3 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Chargers on TNF

Here's how the Denver Broncos clinch a playoff berth at SoFi Stadium.

DENVER, CO: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) is sacked by Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) during a game between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO on October 13, 2024. / Kevin Langley / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

'Tis the season for joy, cheer, and the NFL playoff race, as the 9-5 Denver Broncos travel for a consequential matchup against the 8-6 Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football.

Denver can clinch a playoff spot with a victory over L.A. after both teams swapped AFC playoff positions last Sunday with the Broncos’ 31-13 win against the Indianapolis Colts and the Chargers’ 40-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Broncos enter the divisional matchup as the AFC's No. 6 seed amid a four-game winning streak against the No. 7 Chargers, who won their first meeting in Denver in Week 6, 23-16.

Because both teams boast a winning record and a postseason trajectory, Broncos head coach Sean Payton approved the NFL’s flexing of the Week 16 contest into primetime action, making Denver the only team to play two Thursday night road games this season. 

Payton has already surpassed the Broncos' win total in 2023 and is priming his team to earn its playoff birth since 2015. Meanwhile, first-year Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh has quickly transformed a team that previously went 5-12 last season.

Denver enters SoFi Stadium with a 2-0 primetime record this year. What'll it take for the Broncos to come out on top and clinch a playoff berth? Let’s review three keys to a Broncos victory against the Chargers on TNF.

Nik at Night: Punish Herbert

Broncos outside linebacker Nik Bonitto is arguably the NFL’s hottest defender, having scored touchdowns in each of the last two games. The third-year pass rusher from Oklahoma has emerged as a rising Defensive Player of the Year candidate, becoming the first defender since J.J. Watt in 2014 to record double-digit sacks and two touchdowns in the same season.

The 6-foot-3, 240-pound Bonitto is credited with 11.5 sacks, 41 tackles (28 solo), 14 tackles for a loss, 20 QB hits, an interception, and two forced fumbles. He's currently tied for third in total sacks and will look to continue his pass-rushing tear against a Chargers offensive line that has given up 38 total sacks on quarterback Justin Herbert in 14 games this season.

Last Sunday against Tampa Bay, Herbert was sacked three times by a Bucs defense that also forced an interception amid a barrage of defensive pressure that the Chargers' O-line couldn’t fend off. There’s only been one game all season in which L.A. kept Herbert upright and without a sack as the Chargers' O-line is on pace to allow the most recorded sacks in Herbert’s five-year career.

Meanwhile, the Broncos' pass-rushing posse continues its streak of dominance as fellow outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper aims to hit double-digit sack totals by the season’s end in addition to front-seven defenders John Franklin-Myers, Zach Allen, and Jonah Elliss, each of whom are credited with at least five sacks.

Herbert popped up on this week’s injury report as limited with an ankle, indicating that a painful evening could be in store for the Pro Bowler, led by Denver’s burgeoning defensive star, Bonitto. 

Ladd Fad? Shut Him Down

Sep 15, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey (15) with the ball in the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey may have started this season as an under-the-radar rookie, but heading into a tightening playoff race, the Broncos will surely prioritize covering the sneaky, 6-foot, 185-pound playmaker.

A second-round pick and two-time national champion at Georgia, McConkey leads L.A. in targets (88), receptions (63), yards (873), and first downs (42) in 13 games played this season. Each game, the talented greenhorn makes himself a favorite target of Herbert, averaging 13.9 yards per reception. 

After a quiet performance in the Chargers’ 23-16 Week 6 victory in Denver that included four receptions for 43 yards, McConkey has seen a significant increase in targets and involvement in Harbaugh’s offense in both medium and long-range passes. Broncos starting cornerback Riley Moss’ availability for the TNF tilt is still up in the air after he suffered a knee injury in Week 12, and the team dodged a proverbial bullet with Patrick Surtain II’s minor ankle sprain last week against the Colts. 

All signs point to PS2 strapping up for the divisional game, as he’ll be joined by fellow cornerbacks Kris Abrams-Draine and Damarri Mathis in what should be a collective effort to shut down the Chargers' passing game. The Broncos secondary rallied against the Colts, limiting quarterback Anthony Richardson to just 172 yards passing and zero touchdowns, picking him off twice in a performance it will hope to repeat on a short week in L.A.

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Dance With the One Who Brought You: Nix & the Run Game

Oct 13, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) scrambles in the second half against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

In what can only be described as a puzzling and frustrating reality of their offensive identity, the Broncos boast the NFL's longest active streak (31 games) in which a running back has failed to eclipse 100 yards rushing in a game.

Broncos Country continues to search for the primary perpetrator of this ineffective aspect of Denver’s offense. Possible culprits include the O-line, the running back room, and even Payton, the offensive play-caller. While the reason for the Broncos' maligned rushing attack continues to perplex the masses, it’s safe to say that the running back position will be prioritized in both free agency and the NFL draft next offseason.

For now, I’d urge Payton to stick with the ‘dance with the one who brought you' approach. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix may be the third leading rusher on the team, but he’s tied for the most rushing touchdowns (four) and has consistently been the Broncos' most effective ground threat throughout the season.

Nix currently leads the team with 31 rushing first downs and has the second-longest rush this season (32 yards). His mobility has forced opponents to respect the line of scrimmage and perimeter, as each is vulnerable and susceptible to the rookie earning yards with his legs when he needs to. 

While I’m thrilled to see Nix’s progression as a pocket passer despite a poor outing against the Colts — which resulted in three interceptions and three touchdowns — it would behoove Payton and the Broncos' O-line to keep the Chargers defense guessing with some designed QB runs or run/pass options. 

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield lit up a Chargers secondary to the tune of 288 passing yards and four scores last Sunday. Still, it’s important to remember that he offers mobility with a gunslinging mentality in and out of the pocket. Mayfield only recorded 25 rushing yards on two attempts, but his awareness and willingness to consistently look downfield made him a threat against an L.A. defense that allows 336 yards per game.

By hook or by crook, Nix is proving each week that he’s willing to do whatever is needed to win the ball game. Remember, the talented Rookie of the Year candidate has already thrown, rushed, and caught touchdowns this season, proving he’s the straw that stirs the Broncos' drink.

Run and gun could be the Broncos' continued theme for the remainder of the season, should they make a postseason run beginning on Thursday night in L.A. 

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