3 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Saints on TNF

Here's how the Denver Broncos emerge from Caesars Superdome with a win.

Oct 13, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler (18) warms up before a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Caesars Superdome. / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

For the first time since he was traded to the Denver Broncos, head coach Sean Payton will return to face the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football. The Week 7 matchup features a 3-3 Broncos team coming off a 23-16 loss, while the 2-4 Saints look to rebound from a 51-27 drumming.

Payton coached the Saints for 16 years, during which time he won Super Bowl XLIV, four consecutive NFC South titles, and totaled 161 wins, becoming the most successful head coach in the New Orleans franchise. TNF will be the first of two prime-time matchups for the Broncos this season, with the second game coming in December on Monday Night Football against the Cleveland Browns. 

The Saints will be Denver's second NFC South opponent this season. Denver previously beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons are still on the schedule.

The Broncos own a 2-1 away record and are currently third in the AFC West. The Broncos are looking to get back above .500 for the second time this season. 

In a short week ahead of primetime action, what'll it take for Payton to emerge with a victory? Here are three keys to a Broncos victory against the Saints. 

The Nix Fix: Force-Feed Courtland Sutton

The Broncos have had ample opportunity to trade Sutton in over the past few offseasons, and his name has frequented the trade-block rumor mill. So, when Denver restructured the seventh-year receiver's contract this past summer worth $15.2 million with $1.5M in incentives, fans rejoiced for Nix's presumed favorite target. 

But that hasn’t been the case for Sutton and Nix thus far, with the 29-year-old Sutton only nabbing 21 receptions for 277 yards and two touchdowns this season. Last week, Sutton was able to corral a remarkable 15-yard, one-handed touchdown catch, finishing with four receptions for 53 yards.

For most of the season, Payton has struggled to find ways to scheme No. 14 open, and when Nix finally looks his way, it’s usually too little, too late. While Nix has thrown for five passing touchdowns and rushed for three more scores, he also has five interceptions. Nix has turned the ball over in all three Broncos losses this season.

So why not throw caution to the wind and force-feed Sutton the football? Stop being afraid to make a mistake early because they’re going to happen anyway. 

Aside from Nix, the Broncos offense only has two players with multiple touchdowns in — running back Jaleel McLaughlin and Sutton. It’s time to break glass in case of emergency, as this TNF matchup against the Saints could be the rallying point for what remains of the Broncos’ regular season. 

I’d advise a healthy dose of fades, digs, outs, and slant routes that will allow Sutton to get open and run after the catch. Bubble screens will be tricky to pull off with a beaten-up Broncos offensive line, so it’d behoove Denver to go for the Saints' jugular in the deep and middle passing game. 

In Week 6, the Saints allowed Bucs wideout Chris Godwin to catch 11 passes for 125 yards and two scores. Mayfield was able to find seven separate receivers and threw for a whopping 325 yards and four touchdowns in addition to four interceptions, so the formula is evident.

If the Broncos can’t find a way to get Sutton the ball on TNF, Payton could be the latest head coach looking for a new receiver via the trade market to assist his budding rookie quarterback. 

What happens next on the Broncos beat? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Bait & Switch Rattler 

Prior to selecting Nix with the No.12 overall pick, Payton kicked the tires on South Carolina's Spencer Rattler in the pre-draft evaluation process. Some mocksters theorized that Rattler could’ve landed in Denver with a late-round pick. 

Instead, the 24-year-old, who played at both Oklahoma and South Carolina, was drafted by the Saints in the fifth round (No. 150). After team captain and starting QB Derek Carr was injured in Week 5 with an oblique strain, Rattler made his first career start against the Bucs last week. 

Rattler completed 22-of-40 passes for 243 yards and one touchdown, in addition to rushing four times for 27 yards. Not bad for his first start until you look at the Bucs’ aggressive assault on the rookie that resulted in 10 QB hits, five sacks, two interceptions, and a fumble, to the tune of a 51-27 Saints loss to Tampa Bay. 

While I respect Rattler's competitive spirit, his game is extremely reckless and vulnerable to turnovers when the defensive pressure is dialed up. Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain has not practiced this short week for Denver and is unlikely to clear concussion protocol before Thursday night, so Rattler and the Saints coaching staff will likely zero in on his absence, most likely testing Riley Moss and Levi Wallace. 

But this is where Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph must implement a plethora of exotic blitz packages along with defensive line twists and stunts. Denver’s defense can also camouflage Rattler’s pre-snap reads by ducking in and out of man and zone coverage schemes, utilizing nickel and dime back specialist Ja'Quan McMillian.

Joseph could also bet on the rookie quarterback in pass coverage with his secondary, allowing four-man rushes that should hit home with a Saints O-line that is battling injuries. The Broncos' pass rush, led by Zach Allen, John Franklin-Meyers, Jonathon Cooper, and Nik Bonitto, should be foaming at the mouth for this matchup and will have the chance to make the biggest impact of the game by pummeling and panicking a reckless Rattler. 

Poise & Patience the Priority for Payton

Football is an emotional game, and there isn’t much that gets a fan base, team, players, and even coaches more fired up than a potential revenge game against a former team. While Payton wasn’t drummed out of New Orleans by any means, he and the franchise had agreed it was time to part ways. 

Ironically, Payton’s former senior defensive coordinator and friend, Dennis Allen, will be across the sideline from leading the Saints. Payton and Allen are both in Year 2 as head coaches of their respective teams. Allen was also on Payton’s championship coaching staff from Super Bowl XLIV.

Ironically, Allen also spent time with the Broncos as defensive coordinator in 2011 under then-head coach John Fox and has been coaching in the NFL since 2002. As much as I’m looking forward to seeing how Saints fans receive Payton leading up to kickoff, I’m equally concerned about the human element in this game, which is represented by pride and emotion. 

Payton wants to beat his former team for the proverbial ‘I told you so,’ but it can’t be at the expense of his current team. The Broncos offense hovers at the bottom of the league (No. 31) on third down, converting approximately 25% of its attempts. However, Denver is in the top five of the league for fourth-down conversions with a 77.8 % rate, leaving a skewed set of results to analyze. But Payton is 0-4 on coaching challenges thrown this season, indicating a series of flawed utilizations of the red flag.

To be clear, I’m still all-in on Payton here, but there need to be continued efforts and drastic improvements with the Broncos offense under Nix. Sometimes, I can’t help but feel that the fiery 61-year-old’s ego can get the better of him, just like the rest of us when it comes to overcomplicating the playbook. 

That same confidence and bold ability to be unapologetically himself has earned Payton a surplus of success since he began his NFL coaching career in 1997. It’ll be a delicate balance on TNF.

Payton will thirst for personal revenge while also attempting to lead his team to its fourth win of the season. Let's hope he can manage the emotional roller coaster well.

---

Follow Mile High Huddle on X and Facebook and subscribe on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!