3 Critical Stats Reveal Broncos' Blueprint to Beating Commanders

It's time to talk Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders, by the numbers.

Week 2 of the NFL season brings the Washington Commanders to the Mile High City as the Denver Broncos look to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. Will Sean Payton and his coaching staff learn from last week’s loss and extend Denver's record to 1-1? 

The Broncos had the Las Vegas Raiders on the ropes but went away from what was working. Denver obviously had a solid game plan by attacking weaknesses, and it can do the same against the Commanders. 

There are many matchups and keys to victory that can be examined, but I'm going to break down three numbers that indicate an edge for the Broncos — if exploited correctly.

38.2%

Media and fans alike have lamented the lack of explosive plays vs. the Raiders. Many have asked why the Broncos didn’t throw deep (even though the defense dictated the short passing game). 

Against the Commanders, the Broncos had better be careful not to have a knee-jerk reaction after the backlash. The Commanders’ defense allowed only a 38.2% completion percentage when offenses passed deep last season, which is lower than the NFL average. 

Furthermore, Washington picks off a deep pass one out of every 17 throws versus the average of one out of 18. The Broncos must be very tactical when it comes to the deep pass. 

The Commanders, defense is no joke. The Broncos offense needs to establish an effective running game and utilize the high-completion-percentage throws that come with the shorter distances to set up the defense for the big pass. 

If Denver's coaches are smart, they will throw the deep pass only a few times and only after the other two tactics are effective.

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5.9

The Commanders have a solid defensive line, but in the second half of last season, they were vulnerable when teams ran at the right side. Teams gained 5.9 yards per carry running behind their left tackle when they needed to establish the run in the first and third quarters. 

If the Broncos want to establish any semblance of a running game, they must run right at Daron Payne and Montez Sweat with quick-hitting run plays. Those plays give the running backs a chance. 

The Broncos can't do it with slow-developing plays because of the Commanders' athletic defensive line. The backside players like Jonathan Allen can get to the running back if there is any delay.

Left tackle Garett Bolles and left guard Ben Powers have to earn their keep by winning their matchups more often than not. If they can, and the running backs can hit the hole with a head of steam, not only will the ground game be effective, but it will open up those deep passes that the media is hounding the coaches about.

4%

After analyzing more than 64,000 drives across 10 NFL seasons, I found that offenses score only 4% of the time when a sack happens at any point during a drive. That is a massive defensive advantage when considering that drives that feature zero sacks score points 34% of the time. 

Last week, the Broncos could not muster any sort of a pass rush. The Broncos allowed long drives by their opponent, which in turn offered their offense only six possessions the entire day, leading to a loss.

The Broncos can't repeat that performance. The Commanders' defense is tough, and the Broncos' offense will need many opportunities to score points. 

If the Broncos register a sack, the Commanders will stall and give the ball back to them. The offensive game plan is designed for more slow and methodical drives, so it's up to the Broncos' defense to give them extra opportunities.

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