Broncos Must Win These Key Matchups To Beat Jets

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets. Which team has the advantage?

After what was another heartbreaking loss on a national stage, the Denver Broncos return home to take on the surprising 4-2 New York Jets. The Broncos sit at 2-4, and are 2-1 at home so far this season. 

The Broncos lead the all-time series against the Jets with a 21-16-1 record, including a 7-3 record in their last 10 matchups, and 4-1 in their last five. These two teams are comparable in multiple ways, which should make for an interesting battle. 

The Broncos and Jets both have a strong defense with an inconsistent offense. Don't be surprised if this is yet another low-scoring game involving the Broncos.

The Broncos have eclipsed 20 points only once this season, and their games have had a combined score of more than 40 points only once. Denver has as many games under 30 combined points as it does over

Meanwhile, the Jets have put more points on the board, having four games with more points totaled than the Broncos' season-high of 23. New York's defense has kept opponents under 30 points in five games, with one team hitting that 30-point mark. 

Once again, this will be a defensive bout, so let's get into the matchups.

Broncos QBs vs. Jets Defense

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Who is it going to be? Will Russell Wilson start, or will it be Brett Rypien? Even though Wilson is listed as questionable, there's a 99% chance he'll start. After all, he is the franchise quarterback the Broncos traded for and gave a big deal without ever taking a snap for the team. 

Wilson has been bad this year and is having the worst start to a season ever in his career. Denver is dealing with many bad Wilson habits that the Seattle Seahawks navigated, but he has aged and lost some of his magic. 

The issue of missing open receivers, including on opportunities to turn a third down into a first or a touchdown, was an issue in Seattle, along with the high percentage of pressure he brings on himself and how long he likes to hold onto the ball. 

Denver's passing game with Wilson has relied on luck plays, like a ref knocking over a defensive back in the perfect position or broken coverages. Unfortunately, that isn't sustainable, and Denver has to be better. 

The Jets like to run a lot of cover 4 and cover 3. Their usage of cover 4 is higher than the league average, while cover 3 is slightly below. Wilson is averaging less than 0.5 EPA against each of those two coverages this season. The only coverage he is doing worse against is cover 2. 

While cover 1 is New York's third most-used coverage, it would be reasonable to expect the Jets to use less of it against the Broncos. That's where Wilson has had the most success throwing the ball, so avoiding cover 1 would be the smart move by the Jets. 

As for Rypien, if he starts, the Broncos' offense would reflect what Rypien can do instead of trying to force things that don't work because it's what Wilson wants. So, if Rypien starts, it will be a quicker, shorter passing game with timing and precision and taking a couple of shots down the field that relies more on timing than being able to throw the ball far with velocity. 

Overall, it wouldn't be surprising if the Broncos' offense ran smoother if Rypien starts than Wilson. However, if Wilson starts, he needs to accept that he isn't a pocket quarterback, and he never has been. The offense was significantly worse when he was allowed to do that in Seattle. 

Accept what you can do, and do it to the best of your abilities. It would help the Broncos' offense by moving pockets and using what is left in those legs. 

Advantage: Jets. 

Broncos Pass Protection vs. Jets Pass Rushers

© Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Broncos' offensive line will be Cameron Fleming, Dalton Risner, Lloyd Cushenberry, Quinn Meinerz, and Billy Turner. Unfortunately, it is a unit primed to give up pressure in this game. 

Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers are two great pass rushers attacking the inside. Risner and Cushenberry are the weakest links on the unit, and look for Williams to attack those two consistently. This is a game that Risner and Cushenberry either step up or it's time to bench them. 

The Broncos' coaches can't continue to let these two play with how frequently plays are getting blown up because of their failures. So step up or take a seat. 

As for the edge rushers, the Jets have a good rotation but don't have excellent talents. Fleming and Turner should be able to hold their own and limit the amount of pressure coming from around the edges. 

The Broncos have the edge advantage, but the Jets' advantage on the inside is far more significant. 

Advantage: Jets.

Broncos Rushing Game vs. Jets Run Defense

© Appleton Post-Crescent-USA TODAY NETWORK

The Broncos committed to Melvin Gordon to be the starter, but whether he finishes with the most carries at game's end is the question. He did start against the Chargers but received far from the bulk of the carries. 

With their rush defense, the Jets do well against inside zone concepts, which the Broncos use the most. Having the talent on the interior defensive line they have is a big reason why, and the Jets open up lanes for the linebackers. 

With those in the middle attacking Risner and Cushenberry, Denver should run heavily to the right, where Meinerz and Turner should be able to open running lanes. Fleming at left tackle has also done a solid job as a run blocker this season.

Denver has to get a run game going consistently to help take pressure off of whichever quarterback ends up starting. It will also help ease up the pressure from the pass rushers. 

Advantage: Jets.

Broncos Passing Game vs. Jets Coverage

© Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

With the quarterback segment focusing on the coverages, we can look at the weapon matchups here. 

