Two Crucial Matchups Broncos Have to Win vs. Falcons

Win these matchups, win the game, Denver Broncos.

Sep 22, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons safety Justin Simmons (31) celebrates after an interception against the Kansas City Chiefs in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos must beat the Atlanta Falcons to keep their playoff dreams alive. A loss wouldn’t eliminate the Broncos, but it would make their uphill battle for the playoffs even more challenging.

There are two key matchups Denver needs to win to come out on top over the Falcons at home. Let's examine.

Front Seven vs. Cousins

The first matchup the Broncos have to win should help translate to slowing down the Falcons offense. The Broncos have to sack Kirk Cousins, and if they can get at least four sacks, it would be surprising if they also didn’t get the win.

Putting them behind schedule can lead to issues from the Falcons as they try to make up ground through the air. The Falcons have a negative EPA/Pass in long situations, seven or more yards. It opens the door to mistakes that the Broncos defense can capitalize on. 

What makes this difficult is Cousins' ability to get the ball out, as he averages 2.75 seconds to throw. The good news is that the Broncos are averaging 2.63 seconds to pressure.

However, pressuring Cousins isn’t enough. The Broncos need to get home and bring him down. 

The Falcons allow the fourth-fastest average time to pressure, and the eighth-highest quarterback pressure rate, but their 5.6 sack percentage is the seventh lowest in the NFL. The Falcons allow a lot of pressure, but Cousins does well to avoid sacks and get the ball out.

So, the Broncos front needs the secondary to force Cousins to hold onto the ball either by playing tight coverage or making plays of the ball. 

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Nix vs. Falcons' Safeties

On the other side of the ball, Bo Nix has to deal with a similar issue with the Falcons defense. He doesn’t have to deal with the pressure up front, but the pressure in the secondary, especially from their two safeties.

Nix will have to be clean when he is trying to attack because Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons have three interceptions between them this season, and any errant pass will be ripe for the picking by these safeties. 

Both safeties allow a negative EPA/Coverage, which is better for defensive players as they keep points off the board. Nix and the Broncos' passing game have had issues attacking vertically, and some of those issues have been from some questionably placed/timed throws from Nix, and these two safeties can punish him for that. 

Nix needs to improve his footwork, mainly if pressure builds up. This has been his biggest problem.

Much of what he has done in previous games won’t fly against the Falcons. This is especially true with Simmons, a former Broncos Pro Bowler, whom they released this past offseason. 

While Simmons still has a soft spot for the Broncos and the city of Denver, he will want to win. He's a competitor, and there will likely be some desire to prove the Broncos made a mistake by letting him go.

Everything Simmons knows about this offense will have already been shared with his coaches and teammates, but the question arises of how much things have changed since last year. Even so, that familiarity gives Simmons, Bates, and the Falcons an edge.

So, if the Broncos can sack Cousins while Nix accounts for Bates and Simmons, then the Broncos have a great chance to get to 6-5. If the Broncos struggle to do both, or even either, the game becomes much more challenging for them to walk out with a win. 

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