Here's Why the Broncos Drafting an RB in Round 1 Isn't a Slam Dunk

The Denver Broncos aren't locked into drafting a running back in Round 1.

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton. / Mark J Rebilas / Bob Donnan / Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are in a rather enviable position as the 2025 NFL draft draws ever closer.

After landing what appears to be a viable franchise-caliber quarterback with the 12th overall selection in last year’s draft in Bo Nix, a coaching staff and front office in harmony in both evaluating college talent and the NFL's veteran ranks, the ability to develop and maximize the abilities of acquired players, a depth chart with very few holes, and some ascending star players sprinkled across the roster, the Broncos are a team that could be rocketing to the top of the league into Super Bowl contender status.

Analyzing the roster, the Broncos have very few glaring holes following free agency. The team brought back renowned run stuffer D.J. Jones to keep eating up blockers, they added risky but high-upside young defenders to create havoc for opposing offenses in linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga.

The Broncos also went out and acquired arguably the best offensive skill player on the market in tight end Evan Engram to play the elusive “joker” role. A quick once-over of the Broncos’ depth chart is often met with surprise, because it looks pretty darn good.

That is, with the exception of the running back position. After letting running back Javonte Williams walk in free agency to the Dallas Cowboys, the Broncos lost their lead back who accumulated 605 offensive snaps last season (compared to Jaleel McLauhlin’s 304 and Audric Estime’s 138), who finished first on the team in rush attempts with 146, first in rushing yards with 542, and, surprisingly, second in receiving targets at 68 and fourth in yards at 360.

Williams was, by an exceedingly large margin, the team’s best pass-protecting back. He never fully regained his explosiveness and tackle-breaking ability following his catastrophic knee injury of 2022, but the Broncos' running back room is weaker and is now a blinking red light on an otherwise glowing depth chart with Williams gone.

This means the Broncos' first selection has to be a running back, right? If Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty falls, it's a no-brainer (which seems as likely as finding a $100 bill while walking the street), but if not him, should they simply take the next-highest consensus-ranked running back in North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton?

Given Hampton’s three-down ability, prototypical size, excellent athletic testing, and overall well-rounded and physical profile, it has to be another no-brainer for Denver if he’s there at 20, right? He’s undoubtedly a viable option for the Broncos round 1, but the team's hole at running back should be down the list as the primary motivation to drafting a back like Hampton at No. 20 overall.

As GM George Paton discussed at the annual NFL meetings in Florida, the Broncos are looking for a back (or backs) in the 2025 draft, but they could easily find players that can make an impact “in rounds two through six." Again, this does not mean the Broncos should avoid a running back at No. 20, and while the position is having somewhat of a renaissance after years of being publicly degraded, its value in an offense is still down the list compared to other positions on the field.

A Position Devalued...

Why has the running back position been devalued over the last decade? With analytics taking over much of football, data has shown that passing the football is far more efficient and leads to more yardage and scoring.

To some extent, the analytics have failed to illustrate the value of the passing game without the context of the run game. Nothing happens in a closed system in football and everything on a unit is intertwined.

Given that defenses across the league are playing far more sub-packages on early downs and a higher rate of soft coverages with two-deep safety shells with many of the body types along the front seven getting smaller and faster to combat the passing game, it's a natural pendulum swing for offenses to look to get bigger, more physical, and lean back into the run game. But the run game is not simply the running back.

A case in point is superstar running back Saquon Barkley. Drafted No. 2 overall, Barkley is (in this writer’s opinion) the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson. Despite his greatness coming out of Penn State, Barkley was never able to truly unleash his talents while playing for the New York Giants.

Due to ineptitude across the offense, but most specifically on the offensive line, Barkley was shackled and limited. A running back, for the most part, is only able to showcase his true ability and impact if the run-game infrastructure in place is set to maximize the runner’s talent.

Insert Barkley into the Philadelphia Eagles offense with a top-three offensive line (as well as two fantastic receivers to punish teams for playing more bodies against the run or triggering downhill), and we see an incredible season of 2024. A great running back is the cherry on top of an already well-built system.

Supply & Demand

The other aspect for running backs being devalued is simply supply and demand. Unlike truly great offensive tackles or game-changing and coverage-dictating wide receivers, there are ample running backs available each and every draft.

