Analytics-Based Mock Draft Lands Broncos a Sleeper QB

Sean Payton marveled at the Denver Broncos' analytics department. Perhaps it'll play a part in the draft.

The Denver Broncos enter the 2023 NFL draft with only five selections, and it’s vital they use every piece of information available to ensure solid picks who can help the team. The prospects have been through testing, film study, interviews, and more in preparation for the draft, but one final piece of the puzzle is analytics.

Using NFL draft data from 2009 to 2022 and examining how those drafted players fared in the league, I've calculated the probabilities of them becoming an impact player or a primary starter for each round/pick and position. The fact is, the draft is an imperfect process, and the numbers show that it is comparable to playing the game of craps. 

However, using every piece of information available will only help make teams more accurate. If the Broncos used the draft value calculator, found here, this is how a mock draft could look. Using it in combination with a mock draft simulator that projects trades, here is the Broncos draft for 2023.

Round 3, Pick 67: Joe Tippmann | C | Ohio State

In this scenario, Tippmann was available at 67 and was easily the best player on the board while also being in a position of need. Interior offensive linemen selected in the third round have a probability of 0.086 of becoming an impact player and 0.629 of becoming a primary starter (the best of all positions in this round by a significant amount).

The selection was of a player who could step in as a starter from day one, but also tremendous value where selected. If this scenario were to take place in reality, it would be a steal for the Broncos.

Round 3, Pick 68: Trade

Broncos Get: Picks 85, a 2024 third-rounder, and a 2024 fourth-rounder for No. 68 and No. 139 (Round 5). 

To only move back 17 spots in the third round, the Broncos received future value in 2024 to be in a better position to make a trade-up if necessary. The Broncos also acquired an increase in the probability of selecting a primary starter of 0.176 (from 0.443 to 0.619) and gained a 0.100 probability of selecting two primary starters. 

The probability of selecting an impact player was low but increased by 0.060. That was good value in a trade and set the team up for a more impactful draft in 2024.

Round 3, Pick 85: Devon Achane | RB | Texas A&M

Like the selection of Tippmann, this was a case of Achane being the best player available. The Broncos could use another player at the running back position. In this instance, he was a runner whose style is a good change of pace to Samaje Perine.

The best player on the board, combined with the second-highest probability of becoming an impact player of all positions in the third round (0.107), was too good to pass up.

What happens next for the Broncos? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second and sign up for our free newsletter and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Round 4, Pick 108: Zack Kuntz | TE | Old Dominion

The selection at 108 was between wide receiver, tight end, linebacker, or running back. Players at each of these positions were valued similarly, so the draft value calculator by position determined the correct selection.

Tight ends selected in the fourth round have a probability of becoming a primary starter of 0.462. Linebacker came in at a distant second at 0.292, and both wide receivers and running back came last with 0.130. By weighing the probability of the tight end being the most likely position to “hit” in the NFL, it was a no-brainer pick at 108.

Round 6, Pick 195: Dorian Thompson-Robinson | QB | UCLA

Finding a player in the sixth round who makes it in the NFL is very slim. At 195, two choices of equal value were on the board; a quarterback or an interior defensive lineman.

The quarterback position has nearly triple the probability of becoming a primary starter (0.087) than a player at the interior defensive line (0.029) when selected in the sixth round.

Taking a quarterback here with so few picks in 2023 seems like a luxury selection, but the draft value calculator indicated it was by far the best choice.

In this mock draft, the Broncos walked away with only four selections out of the five they could have taken, but the future capital gained in the trade for 68 was too valuable.

The extra third and fourth-round picks gained could be packaged to get the team a second-rounder in 2024, which they used in the Sean Payton trade. The deal would give them at least one selection in every round in 2024.

---

Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.

Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!