Broncos vs. Jets: 5 Bold Predictions
After the 70-20 thrashing the Miami Dolphins gave the Denver Broncos in Week 3, it was dicey coming up with bold predictions for Week 4's tilt with the Chicago Bears. However, the Broncos managed to realize one of my bold predictions for the first time in Chicago, got close to two more, and walked out with a win.
That's concrete evidence that achieving at least one positive bold prediction will lead to a victory. Alright, that is a bit of a hyperbole, but with how the Broncos have been playing, they need an excellent performance or two to help make up the difference, especially with the state of this defense.
Denver's defense has been historically bad, and while the offense is better, it's not without its issues as well. So, let's get into the bold predictions for Denver's Week 5 tilt with the New York Jets, who have the most formidable defense the Broncos will have faced up to this point.
Russell Wilson Hits the First Wall of 2023
There is no question Wilson has been playing much better football than he did a year ago. However, the context of how bad the passing defenses Denver has faced can't be ignored.
The Las Vegas Raiders looked improved in their latest game, holding Justin Herbert under 200 yards passing, but they were chewed up through the air outside of that. The Washington Commanders, like the Dolphins, have struggled against the pass, while the Bears featured the worst passing defense the Broncos have faced.
Even at 1-3, the Jets passing defense has been a solid unit. While New York features the best passing defense the Broncos have faced, they still aren't a great unit, and Denver should find some wins. What the Jets do exceptionally well is bait bad decisions and take the ball away.
As a unit, the Jets have allowed only one quarterback to break 250 yards passing, with Dak Prescott throwing for 255 yards. The Jets are coming off a game where they slowed down the vaunted Kansas City Chiefs offense and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who had just 203 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
The Jets allow many throws to be completed underneath, leading to 6.3 yards per attempt and 10.3 yards per completion, both of which rank in the top 12 for the lowest average.
The Broncos' passing game has looked good, but it's not without issues. Everyone involved in the passing game has been problematic at times, and the Jets have the talent on their defense to take advantage of all of those issues.
As a result, Wilson has his worst game of the season. He has done well protecting the ball, for the most part, but I'm predicting the Jets end up with three takeaways on Wilson, either as interceptions, strip sacks, or a combination of the two. Wilson also completes under 60% of his passes for the second time this season.
Each Team Notches 6 Sacks
While the Broncos have struggled to generate consistent pressure, Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper are coming into their own. They also face the only quarterback who holds the ball longer than Russ, Zach Wilson.
The Jets have a solid offensive line, and Wilson does well to use his legs. However, the Broncos can get home and nearly double their sack total in a single game.
It would be an outstanding achievement to handle the Jets offense with their weapons and how historically bad the Broncos defense has been. Denver has eight sacks in four games, four of which came against the Bears.
As for the Jets, they also get sacks. Part of it is how long Russ holds the ball. The Broncos have also had issues on the right side of their offensive line with Mike McGlinchey and Quinn Meinerz. Ben Powers has also had problems at left guard.
The Jets have three players with 18 pressures on the season entering Week 5. New York has multiple players as part of its rotation that show the ability to get after the quarterback quickly and consistently from all over the defensive formation.
This game will feature a lot of sacks. A half-dozen on each side.
Zach Wilson Thrives vs. Broncos
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
If it isn't clear, the confidence in the Broncos defense is extremely low, which is evident with how historically bad they've been. While one of my predictions has the Broncos picking up six sacks, they'll still struggle in coverage. Outside of one sack, the strip-sack returned for a touchdown against the Bears, Denver's sacks have meant little relative to game situations, and that continues against the Jets.
Even after the Broncos get a splash play, they allow Wilson and the Jets to move the ball. In the end, Wilson does throw one interception but also throws for three touchdowns.
Wilson's weapons have favorable matchups across the board for the Broncos. Add in the Broncos' issues against the run and Breece Hall being 100% full go instead of being on a snap count, and there's plenty of cause for concern.
The Jets can get into a position where they don't have to rely on Wilson to move the ball but use him to add that extra element. It is also concerning that he looked as good as he did against the Chiefs defense, a top-six passing defense in the NFL this season.
Wilson had a get-right game there and now gets to follow it up vs. the worst passing defense. That is a bad mixture. Expect Wilson to have a heyday.
Hall Exploits Broncos' Lousy Run Defense
The Broncos are completely broken defensively, with much of it falling on defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. The Broncos have issues against the pass, which was highlighted in my previous prediction. This time, Denver's run defense gets in on the action.
This unit allows 176 rushing yards per game, 19 yards more than the second-worst run defense of the Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos allow 8.8 rushing first downs per game, the fourth worst, and 5.6 yards per attempt, which is second worst, while facing the sixth-lowest run play percentage.
Miami's 350-yard rushing game doesn't help the averages, but the Broncos followed that up by relinquishing 171 ground yards to the Bears. Even if you took out the Dolphins game, the Broncos would still be in the bottom half of the NFL.
Enter Hall, who was having an outstanding game against the Broncos before he got hurt last season. That injury is why he's been on a snap count to start the season.
Hall had an excellent game in the Jets' season opener, with 10 carries for 127 yards and a touchdown, then was limited to 16 carries over the next two games for 27 yards. While he didn't have a large workload against the Chiefs, he ran the ball six times for 56 yards, and Kansas City's run defense is a good unit.
With how bad the Broncos defense is, Hall rushes for over 150 yards, including a 20-plus-yard touchdown run.
Mims Completes the Trifecta & Approaches the Quadfecta
Receiving touchdown? Check. Kick return touchdown? Check.
When it comes to Marvin Mims Jr. posting a punt return touchdown and a rushing score, we're still waiting, but not for long. It's a bold one, but I predict Mims will pick up one of the two he is missing, getting closer to achieving a touchdown three different ways in five games.
Against the Jets, a rushing touchdown for Mims seems more likely than a punt return touchdown. The Jets struggle with their run defense, especially in protecting the boundary. Giving Mims the ball on an end around would be a great way to take advantage of that weakness.
As for achieving the punt return, the Broncos defense would have to step up and start forcing more punts than it does to increase those opportunities. However, Mims did get close to breaking one of the very few punts the Broncos have forced.
So, while a rushing touchdown is easier to foresee, I won't rule out his trifecta becoming a 'quadfecta' with a punt return touchdown, to boot.
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