Broncos' First-Down Approach Will Determine the Outcome of Ravens Tilt

This spells it out quite plainly for Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton.

Aug 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) scrambles with the ball in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

When analysts glance at the NFL defensive rankings for Sunday's contest vs. the Baltimore Ravens, it's easy to see the Denver Broncos have to pass to win. After all, the Ravens have the toughest defense of all teams against the run and the worst against the pass.

However, the Broncos can't abandon the run or the type of balanced offensive approach that wins games. The Broncos need to have a more specific tactic to steal a victory in Baltimore, and the key is on first down.

Examining the analytics, one metric points to the path of success for Denver. Let's look at how this approach to first down can completely alter the outcome of a battle with the Ravens.

Pass, Pass, Pass

Teams that have favored the pass on first down to start out the game (first half and penalties removed) have usually claimed victory against the Ravens. The Kansas City Chiefs went pass heavy on first down during the first half and completed 67% of those throws.

The Las Vegas Raiders did the same with a 100% completion rate. The Cleveland Browns, who beat the Ravens last week, had a little better pass-to-run balance but still favored the pass on first down, completing 67%. The Ravens lost to all three teams.

This tactic doesn’t always work, as the Washington Commanders used it and lost. However, every team that was balanced on their run/pass ratio or was run heavy on first down fell to Baltimore.

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Don't Tempt Fate on Ground

The Ravens have a stout run defense on first and second down, giving up only 3.9 yards and 2.5 yards per carry, respectively. Steadfastly sticking to a heavy run attack on first down will leave the Broncos with third-and-long more often.

That's not a recipe for success against the best offense in the league. The Broncos must move the chains often to keep Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' high-powered offense off the field.

Since the Ravens are vulnerable in the passing game, it makes sense to use high-percentage passes on first down to keep the second and third downs short. The Broncos can use a more balanced approach on the next two downs to keep the chains moving.

The Ravens have given up 4.4 yards per carry on third down (penalties excluded), even when factoring in that the Raiders had negative yardage in that scenario. 

The Takeaway

Broncos head coach Sean Payton has called a balanced run to pass ratio on first down this season, with 94 rushes and 99 passes or 51.3% pass (excluding Bo Nix scrambles). On Sunday, that percentage should be in the range of 65% to 70% if the Broncos offense wants to keep the Ravens defense on its heels.

It goes without saying that those passes need to be completed more often than not. If Payton wants to add a bit of flair, he should employ some quarterback bootlegs on play-action to get Nix on the move and keep the Ravens guessing.

The Broncos offense must do its part this week to help its stellar defense if this team is to win this tough matchup.

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