Mile High Huddle

3 Stats that Show Why Broncos Defense has Exceeded Expectations

Vance Joseph doesn't get the respect he deserves.

Nick Kendell

Aug 25, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph during the first quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Empower Field at Mile High.
Aug 25, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph during the first quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
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“The reports of my death were greatly exaggerated." — Mark Twain.

Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can relate. Not to make Joseph out to be the Broncos’ version of The Office’s Michael Scott, but prior to the season, many fans were ready to completely write him off as a dead man walking and potential scapegoat for a bad season should the team falter in 2024.

There's a lot of football to be played, but so far, the play of the Denver defense under Joseph has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the NFL.

After a historically poor start in 2023, including the Miami Dolphins' infamous 70-20 throttling of the Broncos, Joseph ditched trying to implement and combine the previous defensive regime's scheme under Ejiro Evero and Vic Fangio. Joseph pivoted to what he traditionally does, and while the Broncos defense was not elite, it settled and solidified into a feisty, respectable unit with a penchant for taking the ball away.

In the wake of the massive dead-cap hit suffered from releasing Russell Wilson, the Broncos had to make some tough financial decisions, mainly at the expense of the back seven. Not signing a sure-fire No. 2 cornerback opposite Patrick Surtain II, the Broncos had to let linebacker Josey Jewell walk and replace him with Cody Barton, moved on from potential future Ring-of-Fame player Justin Simmons, and signed former Dolphins backup safety Brandon Jones.

The Broncos secondary had more questions than answers entering this season. Fortunately, the Broncos identified their faulty defensive front play this offseason and made improvements within the aforementioned financial constraints. Adding John Franklin-Myers for a sixth-round draft pick and signing Malcolm Roach to replace Mike Purcell and Jonathan Harris should help the unit, but not necessarily by leaps and bounds.

Color the NFL world surprised. Through the first three weeks of the season, despite the lack of first-round picks on defense (Surtain is the only round-one defensive player on the roster) and salary-cap fallout following the Wilson trade, a Broncos defense that many considered to be one of the least talented in the NFL entering this season is playing at an extremely high level.

Let's examine a few impressive statistical achievements and distinctions thus far.

Stopping the Explosive Play

To this point in the season, Denver’s defense ranks No. 8 in EPA/Play at -0.150, No. 11 in defensive success rate at 40.9%, No. 8 in defensive dropback EPA at -0.164, and No. 12 in defensive rush EPA at -0.131. Denver has also been the second-best defense in the NFL in limiting explosive plays (defined by runs of 10-plus yards or passes of 20-plus yards), with just 10 through three games. 

This Broncos defense has not been elite overall like that of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears, but given the level of investment on that side of the ball, it's truly remarkable just how well Joseph has his unit playing.

The sample size is small, so things can change quickly as injuries mount (Alex Singleton) and the variety of opponents grows, but Denver fielding a top-10 defense wasn't something many were expecting entering this season.

How is a defense with limited talent on paper able to play so much better as the sum of its parts? A lot of that likely comes down to coaching and scheme.

The offensive side of the ball for Denver has many unknowns who've yet to explode onto the scene. The Broncos appear to be on their way to potential long-term building blocks, but many players on the defensive side of the ball have seemingly improved and are looking promising out of the gate or playing at a career-best level.

Rush linebacker Jonathan Cooper and defensive end Zach Allen have been absolute terrors this season, while players like cornerback Riley Moss are flashing constant ability. Denver appears to be developing and getting the best out of its guys on the defensive side of the ball.

A Productive Scheme

The Broncos' defensive scheme is also worth studying. Given how everyone in the NFL has become obsessed with playing safeties deep in zone coverage, Denver is leaning hard into playing Cover 1 this season.  

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Tied for the second-highest Cover 1 rate in the NFL at 40%, Denver is leaving its cornerbacks on relative islands with a single safety back. The Broncos still do utilize more passive coverages in Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6 at 20%, 18%, and 10%, respectively, which falls relatively close to the middle of the league, but Cover 1 and leaving its defensive backs to man up has been Denver's go-to. For the most part, the approach has not burned the Broncos so far.

Obviously, Surtain is the straw that stirs the drink in Denver being able to play so much man coverage. Especially since Joseph has been utilizing Surtain to shadow an opposing team’s No. 1 receiver on many plays. But this type of defense isn’t successful without Moss and Broncos nickel Ja'Quan McMillian also playing at a high level.

Effective Blitzing

The other aspect that makes what the Broncos are doing this season schematically so intriguing is that Joseph is bringing the absolute heat on the opposing team’s quarterback and offensive line. While not getting the credit for being blitz crazy like Brian Flores and his Cover 0 jailbreak blitzes, Joseph has dialed up pressure like no other team in the NFL by a wide margin.

While the actual definition and numbers of Denver’s blitz rate vary, Pro Football Reference has the Broncos blitzing at 45.7% so far this season, followed by the Vikings at 39.3%, Las Vegas Raiders at 37.1%, and Kansas City Chiefs at 35.0%. Denver may not have a singular superstar pass rusher up front (although Allen might be entering the conversation if he keeps this up), but the aggressiveness has been paying off as the Broncos are tied for the highest pressure rate percentage with the New York Jets at 44.7%.

With so much Cover 1 man coverage on the backend and blitzing at the highest rate in the NFL, one would think the Broncos would be prone to giving up explosive passes. However, that is not the case with Denver only having given up two explosive passes this season.

Thanks to quickly getting pressure and therefore forcing the ball to come out quicker, which prevents longer down-the-field routes to develop, solid rallying to the football, sticky cornerbacks in man coverage, and solid open-field tackling in the quick pass game (less so in the run game), Denver has been a unique team schematically so far this season compared to its peers.

The Takeaway

Will Denver continue to play defense at a top-third level going forward? Perhaps the biggest weakness on the defense was the linebacker play entering this season.

The Broncos will now be forced to go the rest of the way without Singleton, their defensive signal-caller. Singleton had played 100% of the Broncos' defensive snaps through three games (including many on his torn ACL in Tampa) compared to Cody Barton with just 54% of snaps and Kristian Welch at 16%. 

Regardless, the perception of malaise surrounding Joseph as the Broncos’ defensive coordinator should be wiped away. He's arguably doing as well of a job as any defensive coordinator in football when considering the team investments made on his side of the field.

This Broncos defense won’t confuse anyone with the Super Bowl 50 heroes 'No Fly Zone,' but this 'Moneyball' defense is surprisingly stingy through three weeks. If the Broncos can go in and shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Jets this week, perhaps the national perspective will start to take note of the job Joseph is doing on defense.

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Nick Kendell

NICK KENDELL

Nick Kendell is a Senior Analyst at Mile High Huddle and has covered the Denver Broncos, NFL, and NFL Draft since 2017. He has covered the NFL Scouting Combine on-site, along with college pro days. Nick co-hosts the popular podcast Broncos For Breakfast and Building the Broncos. 

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