Broncos Offense Afforded Rebound Opportunity the Next Two Weeks

The stars align for the Denver Broncos to finally show something on offense.

Sep 15, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) huddles with teammates in the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos offense has a chance to right the ship and start playing better football. After playing the 16th, 11th, 20th, and second-best defenses in EPA/Play over the last four weeks, Denver faces arguably what could be the easiest of its remaining games this season at the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night and next week versus the Carolina Panthers.

For an offense that has put up a goose egg in the first half in half of its games so far this season, putting up more efficient performances should help the confidence of the Broncos organization and the fanbase alike.

There are ample reasons for the Broncos’ offensive ineptitude through the first six weeks of the season, but the metrics indicate that Denver is currently one of the single worst offenses in football. Ranking 26th in EPA/Play, 28th in success rate, and 26th in EPA per play with equally insufficient play from both the pass and run offenses, Denver desperately needs to start performing at a better level to help take advantage of the team’s strong defense and special teams.

Pass Offense
EPA/Play: -0.141 (27th)
Success Rate: 38.0% (29th)
Explosive Play Rate: 9.8% (t-6th)

Rush Offense
EPA/Play: -0.102 (22nd)
Success Rate: 41.7% (13th)
Explosive Play Rate: 11.4% (12th)

— Nick Kendell 🏔 (@NickKendellMHH) October 16, 2024

The Broncos lack talent at the skill positions and are dealing with ample injuries across the offensive line. Denver is dealing with the vagaries of starting a rookie quarterback. But even with all the caveats, what the Broncos have put on the field under offensive-minded head coach Sean Payton simply has not been good enough.

Fortunately for the Broncos and the psyche of the fan base, the NFL is very much a week-to-week league. Denver can just as easily turn the vibes around with solid performances over the next two weeks against a crashing Saints team and a flailing Panthers squad. The Saints started hot the first two weeks of the season but have since lost four in a row with their offense and defense injured and plummeting.

Since Week 3, the Saints defense ranks 25th in EPA/Play. They have been fine against the pass, ranking 14th in EPA/Play but they are dead-last against the run in the metric and second to last in rush success rate.

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Thursday night might not be a coming-out party for Bo Nix and the Broncos passing offense, but look for the offensive line and running backs to have a day. If not, it may be time to truly question what is so broken with Denver’s rushing attack given how much the team has spent on the offensive line.

The Saints might be even worse than what their numbers over the last four weeks indicate if what they did versus Tampa Bay last week is any indication. Last week, the Saints gave up 51 points and 594 yards to the Bucs.

The Saints accumulated a total of 15 missed tackles and allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 325 yards while only going 1-of-8 on passes of 10-plus air yards. A defense in complete and total disarray now on a short week.

While the Panthers were not as comically bad as the Saints were last week, the team struggled mightily against the run as well as the second-worst EPA/Play performance against the run in Week 6 (only ahead of the Saints) while also struggling against the pass. Ranking as the 30th defense in EPA/Play while 30th vs. the pass and 29th versus the run, the Panthers look like a team destined for a lottery selection in the 2025 NFL draft (at least they have their first-round pick this season).

It would be unfair to expect the Broncos, who have been one of the worst offenses in the NFL so far this season, to come out and look like the 2013 Peyton Manning-led Broncos even against the struggling Saints and Panthers. Denver has its share of injuries and young players the team is developing and evaluating.

Given just how poor the offense has looked for most of the season, going up against these next two defensive opponents should allow for some confidence-building and success on offense.

If Denver fails to field even a league-average offensive output over the next two weeks, it’s probably fair to start questioning whether this unit can improve enough to keep them in the playoff race going forward and potentially waste what has been one of the best defense/special teams combos in the league this season.

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