New Metric Reveals Diverging Trajectory Broncos & Lions Are On

This metric reveals the diverging trajectory the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions are on.

One of the interesting storylines going into the Denver Broncos' Week 15 tilt with the Detroit Lions is how their defenses have gone in opposite directions. Broncos fans, of course, know about the defensive struggles the team had in the first few weeks of the season. 

But after a disastrous first five weeks, the Broncos' fortunes turned around. Meanwhile, the Lions have gone the opposite direction, with a defense that did some good things early on but hasn’t been as impressive as of late.

Aaron Schatz, the man behind the advanced football metric known as DVOA, analyzed this curiosity in his most recent analysis of the NFL offenses and defenses that are either on the rise or decline. He first notes that the Lions, who rank No. 7 overall in DVOA, have struggled on defense as of late.

The Lions defense is really struggling over the last few weeks, going from third in Weeks 1-6 (-16.6%) to 31st in Weeks 7-14 (12.9%) ahead of only the Washington Commanders. 

Meanwhile, the Broncos' defense has significantly improved. Remember, a minus (-) rating in DVOA is a good thing. 

Through Week 7, the Broncos were still last in the NFL with 30.0% defensive DVOA. In Weeks 8-14, the Broncos have -16.1 defensive DVOA (fourth).

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The Broncos made multiple personnel changes after the first few weeks of the season. They’ve also benefitted from turnovers, particularly fumble recoveries — a random act even though forcing fumbles can be a learned skill.

The Lions, meanwhile, have given up more points since coming off their Week 9 bye. Opponents have averaged 29.8 points per game against the Lions from Weeks 10-14. Compare that to Weeks 1-5, in which opponents averaged 18.8 points per game.

The Lions also haven’t generated that many turnovers, with 14 for the season, only four of which have been generated since their bye week. Meanwhile, the Broncos have an NFL-high 24 for the season, with 12 since their Week 9 bye.

Early in the season, the Lions looked like a team that might claim the top seed in the NFC, but now may be third at best, assuming they win the NFC North. As for the Broncos, when they opened at 1-5 for the season, some may have taken the “wait until next year” posture, but they now have a legitimate shot at the playoffs and are just one game out of first place in the AFC West.

Saturday’s game may very well be a harbinger for both teams as far as their postseason fate goes. But if both defenses keep going in the direction they are — with the Broncos improving and the Lions getting worse — that could be to Denver's advantage, assuming Russell Wilson and the offense get the job done.

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