Ahmad Gardner is having a great rookie season, but he has had two defensive pass interference flags thrown his way. Look for him to match up consistently with Courtland Sutton, who has drawn the most defensive pass-interference calls this season. 

Garnder has allowed 13-of-30 targets to be caught, breaking up seven passes and intercepting one. It will be a great matchup to watch, and if Garnder wins more than Sutton, the Broncos' passing game will struggle as Sutton is the lone receiver to step up this season. 

D.J. Reed is also having a good season opposite of Gardner and will likely match up with Jerry Jeudy this game. Then Michael Carter III in the slot against K.J. Hamler will be the final of the big three matchups. The biggest advantage here is Hamler on Carter, but there have been issues with Wilson seeing Hamler all season long. 

The best way to exploit the Jets' defensive weakness is to attack with tight ends and running backs. That's where teams have had the most success, with the tight ends catching 35-of-49 targets for 371 yards and running backs going 27-of-39 for 176 yards and a touchdown. 

Quincy Williams and Kwon Alexander are the two most complicit for New York's issues covering tight ends and backs. Still, as a unit, the Jets' linebackers are directly responsible for relinquishing 41 catches on 54 targets for 369 yards to tight ends and backs. 

With Greg Dulcich looking far more ready as a receiver in his first game, and Denver has a group of tight ends it can rotate, this would be the area for them to attack in the passing game to move the ball. Because of that, the Broncos have a slight edge.

Advantage: Slightly Broncos.

What happens next on the Broncos? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Please take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Zach Wilson vs. Broncos Defense

© Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

So far this season, the Broncos have used a lot of cover 3 coverages, which Wilson has done alright against. Wilson is most successful against cover 6, which Denver has used the second-most so far this season. 

Wilson has a knack for holding the ball too long and has the highest percentage of turnover-worthy plays. The Jets are winning games despite his play. With the combination of pressure and coverage, the Broncos should be able to rattle him and force some turnovers. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Pass Rushers vs. Jets Pass Protection

© Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Laken Tomlinson has been terrible this season, but the last two weeks have seen him start to turn it around. With how good Dre'Mont Jones has been this season, Jones should be able to get his fair share of wins against Tomlinson. 

Alijah Vera-Tucker has been moved from guard to tackle with all the injuries the Jets have dealt with. He has done quite well, but Green Bay beat him multiple times. Bradley Chubb and Baron Browning should be able to get their wins against Vera-Tucker and Duane Brown. 

Denver has enough pass rushers to have a good rotation, and DC Ejiro Evero has some amazing pressure packages that target weak spots on the offensive line. Look for even more of that with Denver's advantage in this matchup. 

Advantage: B 

Broncos Defense vs. Jets Running Game

© Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Jets are a heavy outside zone team mixed with some inside zone rushing concepts. Denver has had success defending those two concepts, as their EPA against them is second and third-best. Only draw plays are higher.

However, Denver has struggled with backs that can run with some power, while the offense can spread them out and force them to stay in nickel personnel. While the Jets' passing game is problematic, they have some talent at receiver they can use to spread the Broncos thin to help get their run game going.

Advantage: Broncos. 

Broncos Coverage vs. Jets Passing Game

© Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

Garrett Wilson has had a strong start to his season, and it will be interesting to see if Patrick Surtain II or Damarri Mathis lines up against him the most. It would be better for Denver to see Surtain there, as Mathis struggled in his first start. However, Corey Davis isn't the best matchup for Mathis, either. 

The Jets have benched Elijah Moore, who reportedly wants out, which will help the coverage. Moore is a good weapon and a threat when on the field, even if he isn't getting utilized. 

Tyler Conklin is a threat, but the Broncos have done an excellent job shutting down or limiting the tight ends they have faced this season. In addition, the Broncos actually have done an excellent job in coverage all season long, even with how much Mathis struggled with penalties against the Chargers. 

With how Wilson has played, the advantage is very much in favor of the Broncos. Mathis shouldn't see the same struggles he did against the Chargers, and outside of the penalties, his play in coverage was good, but you can't forget the penalties. 

Advantage: Broncos. 

Nathaniel Hackett vs. Robert Saleh

© Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Saleh is improving as a coach, and his defense is playing excellent football. Unfortunately, his offense relies on their run game because the quarterback is untrustworthy.

Not only does the advantage go to the Jets because Nathaniel Hackett has not shown any reason to be trusted, but Saleh is the better coach in this matchup. His team plays hard consistently and plays well above their overall talent level.

Advantage: Jets. 

Bottom Line

If one of the offenses steps up, this game could score higher than it appears at first glance. Both teams have unreliable play from their respective quarterbacks, at best, and a strong defense. 

However, it's fair to expect a low-scoring game with some slop-fest-filled football on the offense. 

---

Follow Erick on Twitter @ErickTrickel.

Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.

Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!

Get your Broncos tickets from SI Tickets HERE!