If a team doesn’t walk away with a back that winds up being great in one draft, the odds are very high that it will have a chance again in one year. Furthermore, backs that wind up being fantastic players each and every year are found littered up and down the entire draft.

Unlike positions such as quarterback, offensive tackle, No. 1 wide receiver, or truly All-Pro-level pass rushers, good running back play can be found later in the draft, whereas, if a team wants one to find a player in one of those other areas, a first-round pick isn't used on a shot for that kind of player in any year is an opportunity lost.

Further to that point is that, in many years, good running backs can not only be found in the draft, but they're also available in the draft. Given the nature of the running back position, it’s not rare for a running back to hit the market looking for a second contract.

As the Broncos’ brass mentioned in recent interviews, the 2025 free agency crop at running back was unusually thin. That isn’t normally the case, though.

2024 was the exact opposite with Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs all allowed to walk by their previous teams. Do we ever see mid-20-year-old pass rushers, offensive tackles, wide receivers, or cornerbacks of Henry’s, Barkley’s, or Jacobs’ stature hit the market in search of a second contract? It happens about as often as Halley’s Comet passing the Earth every ~75 years (that’s an exaggeration, but the point stands).

A majority of a running back's best value comes during the duration of his rookie contract. Running backs have a short shelf life overall. Most of the time a back’s best years will come over the time of their rookie contracts.

Because of that, the position does have a pretty good return on investment in Year 1, but that doesn’t have to be a first-rounder to get that immediate bump, either in comparison to nearly every other position. A team has to be in a very specific window with the run game infrastructure already in place to even consider a first-round running back.

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What it Means for the Broncos

With all that said, the Broncos are, undoubtedly, one of the few teams for which a first-round running back makes sense, given the current specific build and window they find themselves in entering the draft.

The Broncos sported one of the best offensive lines in football last season (admittedly better in pass protection than run blocking) and are a team that the rookie contract and short shelf life of a running back — ideally three to five seasons — lines up specifically not only with Bo Nix and his low impact against the cap's cost-controlled seasons, but also with what should be the peak of superstar cornerback Patrick Surtain II.

A cornerback’s time at the top doesn’t typically last long, and when they lose a smidge of their athletic ability, they tend to fall off... and fall off hard.

In the end, it should come down to Paton and Sean Payton’s specific evaluation of the running backs available when on the clock at 20 (as well as at 51). There should be some level of urgency to find a back to maximize this window the Broncos find themselves in, but at the same time, a level of calmness because the 2025 draft appears to be the best running back draft class dating back to 2008 when five ball-carriers went in Round 1 and such superstars as Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles fell to Day 2.

If the Broncos love Hampton because of the grade they have on him as an individual prospect and rank him higher than any other player on the board when they're on the clock, they should trust the evaluation and process of the decision-makers who have turned this franchise from league-wide laughing stock following the lemon purchase that was the trade and extension of Russell Wilson to an emerging dark horse Super Bowl team.

However, if the Broncos don’t truly love Hampton (or another back) when on the clock at 20, is the team’s hole at running back set to doom the team next season and beyond?

Absolutely not. There will be ample options to upgrade the room later (and multiple times at that).

Given the nature of the running back position in general and the specifics of the 2025 class, the Broncos can go any number of ways with their first pick (and even their second pick) that, in theory, could not involve a ball-carrier, and it could wind up being the best choice.

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Assuming Jeanty is gone, an early pick at 20, 51, or a trade up or down to land a pick in that range on Hampton, one of Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson or Quinshon Judkins, Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, or Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson could be on the table for the Broncos. But it should come down to how they individually grade the players.

Just as viable of an early-round strategy would be adding a pass-catching weapon at tight end or wide receiver, continuing to invest in the defensive front along the interior or edge, or simply drafting a player the Broncos adore and grade the highest compared to everyone else on the board.

The Takeaway

The Broncos have one remaining glaring hole on the depth chart, and it's arguably the easiest position to find in the draft at a position that tends to have the best rookie year output in what might be a historically deep running back class. The Broncos aren’t forced to do anything but collect talent, and that's about as enviable a position as any team can be as the NFL draft draws near.

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