Examining Whether Broncos Indeed Have NFL's Best CB Trio

This is compelling evidence on behalf of the Denver Broncos' cornerback trio.

Oct 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) brings in a interception away from Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (89) in the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos defense has been a force to be reckoned with, showcasing exceptional football through three games. The standout performance of Denver's cornerback trio — Patrick Surtain II, Riley Moss, and Ja’Quan McMillian — significantly contributes to this defensive prowess.

This trio's stellar play allows Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to strategize effectively with the rest of his unit. It raises whether this is the best trio currently in the NFL. 

My X/Twitter feed has this question all over it, with only one team consistently mentioned as a rival for that title. However, I will examine the other four teams in the top five regarding EPA/Pass allowed, where the Broncos ranked second.

Now, this coverage all pass plays, and we are focusing specifically on the three corners. To figure this out, we will look at individual coverage EPA, catch rate over expected, base catch rate, touchdowns, interceptions, tight-window percentage, average separation allowed, and team blitz rate. 

The Broncos' four rivals we'll be examining are the Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, and Chicago Bears. The Bears were consistently mentioned as the rivals for the title with the Broncos. 

Blitz Rate

Let’s start with the blitz rate, the only team-based stat. The Broncos have a league-high blitz rate of 41.8%, which puts more strain on their corners as fewer bodies drop into coverage. The Vikings are behind the Broncos at  41.1%; the Jets have the 12th-lowest and the Bears at 14th-lowest. That leaves the Titans with the third-lowest blitz rate in the league at 18.5%. 

We will eliminate the Titans from contention before getting into the rest of the stats. Why? Well, that would be an injury. Their starting trio was L’Jarius Sneed, Roger McCreary, and Chidobe Awuzie.

However, Awuzie got hurt, and the Titans turned to Jarvis Brownlee Jr. Those two played an almost equal number of snaps over the season. 

Coverage EPA

Let’s examine the coverage EPA. Sauce Gardner is allowing a +10.1 coverage EPA, which is a positive EPA is terrible news for the defender. Of the 12 remaining players, Gardner is one of three in the positives, and the others are at a +1.8 and +0.1 EPA, which would be Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson of the Bears.

D.J. Reed has been balling for the Jets, but Gardner's play will eliminate them. Maybe Gardner can turn his season around, but he has been terrible initially. The Jets also had an injury at the nickel corner, which plays into this, but it wasn’t an automatic elimination like the Titans, who had the injury occur at a boundary corner. 

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The nine remaining corners and their EPA are Surtain (-11.5), Moss (-6.2), McMillian (-17.6), Gordon (+1.8), Jaylon Johnson (-6.00), Stevenson (+0.1), Shaquil Griffin (-10.9), Byron Murphy (-4.3), and Stephon Gilmore (-6.0). It's funny how the Bears' three corners are mentioned as the ones to rival the Broncos trio, yet they boast two players, allowing for positive coverage in the EPA. 

The three Bears corners have allowed one touchdown to two interceptions, the Vikings trio has two touchdowns and three interceptions, and the Broncos have one touchdown and three interceptions. All three are pretty close in that aspect, so they remain in contention. 

Average Separation & Tight-Window %

Next up is average separation and tight window percentage. These two stats go well together, so let's see how things stack up.

First up are the Bears, where Johnson allows an average of 3.5 yards of separation and a tight window percentage of 16.7%, Stevenson 2.6 and 17.2%, and Gordon 3.8 and 10.5%. The Vikings are Gilmore at 2.4 and 21.9%, Murphy at 3.3 and 18.4%, and Griffin at 3.6 and 15%. Finally, the Broncos, with McMillian at 3.4 and 19.4%, Moss at 2.0 and 35.3%, and Surtain at 2.3 and 40%. 

This could be enough to close the case. The Broncos aren’t allowing more yards of separation and forcing tighter window throws.

All three of their corners are in the top four in tight window percentage. Next up is the catch rate and catch rate over expected (CROE), which examines whether the catch is expected to be made. A negative means they force fewer catches than expected when looking at each catch attempt against them. 

The Bears are the closest to being eliminated, so let’s look at them first. Gordon allows the highest catch rate at 73.7%, but that is still -3.5 in CROE. Stevenson is 51.7, -8.3 CROE, and Johnson is 44.4% and -21.6 CROE. While they could’ve been eliminated in the last part, this kept them in. They are forcing teams to struggle to secure the catch.  

For the Vikings, Griffin is allowing 45% and -19.2 CROE, Gilmore 59.4% and -2 CROE, and Murphy 69.4% and +4.2 CROE. Then the Broncos, with Surtain at 66.7% and +5.3 CROE, Moss at 55.9% and +3.7 CROE, and McMillian at 61.3% and -9.2 CROE. This is where the Broncos lose much of the ground they made for themselves with the other two teams. 

Verdict

Do the Broncos have the best corner trio in the NFL after five weeks? Yes.

The Broncos could do a better job of lowering the catch rates, especially with the tight-window throws they are forcing and the low yards of separation. However, they're sticky in coverage and don’t get the benefit of extra bodies in coverage like the Bears corners do. 

An argument can be made for the Vikings, with how much they are blitzing and how they are doing in coverage. What puts the Broncos ahead of them is that they aren’t opening the door for plays to happen because they are looser in coverage. 

While these are only a handful of stats, you can dig into more and get the same picture. The Broncos cornerback trio is currently the best in the NFL. 

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