Broncos Must Win These Key Matchups to Beat Jaguars

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. Which team has the advantage?

The Denver Broncos do not have a good offense. Despite having plenty of talent, the Broncos have many issues, from inept coaching, terrible quarterback play, a lack of a running game to a problematic offensive line. 

Denver's defense is playing great, but it tends to break or have cracks form that has allowed the opposing teams to do enough to walk out with a win in a low-scoring game. 

The Broncos are now in London, England, to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Broncos are 3-5 in international games, including 0-2 in England. 

This team has done a poor job when traveling east of Denver of late, and there isn't much hope of the Broncos putting things together on a shorter week full of travel. 

Once again, this will be a defensive bout, so let's get into the matchups.

Broncos QBs vs. Jaguars Defense

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The expectation is for Russell Wilson to start, but the game against the Jets showed the offense is ineffective no matter who is at quarterback. 

With Wilson returning from injuries to his hamstring and shoulder, who knows what Denver will get out of him? It is concerning hearing the coaching staff say that it's "status quo" for this game, despite the constant issues since the start of the season. 

The Jaguars' defense is 18th in total DVOA and pass defense DVOA. The Jags like to run a lot of Cover-3 and Cover-1, the coverages Wilson has had the most success against this season. 

While the Broncos' defense is the most penalized group in the NFL, the Jaguars are the second-most penalized defense, with three penalties separating the two. Seven of the defensive penalties came in the Jaguars' last game. 

This is a battle between two bad groups, and the Broncos have faced other bad defenses with little success. Three of Denver's games came against defenses with a worse DVOA than the Jaguars, and one was just ahead of Jacksonville. 

Denver averaged 17.75 points in those four games, including its season-high of 23. The Broncos' other three games were 16 points each. 

The advantage goes to Denver here because the bad defenses were when Wilson and the Broncos' offense scored more than 11 points. This is a wash between the two teams if Wilson doesn't play. 

Advantage: Slightly Broncos. 

Broncos Pass Protection vs. Jaguars Pass Rushers

© Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

While Josh Allen has done a good job getting pressures, with 28 total on the season, the Jaguars are struggling outside of him. Travon Walker, the first overall pick in this year's draft, has been a bit of a disappointment with 14 total pressures while playing 10 more snaps as a pass rusher than Allen. Those are the two team leaders. 

These Jags will face off against Calvin Anderson and Billy Turner. Turner has been battling a knee injury but finally got onto the field. He has allowed four pressures in his 74 snaps in two games. 

Anderson, who has played 36 total snaps, has also allowed four pressures. The Broncos have made it clear they would prefer not to have Anderson on the field, but with Cam Fleming injured, they don't have a choice. 

The biggest concern is the interior offensive line of the Broncos, but the Jaguars don't have serious threats on their interior D-line. Davon Hamilton is the biggest threat, with 12 pressures, but he isn't consistent enough to be a constant threat. 

Denver should be able to hold its own in pass protection, but things can break down when the quarterback is holding the ball for the seventh-longest time to throw in the NFL. Advantage slightly Denver for that reason. 

Advantage: Slightly Denver. 

Broncos Rushing Game vs. Jaguars Run Defense

© Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Broncos can't get a reliable run game going, which will be needed no matter who is at quarterback. While the Jaguars rank 15th in rush defense DVOA, the Broncos can't get their run game going against worse run defenses. 

Walker, Hamilton, Folorunso Fatuksi, and Devin Lloyd have been key contributors to the Jaguars' success against the run. They eat up blocks, use strength to shed blocks, and make plays. Even Tyson Campbell at cornerback, and Allen has stepped up against the run on the edge. 

The issue is the Jaguars are as consistent in defending the run as the Broncos are in creating a successful run play. Jacksonville's biggest problem comes when defending runs off the left tackle, where the Broncos have the most concerns with Anderson and Dalton Risner. Neither team has an advantage here. 

Advantage: Wash. 

Broncos Passing Game vs. Jaguars Coverage

© Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio / USA TODAY NETWORK

There are exploitable weaknesses in the Jaguars' coverage unit. Tyson Campbell has had a good season but hasn't been consistent with his coverage. Andre Cisco has shown his playmaking skills at safety with two interceptions, so the Broncos must be cautious of him. 

New additions Lloyd, Darious Williams, and Foyesade Oluokun have struggled in coverage, allowing over 60% of targets to be caught and passer ratings above 90. Shaquille Griffith has also had a rough season allowing nearly 70% of targets and a 125.0 NFL passer rating when targeted. 

This would be a good game to work your matchups on offense in the passing game, especially with how TE Greg Dulcich has looked in his first two games. KJ Hamler should also have a good role in the passing game if Denver can get Wilson to look his way. 

If the Broncos are serious about trading Jerry Jeudy and/or Hamler, this is an excellent game to pump up their value against favorable matchups. 

