3 Keys to a Broncos Upset Victory Over Jets in Week 4

How do the Denver Broncos come out on top at MetLife Stadium?

Sep 15, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) runs the ball against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos finally won a football game last Sunday as heavy underdogs against a red-hot Buccaneers team in Tampa. Instead of flying back to Denver to celebrate rookie quarterback Bo Nix’s first professional victory alongside his teammates, head coach Sean Payton flew the Broncos to West Virginia early in the week to prepare for a second consecutive road game, this time against the New York Jets.

Week 4’s matchup lists the 2-1 Jets as the early favorites against the 1-2 Broncos in New York. The Broncos currently lead the all-time series 22-18-1, which includes the regular and postseason. The last time the Orange and Blue beat Gang Green was in 2020, when Brett Rypien outlasted Sam Darnold with a final score of 37-28.

In 2023, it was a Zach Wilson-led Jets squad beating the Broncos 31-21 in Denver, which came on the heels of a fiery exchange of words from Payton, Aaron Rodgers, and Nathaniel Hackett, Payton's predecessor. So how can the Broncos shock the NFL for a second-straight week and pull off an unsuspecting upset against a dynamic Jets team? 

It won’t be easy, but I like the Broncos' chances, as they’ll have an opportunity to return home with a .500 record with the rest of the season ahead of them. Let’s review three keys to victory for the Broncos to ground the Jets. 

McLaughlin & Badie Must be Leading Rushers, Not Nix

Nix finally looked like the dominant signal-caller that fans witnessed all summer at training camp and through two games of preseason action. His responsible decision-making and ability to complete passes last week quickly yielded a 61% completion rate with 216 passing yards to nine different receivers. He also took care of the football, with zero turnovers, although he remains the only starting rookie quarterback without a passing score.

But what Nix has missed in passing touchdowns he’s made up for as the Broncos leading rusher this season. His 18 carries for 107 yards have averaged 5.9 yards per carry with two rushing touchdowns.

The team captain has also rushed for 11 first downs and has been among the league’s best rushing QBs in three weeks of action. Nix’s mobility has moved the chains and scored points for Payton’s offense, something that Broncos Country yearns to see more of. 

However, it’s past time for the Broncos running backs to shoulder more of the workload. Javonte Williams looks like a shell of himself after losing a fumble and reps against the Bucs, leaving the limelight to Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie. No Broncos running back has totaled more than 11 carries in a game this year, although Badie had a season-high 70 yards rushing on nine attempts last week, tied with Nix in carries. 

Payton should utilize Badie as a between-the-tacklers runner in power I, strength, weak, and counter plays that’ll feed a Broncos offensive line that looked dominant against the Bucs, refusing to relinquish a single sack. This will allow the starting five to combat a talented and nasty Jets defense by meeting them at the point of the attack, instead of retreating in pass protection.

McLaughlin must find space as he did in Tampa on the perimeter in addition to screens and short passes, which will keep New York honest in blitz packages. If Payton can scheme a productive and consistent run game this Sunday, his rookie QB can operate without handcuffs and play a loose, fun brand of football both with his legs and arm.

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Cover Conklin, Eliminate TE Targets

Sep 15, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) and tight end Tyler Conklin (83) takes the field against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Patrick Surtain II will surely lock up against Jets’ No. 1 wideout Garrett Wilson, as he does weekly against his opponent's favorite playmaker. Surtain has shut down Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, and George Pickens thus far, limiting all three men to seven combined receptions for 75 yards without allowing a single touchdown.

Meanwhile, Rodgers and Wilson have combined for 15 receptions on 26 targets for 150 yards and a touchdown. Suffice it to say, the Jets offense will most likely be testing Surtain's coverage abilities in addition to his coverage mate Riley Moss, who was Pro Football Focus' highest-graded cornerback in Week 3. 

The injury to Alex Singleton has left Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph reeling with a bare linebacker corps. The timing couldn’t be worse. Singleton has been a tackling machine, so Joseph’s defense must prioritize the Jets' short passing attack, specifically the tight ends. 

In the Jets 24-3 blowout over New England, Rodgers zeroed in on tight end Tyler Conklin as his favorite target, who nabbed five receptions for 93 yards and averaged 15.5 yards per target.

For years now, one of Rodgers' favorites consists of a play-action pass that boots to the right side as he searches for a tight end on a five to seven-yard out route that usually sets his offense up for a short-yardage scenario to move the chains. It’s not flashy, but Rodgers can consistently move the chains by targeting his tight ends, especially against a defense that will miss their leading tackler.

Joseph must be ready.

Stop Hall on the Ground

Joseph’s defense has drastically improved from 2023 through the first three weeks of this season. The Broncos have recorded 11 sacks, which ranks top five, and ranks sixth in scoring, allowing just 15.3 points per game. Denver has allowed just five touchdowns all season. 

But this week’s test against a Rodgers-led offense is a whole different scenario as Jets running back Breece Hall presents problems in both the running and passing game. The 23-year-old out of Iowa State has posted 46 rushes for 170 yards, nine first downs, and a touchdown, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. His 5-foot-11, 217-pound frame allows him to run between the tackles and on the perimeter, making him a jack-of-all-trades in Hackett’s scheme. 

Jets right tackle Morgan Moses will most likely miss Sunday’s matchup with a knee injury suffered last week, signaling a vulnerability on Rodgers’ O-line. If a Broncos front seven that posted seven sacks and nine QB hits on Baker Mayfield can contain the edge and pressure Rodgers, we could expect Hackett to abandon the running game, opting for an air-raid style of attack. 

Then again, Hall remains the Jets' third-leading receiver with 16 receptions on 19 targets for 120 yards, four first downs, and a touchdown. He averages 7.5 yards per reception.

Although Hall is equally effective as a pass-catcher, it’s critical that Denver’s defense stuffs the running game. This will allow the Broncos offense to contend with the time of possession and prevent Rodgers from milking the clock if the Jets take an early lead.

It's a 'pick your poison' proposition with Hall in this one, folks, as he’ll have a chance to be a game-changer for New York as a receiver or running back. The Broncos can't allow him to be both or it'll spell a nightmare scenario in the Big Apple.

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