Broncos Defense: 10 Bold Predictions for 2023

The Denver Broncos have some talent on defense.

There are reasonable concerns about the Denver Broncos defense. The Broncos had their inconsistencies under former defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and now have a mostly underwhelming Vance Joseph leading the way. 

However, it's still the most talented unit that Joseph has ever coached. The players have the talent to succeed, and reaching these 10 bold predictions would create an excellent unit.

D.J. Jones: 40-Plus Pressures & 30-Plus Stops

Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Jones' career high in pressures was the 30 he picked up in 2022, but in 2021 he picked up 46 stops. He's been close to reaching this bold prediction. In 2022, he missed two games, and how aggressive the scheme is upfront could boost pressure. 

The tricky part of this is getting those stops. While the player has shown the ability, the scheme isn't one to give him many opportunities. 

The focus of the defensive line is to eat up blocks and allow linebackers and safeties to flow through to make the play. That said, Jones is a highly talented player, and having some of the talent around him could see him reach this point. 

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Zach Allen: 8-Plus Sacks w/ 50-Plus Pressures & 30-Plus Stops

Ben Swanson/DenverBroncos.com

According to Pro Football Focus, who don't count half-sacks, Allen picked up a career-high six sacks and 35 pressures in 2022. He's finally coming into his own as a pass rusher, though he has been a strong run defender throughout his career. 

The Broncos gave Allen a big contract because of the run defense, and the upside remains as a pass rusher. He will be a valued and versatile piece on the defensive line under Joseph, who has coached Allen since he entered the NFL. 

Frank Clark: 10-Plus Sacks w/ 60-Plus Pressures

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As a reminder, PFF does not count half-sacks, so their sack numbers do differ from other places. According to PFF, Clark has picked up 23 sacks over the last three seasons while averaging around 50 pressures. So getting to 10 sacks, which he hasn't done since 2018 when you look at official numbers, is extremely bold. 

As for pressures, Clark has broken 60 pressures in a season three times, with the last one being in 2019. With how aggressive Joseph is, there will be plenty of opportunities for Clark to have easy pathways to get after the quarterback. 

Randy Gregory: At least 6 Forced Fumbles

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While the focus of Gregory has been his pass rush ability, when he's on the field, he has also proven to have an excellent ability to punch the ball out. Over the past three seasons, he has forced eight fumbles while playing under 500 snaps and has 10 forced fumbles in his career. 

For the 2022 season, Gregory played 187 snaps and picked up two forced fumbles, which came in his first 66 snaps on defense. If he can keep the same rate of a fumble every 93.5 snaps, he can pick up six fumbles on under 600 snaps. 

Can Denver get those snaps out of Gregory, who has only played more than 500 snaps in a season once in his career? 

Baron Browning: Over 40 Pressures & 8-Plus Sacks

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Browning will have a role for the defense as the third pass rusher in the rotation. The question is when the Broncos will get him back, as he is in doubt for the start of the season. 

There's also a question about how many games Browning will miss, and if he isn't ready by the beginning of the season, he could find himself on injured reserve designated to return, which means he'd have to miss at least four weeks. The PUP list is also possible, which would cause him to miss even more time and the preseason.  

However, if Browning can get and stay on the field, the flashes he showed in 2022 should become more consistent, and he was close to this mark in 2022. In only 14 games in 2022, he picked up 36 pressures and five sacks. 

There are a lot of injury concerns in the edge room, including Browning, which makes any prediction for an edge rusher extra bold. 

Josey Jewell: 3 INTs & 5 Sacks

Ben Swanson/DenverBroncos.com

Jewell is an underrated linebacker, and the scheme changes coming under Joseph should only help him. It's an aggressive scheme, which will see a lot of A-gap blitzing from the linebackers. 

That is a solid part of Jewell's game, as he picked up 2.5 sacks in 2022. A more aggressive scheme upfront helps him get at least 2.5 more to surpass five sacks. 

As for interceptions, he does well in reading quarterbacks when the opportunity is there, as in when he isn't getting caught having to cover the slot receiver. He picked up two interceptions, both on Patrick Mahomes, in 2022, and getting one more could be doable. 

Drew Sanders: 5 Sacks on Under 500 Total Snaps

Ben Swanson/DenverBroncos.com

Sanders is still adjusting to being an off-ball linebacker from being an edge rusher for most of his collegiate career, with the change coming before his 2022 season. On top of that, he now has to adjust to life in the NFL. 

Joseph loves linebackers like this and uses them to add pressure in the A-gaps. In obvious passing situations, like third-and-longs, it wouldn't be surprising to see Sanders sub in for Jewell or Alex Singleton. 

Playing in a role to take advantage of his ability to get after the quarterback would be common sense in a scheme that is aggressive in getting after the quarterback. Reaching this in his rookie year would be a positive boost for a Broncos team that has had issues getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks with any consistency over the past few years. 

Patrick Surtain II: 12 PBUs w/ 4 INT & Allow Under 55% Comps

Gabriel Christus/DenverBroncos.com

With only two seasons under his belt, Surtain is already viewed as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. Last year 14 corners played at least 375 coverage snaps to allow under 55% completions when targeted. Three of these corners had four interceptions or more, and five have at least 12 passes broken up, but only one achieved all three: James Bradberry. 

After this season, Surtain could push for a new contract, and a season like this would easily cement him among the top five corners in the NFL, leading to a big payday for the young corner. He has already come close, as he picked up four interceptions, allowed 57.6% completions, and had eight passes broken up as a rookie. 

What would make it difficult is Surtain already has a reputation with opposing quarterbacks who avoid throwing his way. 

Damarri Mathis: 3 INTs & 10-Plus PBUs

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

With QBs avoiding Surtain, that will push a lot of pressure on Mathis opposite him. In 2022, Mathis played nearly 200 fewer snaps in coverage than Surtain but was targeted three more times. His target rate will again be high, as that is the life that comes when being opposite a corner like Surtain. 

It's on Mathis to make opposing teams pay for it, and picking up three interceptions and at least 10 passes broken up would go a long way. If Mathis can reach those marks, it would create quite the duo for opposing quarterbacks to deal with. 

Also, if both of these corners play to the level that makes these marks even more plausible, it opens up the door for Justin Simmons to have a big year. 

Justin Simmons: Leads the NFL with 8-Plus INTs

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Simmons has a good habit of being in the right place at the right time for a couple of interceptions every year, and you pair that with how well he reads quarterbacks, then you get a lot of interceptions. In two years under Joseph, Simmons picked up five interceptions and followed that up with 20 interceptions over the last four seasons, including a career-high of six in 2022.

If the corners can make it difficult for quarterbacks, that can free up Simmons a lot to go after interceptions. He is close to the mark, but there are things he has to overcome to get to the mark. 

Simmons is a leader on the defense. He shows how valuable he is in a year where his contract status could create issues. 

Simmons' contract runs through 2024, but the Broncos have the ability to free up $14.5 million after the season, which triggers questions. Leading the NFL in interceptions and doubling the highest total a defender has ever had under Joseph would make it clear that Simmons is worth keeping, though it could come on the back of an extension.

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