3 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Chargers in Week 17
After the 7-8 Denver Broncos were swept by Las Vegas' interim head coach Rich Bisaccia as their postseason aspirations ground to a screeching halt. FiveThirtyEight lists the Broncos' playoff probability at less than 0.1% while the 8-7 Los Angeles Chargers have a 33% chance to make the tournament.
As Broncos Country laments over the likelihood of enduring another head-coaching and quarterback carousel, and eventual ownership change, another season has come and gone without winning football or significant contention towards a championship.
For the final road game of the 2021 season, the Broncos travel to SoFi Stadium as a 7.5-point underdog. Out of the playoffs? Check. Coaching and staffing shakeup? Check. Pending team sale? Check.
So, what motivation will these Broncos use to strap it up on Sunday?
Try in-game evaluations that directly correlate to the makeup of next year’s squad. It’s no secret GM George Paton made his bones in the NFL as a scout and is familiar with inter-league evaluations in addition to collegiate scouting.
Paton's maiden draft class as Broncos GM has already started to shine and is destined to take the reigns in 2022, making it imperative for players to execute fundamental, tough football. Do the Broncos have a shot to win this game, in light of 13 players going on the reserve/COVID list over the last three days?
Let’s review three keys to victory against the Chargers.
Lock or Bust
Vic Fangio has been wildly unsuccessful with a 19-28 record in almost three full seasons as Denver's head coach. He’s shown stubborn resistance to change and has dug his heels in on a variety of issues in 2021 including the starting quarterback for the Broncos.
Fangio has unquestionably preferred Teddy Bridgewater to Drew Lock as the team’s signal-caller, but the decision for QB1 against the Chargers doesn’t have anything to do with preference at all.
Player safety must be Fangio's priority second to winning at any level of football but especially in the NFL. After suffering a scary concussion from Week 15’s loss to Cincinnati, Bridgewater missed last Sunday’s game against the Raiders and enters week's matchup in concussion protocol.
This latest injury is the team captain’s second concussion of the season and Bridgewater has suffered lower-leg issues and massive amounts of discomfort in recent weeks. On Wednesday, Fangio seemed to confirm that Drew Lock is trending towards starting in L.A. this Sunday.
Hopefully, this is how it unfolds as we’ve previously seen Fangio force Bridgewater into action multiple times this season when Teddy could barely walk let alone play ball. This would be the third-year Lock's second start of the season after completing 15-of-22 passes for 153 yards in the Broncos' most recent loss to the Raiders.
While he didn’t throw or rush for a touchdown, Lock showed he could play a game without turning the ball over and was hardly the problem, yet far from the solution for the 2021 Broncos.
Bruise and Batter Herbert
There’s no denying that Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is the real deal in the Broncos' AFC West backyard. In his second year of professional football, the former Oregon standout has demonstrated an elite level of processing defenses in real-time that complements his freakish athleticism and arm strength.
This season, the 6-foot-6, 240-pound QB has thrown for 4,394 yards and 33 touchdowns with 14 interceptions in 15 games. Herbert has also rushed the ball 57 times for 299 yards, 26 first downs, and three additional scores, showing he’s a dual-threat QB that can beat you with his wheels and his rocket arm.
Oddly enough, Fangio has gotten the better of Herbert in the last few meetings specifically in Week 12’s matchup in Denver that saw the Broncos pound the Bolts 28-13. At first glance, the Broncos' secondary deserved the lion's share of the credit as the defensive backs continually camouflaged their coverages and assignments with a variety of false indications amid Herbert’s pre-snap reads.
The confusion caused by Fangio resulted in Broncos' rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain II intercepting the Pro Bowl QB twice, which earned him AFC Defensive Player of the Week. But it wasn’t just the cornerbacks and safeties that got the better of Herbert.
The film revealed continuous pressure from the Broncos' defensive line in the trenches. Denver’s defense recorded three sacks on Herbert compliments of Deshawn Williams, McTelvin Agim, and Stephen Weatherly. At times, Herbert was able to escape trouble but was consistently pressured and had a defender in his face or near his feet most of the game.
If Fangio’s precious defense has any hope of surviving a QB that can embarrass opposing teams, it'll have to knock him down hard and repeatedly at SoFi stadium.
Play with the Lead or Else
Fangio’s teams are 1-23 when trailing at halftime, making the Broncos a virtual lock to lose when faced with a deficit midway through a game. Fangio’s squad is on the cusp of finishing in last place in the AFC West division for back-to-back seasons after going 5-11 in 2020.
If the Broncos lose to the Chargers on Sunday and continue their skid against Kansas City in the season finale, that’ll spell a new low. 30 losses in three seasons is a very probable outcome for the defensive ‘mastermind.’
Let that settle in if it hasn’t occurred to you over the last three years since Fangio was introduced to Broncos Country without bothering to don business-casual slacks. Surely averaging 10 losses per season is poor enough to lay bear the importance of Denver getting and playing with the lead, especially with the league’s most expensive defense which was handpicked by Fangio and delivered with rushed shipping by Paton.
Then again, Fangio’s few claims to success as the Broncos head man comes against the Chargers as he's 4-1 all time and most recently defeated them 28-13 in Week 12. We all know that Fangio is as connected to the Broncos' offense as Santa Claus is to Halloween.
But in the interest of trying to end 2021 on a winning note, it’d behoove Fangio to implement a sense of urgency and energy against the Bolts.
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