5 Bold Predictions For Broncos' Defense in 2023
The Denver Broncos' defense has talent at every position. While the defense is dealing with a coaching change, Vance Joseph's units have traditionally done well with their DVOA rankings.
However, his defenses haven't been top-5, so can Joseph maximize the talent he has to work with in Denver and help the defense reach these bold predictions?
28-Plus Takeaways With 18-Plus INTs
Over the past five seasons, only 22 teams have hit at least 28 takeaways. One of those teams was the 2018 Broncos — Joseph's last year as head coach. The Broncos hit 23 takeaways in 2022, so they're not far from the prediction. If they can stay healthy, the Broncos have a good shot of hitting 28 takeaways, but that is only one part of the bold prediction.
When it comes to picking off at least 18 passes, only 20 teams have done that in the past five seasons. The 2018 Broncos missed that mark with only 17 interceptions, with 15 last season. Patrick Surtain II and Justin Simmons are huge factors in the Broncos hitting this mark. Simmons has averaged almost four interceptions per season in his career, with 16 of his 27 career picks coming in the last three seasons.
For the 28-plus takeaways, the Broncos will need Randy Gregory to stay healthy and be on the field consistently. He forced two fumbles on just 187 snaps in 2022.
The Broncos need him on the field, creating those extra opportunities. Forcing fumbles has been something Gregory has done quite well over recent seasons. Of course, he can force them but will need help recovering the fumbles.
Allow Less Than 33% of Drives to Score
Since 2018, 27 teams have allowed scores on under 33% of drives, including the 2021 Broncos. Denver allowed a score on 35.9% of drives in 2022, so the feat is plausible. The Broncos would need to stay healthy and cornerback Damarri Mathis would need to show growth, but he'll have a lot on his plate.
The 2018 Broncos hit 34.1%, where Joseph was obviously over his head in his swan dive in Denver. He also got close to the mark in 2021 with the Arizona Cardinals, where it was 35.6% of drives. This is the most talent he has had to work with, so can the unit and the coach get under the mark together?
36% Blitz Rate With at Least 25% Pressure Rate & 50-Plus Sacks
Joseph is aggressive, so predicting a blitz at least 36% of the time isn't so bold. That should be the expectation.
Over his four years as a defensive coordinator in Arizona, Joseph's blitz rate was 39.7%, 39.4%, 35.2%, and 34.5%, respectively. He only broke the 25% pressure rate twice during those four years (in 2020 and 2021). His unit reached 48 sacks in 2020, the highest during his tenure in Arizona.
The bold prediction here is the trifecta — all three of them happening. Only three teams in the past five seasons have reached the 36% blitz, with 25%+ pressure and over 50 sacks.
It was achieved by the same team from 2018-2020, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were led by T.J. Watt. In two of the three seasons, the Steelers had two pass rushers with double-digit sacks. Over the three seasons, Pittsburgh averaged about four players reaching five or more sacks, with an average of 13 players per year getting in on a sack.
Over the past couple of seasons, the Broncos have traded away their premiere pass rushers, Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Now the Broncos are betting on a group of injury-prone or unproven players to hit that mark. It's possible if Denver can stay healthy, but that's still a questionable proposition.
Less Than 61.5% of Passes Allowed to be Completed
Since 2018, 26 teams have allowed under 61.5% of passes to be completed, including the 2021 Broncos. Denver went from 60.7% in 2021 to 64.8% in 2022.
Again, though, the key to Denver realizing these predictions is staying healthy. Surtain and Simmons play a big part, but Mathis growing as a player and K'Waun Williams staying on the field will play a large role.
Over his two seasons, Surtain has allowed under 60% completion, but his reputation will lead to Mathis and Williams being challenged far more often. Mathis will have to show significant growth after allowing 70.8% of passes to be caught during his rookie season, with three games allowing 100%, and in two of those games, he was targeted at least five times. Mathis also had three games allowing under 60%, including a 0% in a two-target game and two 50% games with eight targets between the two.
Williams is a good slot corner, but lowering his 69.1% will also help the Broncos reach this bold prediction. There are a lot of variables, with health being the biggest one.
Allow Less Than 100 Rush Yards & a 4.0 Avg. Per Game
This is a two-part bold prediction where it's hard to check both boxes. Over the past five seasons, 27 teams have allowed under 100 rushing yards per game, with 21 of them allowing under four yards per rush.
Of those teams, 19 over five seasons have accomplished both of them. The Broncos have accomplished neither aspect over the past five seasons, and neither has a Joseph-led defense.
In fact, over the last five seasons, the closest Joseph has gotten to his unit reaching these marks was 114.8 yards per game in 2021 and 4.4 yards per rush in 2019. His defenses have always had issues when it comes to defending the run.
It will not only be difficult to complete both tasks, but it's also asking a Joseph defense to be great against the run. Believe it or not, that makes this the boldest prediction of the bunch.
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