3 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Chiefs in Season Finale

Here's how the Denver Broncos punch their ticket to the playoffs.

Oct 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) and quarterback Bo Nix (10) before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Holiday Season is officially a wrap, which means that the conclusion of the NFL’s 17-game regular season is also in sight. Week 18 features a must-win game for the 9-7 Denver Broncos, hosting the 15-1 Kansas City Chiefs at Mile High on Sunday. 

The Broncos lost a brutal 30-24 overtime shootout on Saturday to the 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals, sending them on a two-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Cincy's postseason hopes were rekindled.

In each of their last two losses, the Broncos squandered away ideal opportunities to clinch their first playoff berth since 2015, but they’ll get another crack at it this Sunday against the first-place Chiefs, who will reportedly rest most of their starters.

While the Broncos went 2-2 in the month of December, they’ve compiled a 5-2 home record and haven’t lost a game in Denver since Week 6 in October against the 10-6 Los Angeles Chargers, who clinched a playoff berth in Week 17.

What'll it take for the Broncos to come out on top? Let’s review three keys to the Broncos’ last opportunity to reach the playoffs with a win in Denver against their dreaded divisional rivals.

3-Headed Sack Monster Must Pounce

The only silver lining in Denver’s overtime loss in Cincinnati was the defense recording seven sacks from five separate players, setting a new franchise record with 58 sacks in 16 games. 

On Sunday against the Chiefs' B squad, the Broncos defense will once again enter the contest ranked first in the NFL in sacks, led by Pro Bowl rush linebacker Nik Bonitto with 11.5. In early December, Bonitto was a dark horse candidate for Defensive Player of the Year odds, but in the last two games, he’s failed to reach the opposing QB. Still, the third-year defender was named a Pro Bowl starter to represent the AFC along with cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the odds-on favorite to win DPoY.  

Denver’s pass-rushing posse continues to show strength in numbers, with defensive tackle Zach Allen coming off a 3.5-sack performance in addition to rush linebacker Jonathon Cooper, who notched 1.5 sacks against Joe Burrow. Allen (8.5), who many feel was a Pro Bowl snub, is within striking distance of double-digit sacks, as is Cooper (9.5). 

Ninth-year veteran QB Carson Wentz, the former 2016 No. 2 overall pick, will get his first start for the Chiefs this Sunday. The 32-year-old is on his fifth NFL team and has completed 2-of-2 passes during the season for Kansas City, with all signs indicating that Wentz and the Chiefs will most likely go their separate ways at the conclusion of the season. 

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid believes Wentz is capable of being a starter once again, but the same man who owns a 47-45 starting QB record with a history of being inaccurate and inconsistent will be tested against a desperate and dangerous Denver defense looking to send him back to the bench.

It’s a simple formula for Vance Joseph’s defense this week: attack Wentz with a variety of pressure and he’ll cough up the football along with the game. 67 interceptions and 72 fumbles in his 97-game career should have this Broncos defense foaming at the mouth, ready to pounce. 

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Payton Must Feed Nix & Sutton 

Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton has been a team captain in Denver for the last four seasons, but it wasn’t until rookie playmaker Bo Nix came to town that the seventh-year veteran found what he was looking for in the form of a franchise quarterback. 

Sutton is just 17 receiving yards shy of achieving his second-ever 1,000-yard plus season in his career and has been targeted more than ever since being drafted by Denver back in 2018. In 16 games played this season, he’s recorded team highs in targets (128), receptions (76), receiving yards (983), touchdowns (seven), and first downs (53). 

Needless to say, Sutton has proven to be available, consistent, and an absolute favorite target of Nix throughout the regular season. He’s also been a huge component of Nix’s development, success, and confidence this season, which is why head coach and play-caller Sean Payton must feed both Broncos playmakers on Sunday. 

Against the Bengals, Sutton nabbed five catches for 55 yards, including a touchdown, but he felt mostly like an afterthought in the topsy-turvy Denver offense. Wideout Marvin Mims Jr., who was named a Pro Bowl returner this week, has been making positive strives as of late. Mims had two deep catches in the month of December that drew the awe of fans and media alike. 

But it’s time to heat up the Nix-to-Sutton connection again, especially against the Chiefs' second-string defensive lineup. Kansas City will likely be without several starters, including cornerback Trent McDuffie, linebackers Leo Chenal, Nick Bolton, and Drue Tranquill, as well as defensive lineman Chris Jones, which should open this Broncos offense up for gaining yards and first downs and scoring points.

While I can appreciate the youth movement in a Broncos' wide receiver room that includes Mims, Devaughn Vele, and Troy Franklin, it’ll be critical for Nix and Sutton to sync up early and often, not just for the chance of getting a victory to be in the playoffs, but to continue their offensive success in the coming weeks should the Broncos earn the dub.

Avoid the Pitchforks

Sunday should have every member of Broncos Country equally excited and nervous. On one hand, the Broncos have finally earned their first winning season since 2016, albeit with a rookie quarterback and a head coach in his second year with the club.

Conversely, the Broncos have lost each of their last two games by seven points or less and have choked away two opportunities to earn a postseason bid with their backs against the walls in Week 18’s home finale.

Perhaps the third time’s the charm.

I shudder to think what a loss to the Chiefs junior varsity lineup in Denver with playoffs on the line would do to this team’s confidence, trajectory, and, dare I say, employment status of players, coaches, and other personnel. 

Call me crazy, but I don’t think that Andy Reid’s crew is willing to roll over and die in the final game of the season, especially as a one-loss team that is also the back-to-back World Champions eyeing a three-peat. Kansas City has played spoiler and king of the hill against Denver for so long, I’m afraid that ruining the Broncos' season and playoff potential is at the forefront this Sunday.

Payton must have his entire team ready to rock and roll at 2:25 pm MDT, and the game plan must be thoughtful, productive, and effective, including the play-calls. It doesn’t matter that expectations for this season have been exceeded, nor that this is just Payton’s second season in Denver.

The Broncos have arrived at a significant fork in the road with one path leading to the NFL playoffs where anything is possible. A Wildcard team can win the whole enchilada, just ask the 1997 Broncos.

The other path leads right back to the familiar feeling of cleaning out lockers in early January only to be left within the doldrums of obscurity and insignificance. This season has been too much fun for Denver to throw it all away, so there’s no other option for the Broncos but to win this game.

Should they lose, the Broncos will likely face a figurative angry mob of pitchforks and lanterns. Should they win, anything and everything becomes possible.

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