3 Keys to a Broncos Upset Victory Over Bucs

If the Denver Broncos beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they'll have to unlock these keys.

aSep 8, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) runs with the ball against the Washington Commanders in the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are one of nine teams in the NFL that are still desperately searching for their first win of the 2024 season. It’s a long season, with 16 weeks to go, but the pressure is mounting on Sean Payton’s second straight 0-2 start as Broncos head coach.

After losing the home opener to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Broncos will hit the road for the next two weeks to square off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday and the New York Jets in Week 4.

The last time the Broncos played the Bucs was in 2020, when Tom Brady outmatched Jeff Driskell in Denver in a 28-10 loss. Denver is 7-3 all-time against Tampa Bay. However, the Bucs boast the most wins by an NFC team, including playoffs since 2020. 

Although it's early in the season, Broncos Country considers Week 3’s matchup a must-win game. As a head coach, Payton has never recorded a winning season if his team starts the first four weeks under .500. 

So how do the Broncos begin to put the brakes on this skid and begin to right the ship against a ravaging foe like the Bucs? Without further ado, here are my critical keys to the Broncos scoring an upset and winning their first game of the season.

Broncos Offense: Keep it Simple, Coach

You know an offense is predictable and disastrous when the fan base is quite literally calling the offensive plays out loud before the ball is snapped in the stadium and from their couches watching the game.

The Broncos currently rank 30th in the NFL with just 26 points scored in two games and have only logged one touchdown thanks to a four-yard Bk Nix scamper into the end zone in Week 1. Pro Football Focus ranks Denver’s offense dead last in the league, as Payton and Nix’s offense has recorded just 26 total first downs through two games. 

In Sunday’s matchup against the Bucs, Payton should commit to a creative running game where at least one back gets more than 11 rushes, something that hasn’t happened for Javonte Williams or Jaleel McLaughlin. Instead of the predictable Power I formation or single-back ace packages on early downs, which signals a run play is coming, Payton needs to utilize misdirection and get the offensive line moving with power runs and counters featuring pulling guards.

It’s time to treat Williams like the physical, 'Angry Runs' punishing bruiser that he’s always been and keep McLaughlin in open space where his 4.44-second speed does his best work. Let’s work in Tyler Badie, whose 16-yard rush was the longest run of the day against Pittsburgh.

Nix will be without starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who went to injured reserve with an MCL injury suffered against the Steelers, setting the stage forAlex Palczewski’s first career start. The 24-year-old Nix will be looking to throw his first touchdown pass against a Bucs defense that has yet to allow a passing score.

Nix is also looking to avoid a third straight game throwing an interception, having thrown four picks in two games, while Tampa aims to build off its two takeaways through the air last week in a surprise win against the Detroit Lions. 

Truth be told, Payton has beaten himself in the last two games by trying to be the smartest play-caller in the NFL instead of trying to exploit matchups. Run the football, don’t overreact, and put your players in the best possible position to make plays. It’s who Payton is — or, at least, that's who he used to be.

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Surtain Must Win Evans Matchup

Football fans are in for a treat this Sunday as one of the league’s most dynamic wide receivers clashes with one of the NFL's premier cornerbacks. It's Patrick Surtain II vs. Mike Evans.

Each team captain has a resume and pelts on the wall, including Pro Bowls and All-Pro honors, in addition to Evans being a Super Bowl LV champion. This will be the first meeting between the two in what is sure to be an exciting battle through four quarters. 

Evans is in his 11th season and has logged eight receptions for 103 yards and two touchdowns this season, proving to be just as consistent a threat now as he’s ever been for opposing defenses. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has an impressive 103.4 passer rating when he targets the 6-foot-5, 231-pound receiver from Texas A&M, making him a staple for the Tampa Bay offense.

Evans' veteran use of leverage and the sideline, his body control, and positioning make him a compelling matchup for ‘PS2,’ who’s already considered among the best cornerbacks in the league in just his fourth season. 

Two games into the season, Surtain has recorded five solo tackles, with two assists, and is credited with one defensive stop. But it’s his pass coverage that has truly been impressive, as he limited DK Metcalf to just five receptions for 37 yards in Week 1. 

Against the Steelers last week, Surtain continued his sticky coverage, allowing just one reception when covering George Pickens for 16 yards. Surtain is currently allowing just 8.8 yards per reception, surrendering 53 total yards against his opponents, and has not given up a touchdown this season. 

There’s no doubt that this will be a physical matchup between two alpha-dogs at their respective positions. The biggest test for Surtain will be fighting through Evans’ aggressive contact without getting frustrated and triggering defensive pass interference penalties in what should be a back-and-forth battle.

Batter & Bruise Baker

Broncos defensive end Zach Allen has been one of the only silver linings for fans to lean on thus far. The 27-year-old is in his second season in Denver and has notched three solo tackles, two assists, three stops, three QB hits, and one sack. Allen's 13 QB pressures are tied for fourth-most with Kansas City's Chris Jones.

Although Allen was limited during this week’s practice with a shoulder injury, he’ll likely suit up to face a Bucs offense that’s still learning to work together under first-year offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Mayfield has been sacked six times in the last two games and has fumbled the ball twice in addition to throwing an interception, boasting a 73.5 completion percentage, 474 yards, and five touchdowns.

Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph knows who he’s facing in Mayfield: a scrambling quarterback who isn’t afraid to embrace a gunslinger mentality while also preferring to take off and run for yardage or the score — not that dissimilar from the last two QBs they faced in Geno Smith and Justin Fields. If Allen and the Broncos' front seven can pressure, hit, and rattle Mayfield, they’ll almost certainly put themselves in a favorable position for a takeaway. 

However, Denver could be without defensive end John Franklin-Myers (concussion) and rush linebacker Baron Browning (foot), who remained sidelined this week at practice. This could be the ideal opportunity for Jonathon Cooper (two sacks), Jonah Elliss (one sack), and Nik Bonitto to tee off on Mayfield in hopes of making him 'Baker the turnover-maker.' 

The Broncos defense that has kept them competitive and alive in the last two games, both of which they lost by one possession. If the Broncos' pass rush can’t hit home for a defense carrying all the team’s water uphill in both directions, this could be another career game for Mayfield.

Like when Baker ruined the Broncos’ Christmas in 2022 with the Los Angeles Rams in a 51-14 drubbing that saw Nathaniel Hackett fired as head coach and earned Mayfield a career opportunity in Tampa. 

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