How Broncos' Improved Run Defense Led to Pass Rush Opportunities
The Denver Broncos lost a heartbreaker on Sunday, falling 22-17 to the Houston Texans. While it may feel difficult to find positives after coming so close to a victory, especially considering the stakes at play for the Broncos and their playoff probability plummeting after a loss, it's important to note that the team is still moving in the right direction and evolving each week.
There were areas that the Broncos obviously needed improvement, such as their poor performance in pass protection, throwing to open receivers on time, and third-down execution. However, Denver did turn in one of its best performances of the season in one key area: run defense.
The Texans weren't exactly a juggernaut rushing offense entering Week 13, but that hadn’t stopped nearly any other team this season from running the ball at a highly efficient clip against the Broncos in 2023. Since Week 6 (after Denver’s defense finally figured things out), the Broncos' run defense metrics look solid on the surface. With a -0.175 Defensive EPA/Rush, ranking No. 6 in the NFL, the Broncos' run defense didn’t show cracks unless really diving into the data.
The Broncos were on an unsustainable takeaway streak, as fans understand all too well after this past weekend. This is true for Denver’s run defense metrics, too.
When excluding turnovers, the Broncos' defensive run EPA/Play drops all the way to 0.005, ranking No. 28 in the NFL. According to The Athletic's Robert Mays, the Broncos have gained the most EPA off of fumbles this season prior to last week’s matchups.
The distance between Denver in first place and the New York Giants in second was the same as between the Giants and the 28th-ranked team. The fumbles in the run game were artificially boosting a poor run unit.
The Defensive Rush Success Rate also indicates that the Broncos’ run defense was receiving an incredible boost from fumbles. Creating fumbles is certainly a skill on defense, but recovering them is a coin flip (as, again, the Broncos found out this past weekend).
When removing turnovers from the equation, Denver had the second-worst success rate in the NFL at 44.4% since Week 6. That means that while the takeaways were incredible, the rate was unsustainable and covered up a poor rushing defense.
The Pro Football Focus grades from the game paint a similar picture as the metrics. In order for the Broncos' run defense to be poor, it would mean the players on the field are struggling.
The grades would confirm this as the case. The Broncos’ starting interior D-line trio of Zach Allen, Mike Purcell, and Jonathan Harris rank 28th, 100th, and 95th, respectively, out of 166 players at the position with at least 50 snaps this season. The Broncos have not been great at holding up against the run.
That was until this past week vs. the Texans. Holding Houston to 89 rush yards on 30 carries and a poor 3.0 yards per carry, Denver’s defensive rush EPA/Play ranked No. 9 in the NFL this week at -0.121, with a success rate at 34.5%, ranking No. 10 in the league. Not fantastic, but a dramatic improvement from what the unit showed earlier this season.
The run defense from the Broncos' interior D-line trio was also incredibly improved. Per PFF, Allen earned an 81.7 run defense grade, with four run stops and four tackles. Purcell was right behind with an 80.8 run defense grade. Harris also played well with an 81.8 run defense grade with 3 run stops.
Among the Broncos' interior trio were linebackers Alex Singleton, Jonathon Cooper, and Baron Browning also standing out in run defense. Forcing the Texans to an average yards of seven-plus yards to go on third down, the Broncos' run defense did its job in order for coordinator Vance Joseph to unlock his pass rushers and call exotic pressure looks.
There have been glimpses of Joseph calling fantastic pressure calls this season, such as this beautiful simulated pressure versus the Browns in Week 12.
Thanks to “eating their vegetables” on first and second down against the run, the Broncos were able to dial up creeper looks and simulated pressures against Houston that confounded the offensive line and stalled future rookie of the year C.J. Stroud.
For example, take this look on a 3rd-&-13 that wound up with Ja'Quan McMillian notching the first sack of his career. With seven players lined up on the line of scrimmage, Joseph sends the defensive backs near the line of scrimmage, drops both insider linebackers lined up over the A gap as 'mug linebackers' and drops both Nik Bonitto and Browning in space.
It's a four-man rush with all four defenders lined up closest to the ball dropping into coverage. It does not get much better than this.
The Broncos will need to continue to work on their run defense on first and second downs going forward because their four-man pass rush has been a mixed bag. With Denver earning a defensive EPA/Play of 0.09 (ranking No. 9), a success rate of 51.16% (ranking 27th), and an explosive play rate of 18.6% (ranking 27th) since Week 6, the defense just hasn't been able to get pressure enough with just four rushers.
Blitzing is an obvious solution if and only if the Broncos' run defense can do a good enough job on first and second down to get to the exotic pass rush looks. Fortunately for Denver, only one of its next five opponents really succeeds as a running offense.
The Detroit Lions rank third in EPA/Play and ninth in Success Rate. The Los Angeles Chargers rank 27th in rush EPA/Play at -0.179 and 32nd in rush success rate at 31.4%. The New England Patriots are not as poor, ranking 17th in EPA/Play at -0.099 and eighth in success rate at 42%, while the Las Vegas Raiders may have Josh Jacobs but still have been poor running the football, ranking 30th in run EPA/Play at -0.217 and 24th in success rate at 36.0%.
The Takeaway
The Broncos' defense is much improved from the start of the 2023 season, but it still struggles in some key areas. If the Broncos' run defense can continue its trend from the Houston game with the defensive front and getting into more third-and-longs, it can continue to improve even if the takeaway rate continues to regress to the mean.
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