Campbell and Cisco are who the Broncos need to be cautious of, but they have the weapons to attack the other weaknesses. Ultimately, it will come down to the quarterback play, which with Wilson, was in Denver's favor, so this also goes in favor of the Broncos. 

Advantage: Broncos.

What happens next on the Broncos? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Please take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Trevor Lawrence vs. Broncos Defense

© Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Broncos' defense does have their cracks show up, which has allowed quarterbacks to move the ball against them. These cracks have come in coverage, in the run game, and in penalties. 

For the majority of the game, the Broncos should be able to limit Lawrence and cut down on the damage he can do. In addition, Denver does an excellent job of disguising its coverages and pressure pre-snap, which puts more pressure on the young quarterback. 

One good thing about Lawrence is how quickly he gets the ball out, as he has the ninth-fastest average time to throw. However, he also has the fifth-longest time to scramble. Those work for and against the Broncos' pass rush. 

Denver has mostly used Cover-3 concepts, which Lawrence has had the most success against. However, Cover-6 is where Lawrence has struggled the most, and the Broncos use it the second most, so it wouldn't be surprising to see them turn to that more often in this matchup. 

The advantage here goes to the Broncos with how they have succeeded, even with the cracks that form. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Pass Rushers vs. Jaguars Pass Protection

© Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

Denver's pass rush has been inconsistent in its last two matchups, but its has plenty of weapons to get after the quarterback, even without Randy Gregory and Baron Browning. 

Bradley Chubb has been killing it, which is why other teams on the trade market are coveting him. Dre'Mont Jones has been doing an excellent job getting pressure from the inside, and D.J. Jones has been doing enough. 

Denver will need Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto to step up in the absence of other pass rushers, but they have flashed when out there on the field. The Jaguars' rookie center has had significant pass protection issues that D.J. Jones and even Mike Purcell should be able to exploit. 

Cam Robinson and Bradley Chubb are also a matchup to watch. Dre'Mont Jones will see time as a stand-up edge and take on Brandon Scherff, who has been struggling in pass protection with nine pressures on the season. 

Even with the injuries piling up, the edge goes to the Broncos, though if they were healthy, the advantage would be even more significant. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Defense vs. Jaguars Running Game

© Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Broncos' rushing defense is 18th in DVOA, just as the Jaguars' rushing offense is. With the Jaguars trading away James Robinson, it is the Travis Etienne show, who has fumbled three times on 68 rushing attempts, and the Broncos' defense loves to rip at the ball. 

This battle could go either way, as it depends on how consistent the Broncos' defense is against the run. Their rushing defense is where they have had the most inconsistency, and Etienne is the type of running back that can make them pay for it. 

Denver will have to play disciplined and watch out for its habitual over-pursuit. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Coverage vs. Jaguars Passing Game

© Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Marvin Jones can attack the Broncos' corners differently. They have a good combination of skills, but rookie corner Damarri Mathis is the biggest concern for the Broncos. Not only because he is a rookie, but he has the most unfavorable matchup against any of those three receivers. 

Tight end Evan Engram isn't the best matchup for the Broncos' linebackers, and neither is Etienne, so it is safe to assume the Jaguars would work to include those two in their passing game and look for opportunities to open up with their receivers. 

Denver should be able to control the game through the air, but the Jaguars will have some wins. The advantage goes to the Broncos because they are a stifling unit, even when the cracks start to form. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Nathaniel Hackett vs. Doug Pederson

© Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

While the incompetence of the Broncos' offense isn't only on Hackett, he was hyped up as a bright younger offensive mind, and his unit has been completely inept. It has been such an issue that more and more rumors and reports emerge about Hackett being one-and-done as a head coach. 

Meanwhile, Pederson is doing a good job coaching the Jaguars and is getting a lot from his players. Many Broncos fans wanted Pederson this past hiring cycle, and he is showing his coaching ability with a team that doesn't have as much talent as the Broncos. 

As mentioned before, the advantage will go to the other coach until Hackett shows otherwise, but even without that, the advantage would be with Pederson and the Jaguars. Pederson is the better coach. 

Advantage: Jaguars. 

Bottom Line

It would be a surprise if this game scores more than 35 combined points. The Broncos' offense is the strongest unit between the two teams, while the Jaguars' offense is their stronger unit, so it's a strength vs. a strength there. And the Broncos' offense vs. the Jaguars' defense is a weakness vs. a weakness. 

This game could end up as another boring 12-9 game, where scoring a touchdown could be a difference-maker. While this game won't directly determine whether the Broncos are buyers or sellers with the trade deadline a few days away, it will play a role in their willingness to part with players and the value they're willing to accept for those players. 

In essence, this game will determine the rest of the season for the Broncos as well as jobs for players and coaching staff. The playoffs are a long shot, but a win might put the Broncos back in that mindset, while a loss would be a punt on the rest of the season, and put GM George Paton in the 2023 mindset, potentially looking to start over with Wilson and a new coaching staff. 

---

Follow Erick on Twitter @ErickTrickel.

Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.

Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!

Get your Broncos tickets from SI Tickets HERE!