for the season. While he has struggled the last couple of games, Bolles was still Denver's best offensive lineman. 

So now the question is, where will the Broncos turn to replace him? Will it be Calvin Anderson, who has played 14 snaps this season, or flipping Cam Fleming from right to left tackle, which has been rumored? 

No matter what, the Broncos are not in an ideal position, even with Billy Turner expected back and the Chargers being without Joey Bosa. 

Khalil Mack, who has had a few down years mixed with injuries, seems to be on a resurgence this season. He has 19 total pressures with five sacks. The Chargers are turning to Chris Rumph II to replace Bosa, who has been solid. 

There are too many questions about the Broncos' offensive line not to give the advantage to the Chargers. Even the Chargers' interior can get solid pressure, and the Broncos' interior offensive line has been terrible. 

If Turner and Quinn Meinerz are back for the game, how much will that help a unit struggling at every spot and losing its best player? Lloyd Cushenberry III and Dalton Risner remain problems on the interior, so Morgan Fox, Jerry Tillery, and Sebastian Joseph-Day should be able to do well. 

Advantage: Chargers. 

Broncos Rushing Game vs. Chargers Run Defense

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The Chargers are not a great run defense, and if their offensive line can get a boost from Turner and Meinerz in the starting lineup, they should look to be a heavy run team. While giving up 130.4 rush yards per game, the Chargers' run defense ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA. 

However, the Broncos' rushing offense has not done well and ranks 23rd in rushing offense DVOA. It's also hard to trust Melvin Gordon to hold onto the ball. It would depend on what the Broncos' offensive line does. The Broncos' run game should do well if they can do well and generate push. 

They must have that success to help pressure off the injured and struggling Russell Wilson. 

Neither side has an advantage here. The Chargers are not a great run defense, and the Broncos' rushing offense has so many questions to be successful. 

Advantage: Wash. 

Broncos Passing Game vs. Chargers Coverage

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The Chargers are 12th in passing defense DVOA. They have given up a lot of passing yards to opposing quarterbacks and are a struggling unit. However, L.A. still matches up extremely well against a Broncos passing offense with no consistency. 

So far this season, Denver's passing offense has been built around a few big plays, with some luck involved. Unfortunately, that isn't a winning recipe, and with how Wilson has been playing and his injury, it gets even worse for the Broncos. 

The big addition to the Chargers' secondary, J.C. Jackson, has struggled all season. Denver might be able to get some good shots here, but it falls back on the quarterback to see it and make a good throw. 

Bryce Callahan has played well for L.A. in the slot, and there will definitely be a chip on his shoulder for this game. Asante Samuel, Jr. has also been playing decently this season. All three have allowed two touchdowns each this season, but Callahan has a couple of interceptions, and Samuel has one. Samuel has also broken up four passes, with Callahan and Jackson having one each. 

The Chargers are an opportunistic defense, and the Broncos haven't shown the ability to avoid shooting themselves in the foot. This gives the advantage to the Chargers. Denver has to prove they can play clean in the passing game before believing they can do it. 

Advantage: Chargers. 

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Justin Herbert vs. Broncos Defense

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Herbert has been the real deal. He is among the leaders in touchdown passes, among the fewest interceptions, and effectively moving the ball. Undoubtedly, he is the toughest quarterback the Broncos have faced so far this season. 

While the Broncos have done well against Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, and Matt Ryan, they have also had their issues. Can the unit hold up to being consistently challenged by a quarterback who isn't holding back their offense? 

However, the question comes down to how much Herbert will be held back by the game plan and play calls from the Chargers coaches. That could give a break to the Broncos' defense.

The unit has done well, there is no doubt about that, but this is the first real challenge the Broncos will face. Derek Carr had a solid game against them, though it was mostly the running game that gashed Denver. 

Nevertheless, Carr did enough when needed. Herbert is an even tougher challenge because he can make throws Carr can only dream of. 

This is an exciting matchup to test whether the Broncos' defense is a great or just a good unit. 

Advantage: Chargers. 

Broncos Pass Rushers vs. Chargers Pass Protection

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While Herbert has been great, his offensive line has struggled to keep him clean. It hasn't mattered much, as he has been one of the better quarterbacks this season when under pressure. The Broncos pass rushers have to get home. 

The Broncos have done a great job getting pressure all season, but they must get home consistently against Herbert. It won't be as easy as it was against Ryan, as Herbert has mobility. 

While the Chargers have allowed Herbert to be the third most pressures quarterback, he has the lowest pressure-to-sack rate in the NFL. Only 6.6% of his pressures turn into sacks because of how he can get rid of the ball or use his legs. The next closest is 10.4%. 

The advantage here goes to the Broncos, as they have shown the ability to get pressure. This matchup is about the pass rushers vs. the pass protection. Denver should get its fair share of pressures, but can the team turn them into sacks?

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Defense vs. Chargers Running Game

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While Denver's rushing offense has been lackluster, the Chargers have been slightly worse, ranking 24th in rush offense DVOA. The issue is Denver has been inconsistent against the run. 

Austin Ekeler is a good back, but he has consistently struggled against the Broncos as a rusher. He has two rushing touchdowns in nine games and averages 31.3 rush yards per game. 

Ekeler is the type of running back that the Broncos should be able to handle. However, he isn't a big, powerful back, which is what the Broncos have struggled with more than anything. Ekeler will still have some solid runs, but it isn't likely for him to take over the game. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Coverage vs. Chargers Passing Game

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This is a great matchup for the coverage unit vs. the weapons. However, there is a significant concern with Damarri Mathis stepping in for Ronald Darby. Herbert will likely look to pick on the rookie. 

The Broncos will have to bring it against the Chargers' passing offense. Herbert's placement is sometimes unreal, so perfect coverage isn't always enough. Instead, the Broncos' corners must be physical and disrupt routes without going overboard and drawing flags. 

Denver has to have a clean game, especially on defense, as they can't afford to give the Chargers any extra yards. The Broncos need to watch it when jumping the snap, as Herbert does a good job drawing defenders offside. 

This is a significant test for the Broncos' secondary; hopefully, they are up to the task. The advantage goes slightly to the Chargers because Denver is starting a rookie in this tough matchup. However, this matchup could easily go hard for either side. 

Advantage: Slightly Chargers. 

Nathaniel Hackett vs. Brandon Staley

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Staley is an aggressive coach, and it works out often, but when it doesn't, he seems to recoil hard and be less aggressive for a short time. 

The advantage is for the Chargers, and it doesn't have much to do with Staley as a coach. It's all about Hackett. The advantage will go to the opponent until he shows he can do an adequate job consistently. 

Hackett can't keep doing such a poor job and looking way over his head. If he does, being one-and-done wouldn't be surprising. 

Advantage: Chargers. 

Bottom Line

Divisional games are always tough, and the Chargers have a lot of advantages they can exploit. While the Broncos' defense has done well, Justin Herbert is the best quarterback they will have faced so far this season. 

Can the Broncos hold their own when the quarterback isn't holding the offense back, as was the case in four of their first five games? 

A win would be nice, but at the very least, the Broncos need to show signs of getting everything put together offensively. If they don't, the seat under Nathaniel Hackett will get hotter. 

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