Two Crucial Matchups Broncos Must Win vs. Jets

If the Denver Broncos win these matchups, it'll go a long way toward a win.

Oct 23, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner (1) breaks up a pass intended for Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) in the second quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos will have to work hard to get their second win of the season on the road against the New York Jets. The Jets have a tough defense and an offense that is doing well so far this season.

To help the Broncos win, there are two crucial matchups to attack.  Let's examine.

Cook the Sauce

The Broncos can’t fear Jets cornerback Sauce Garnder. Now, Gardner has played tight coverage, allowing 2.1 yards of separation on average as a boundary corner, but finishing has been an issue.

In that boundary alignment, Gardner is allowing the sixth-highest coverage EPA and 72.7% of his targets to be caught for 112 yards and a touchdown. He's struggling at the catch point, but teams have been afraid to target him, with 11 targets in three games. 

To highlight those issues, Gardner's catch rate allowed is 17.4% higher than expected. This illustrates his coverage and which targets are expected to be caught, and he is allowing a 17.4% catch rate over what is expected.

This means Gardner's coverage is tight, and he's there during the catch window but he isn't forcing expected incompletions. That's unlike D.J. Reed and Brandin Echols, who are forcing more incompletions than expected.

Among those three Jets corners, Gardner is being targeted the most often, with a 15.3 target rate, compared to 10% for Reed and 9.4% for Echols. 

The Broncos receivers are struggling to get separation, with Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds’ average separation well below the league average. That shouldn’t preclude Bo Nix from targeting Garnder, but the Broncos' offensive line and Nix must do well with their pre-snap reads to determine the pressure.

But here's the thing; you can’t throw an errant pass in Gardner's direction; otherwise, he will make you pay for it. 

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Ground Jets' WRs

Broncos cornerback trio Patrick Surtain II, Riley Moss, and Ja’Quan McMillian will face a lot of pressure on defense. They must step up against Jets wideouts Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mike Williams.

Wilson has been struggling this season, with 15 catches on 26 targets, 150 yards, and a single touchdown, but a negative receiving EPA of 8.3. The question for the Broncos is which corner they'll have to match up against which receiver most of the time. 

Surtain has had a brutal onslaught of receivers and has handled them all, but they've been types that better fit his play style. Matching him up against Wilson could lead to issues, though Surtain shut down Wilson last year with two catches for 22 yards on six targets, with an interception and pass broken up. Surtain can handle it, but can Moss and McMillian handle Lazard and Williams?

Both receivers have a positive receiving EPA, with Lazard at 11.8 and Williams at 3.7. Their size and play style can work against Moss and McMillian. The Jets have Lazard and Wilson in the slot almost at the same rate, 38.9% for Lazard and 38.7% for Wilson.

This puts pressure on McMillian, as Lazard has a significant size advantage, and Wilson would be one of the toughest matchups the young nickel corner has faced in his career. Last year, McMillian was tasked with facing Randall Cobb for most of the game, so this year will be vastly different with the matchup. 

The key matchup here is McMillian against Lazard or Wilson in the slot. However, with how the Jets move Wilson and Lazard around, it comes down to what Vance Joseph has planned for the Broncos' cornerback trio.

It will go a long way toward a Broncos win if they can keep Wilson and Lazard limited, no matter where they line up or who they are going against. 

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