Analytics Reveal 8 Safe Free-Agent OL Broncos Can Target

The analytics reveal which free-agent offensive linemen the Denver Broncos should consider signing.

The Denver Broncos have some roster holes to fill and will need to do it through free agency after trading away draft picks to land Sean Payton as the new head coach. The most glaring needs are along the offensive line. 

The Broncos were riddled with injuries and poor play across the entire O-line, and that must be fixed if the team stands any chance of winning in 2023. To understand who to target in free agency, we can look at the past to predict the future. 

By analyzing each player’s career by position, we can start to see when a free agent will peak and when they will decline. I have compiled all players who were in the NFL from 1998 to 2019 and whose final season was no sooner than 2008. 

From there, I segmented them by position and analyzed only players who started at least 60% of the possible games in their first three seasons. Finally, each position was analyzed by player’s age in each of their seasons to find what percentage of games they started and what percentage of awards (All-Pro/Pro Bowl) they received (ages with less than 10 players at the position were excluded).

In the below image, you will see how the offensive line fared.

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What it Means

At 26 years old, offensive linemen peak for starting potential, but their prime window to be recognized for awards begins at 28. This would indicate the best time to give significant money to a free-agent offensive lineman is at approximately 27 years old. 

Rewarding such a player with a five-year contract is not out of the question, as they tend to start around 70% or more of their possible games until they reach 31 years old.

The other interesting point is that some offensive linemen can strike gold again at the 34-year-old mark. There is a significant uptick in their ability to garner attention for awards, indicating stellar play for a single season. In fact, the percentage is as high as when they're in their prime. 

That means that a team could take a chance on an older player with a one-year deal in hopes he has that resurgence. It's a risk, but the Broncos will likely need a stopgap player. They should take that chance, provided the other data points line up.

So, who are the potential free agents for Denver that fit the bill based on the analysis? I've broken them down into two groups: young players worthy of a long-term deal and older free agents that the Broncos could feel comfortable signing to a one-year contract. 

Young/Long-Term Free Agents

• Jawaan Taylor
• Ben Powers
• Nate Davis
• Evan Brown
• Yosuah Nijman

Older/One-Year Free Agents

• Riley Reiff
• Rodger Saffold
• Rodney Hudson

Bottom Line

The Broncos will need to find at least three players on the offensive line who can step in and start on day one. Denver needs a right tackle, a guard, and a center. 

If the Broncos could somehow find a way to land a young player like Taylor and fill in the other two spots with veterans like Saffold and Hudson until they could make ready a young draft pick, the offensive line would have a significant boost. If the Broncos are lucky enough to land two young players like Taylor and Powers, only the need for a single one-year vet at center would be necessary. 

That would be a massive upgrade, and the Broncos could set themselves up for a bright future in the trenches.

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