Broncos vs. Panthers: Two Crucial Matchups that Must be Won

The Denver Broncos have to win these crucial matchups.

Nov 27, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn (8) breaks up a pass intended for Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

With the Denver Broncos aiming to get to 5-3 after their first eight games, they must beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. While the Panthers are among the worst teams in the NFL, the Broncos can't overlook them and take this game for granted, especially with their following slate of games coming. 

The Broncos must still be aware of some matchups with the Panthers if they want to secure the win. While they've struggled, the Panthers have some talent who can make the Broncos pay.

Let's examine the two key matchups that will dictate the outcome of Broncos-Panthers.

Broncos Pass Rush vs. Panthers LT

Let’s first look at Ikem Ekwonu against the Broncos pass rushers. Ekwonu is the Panthers' left tackle and has allowed 14 pressures this season. According to Pro Football Focus, those 14 pressures allowed are the 17th-most out of 36 qualifying tackles. That puts him in the middle of the pack of all tackles and ninth-most among 19 left tackles. 

Overall, the Panthers have the 10th-lowest pressure rate allowed, and no other offensive linemen have allowed more than 10 pressures. However, the Panthers have also had seven different offensive linemen play at least 100 snaps this season, with an eighth player sitting at 98 total snaps played. Carolina has dealt with some injuries, with Ekwonu being one of the two mainstays on the line. 

Broncos rush linebacker Nik Bonitto has posted a sack in five straight games and has settled down working against the left tackle over the past five weeks, starting when Baron Browning was put on injured reserve. While there are issues with Bonitto as a run defender, the Broncos should continue to stick with him as the starter working against the left tackle. That would put Bonitto against Ekwonu, and they can sub in Browning and rookie Jonah Elliss. 

On the season, Bonitto has 20 pressures on 156 pass-rushing snaps. That is a reasonable pressure rate.

With how quickly he gets off the snap, he can create issues for Ekwonu early and work off that. Ekwonu has struggled to be consistent with his get-off and has been put in a bad spot early in the rep. Bonitto has to have something to win after that, as Ekwonu has recovered from the issues well. 

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Bo Nix vs. Jaycee Horn

Horn was selected right before the Broncos picked  Patrick Surtain II in the 2021 NFL draft. He's been hit-or-miss as a cornerback this season.

Horn does well as a run defender, but he has allowed five touchdowns to one interception in coverage, according to NFL+'s pro stats. However, he allows a negative 7.9% catch rate over expected while allowing 16 catches on 33 targets. His average separation is 2.3 yards, so he plays sticky in coverage. 

However, allowing five touchdowns on 16 catches isn’t ideal and speaks to Horn's game's hit-or-miss aspect. The Broncos need to challenge him, as it will help set the tone.

That said, Nix still has to be cautious, as the tight coverage Horn plays can lead to turnovers. It's likely that Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero will have Horn on Courtland Sutton, but that isn’t a favorable matchup for the Broncos. The Broncos will need to do what they can to get Horn on one of the other receivers and look for openings that way. 

So, this is an exciting matchup to look at. Matchups usually involve attacking a weakness or being weary of a strength, but this is neither. Horn hasn’t been a weakness for the Panthers defense, but you still want to attack him in coverage. 

It could be a confidence booster for Nix and the receivers. If they can go up against a corner and find success, that can carry over with the slate of cornerbacks they have coming up. The Broncos need to build confidence in a game where if it doesn’t work, they can turn elsewhere, especially the ground game, with the Panthers being a bottom-three run defense in the NFL. 

What holds this team back is the inconsistency of the offense, primarily the passing game. The Broncos are boom-or-bust as one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL, and they live off explosive plays, which is an unsustainable avenue for success in the NFL.

The Broncos rank second in explosive play rate, but in other metrics, they're 24th at the highest.

Broncos Team Efficiency Rankings Through 7 Weeks:
EXPLOSIVE PLAY TEAM

Overall Offense
EPA/Play: -0.097 (25th)
Success Rate: 41.8% (28th)
Explosive Play Rate: 14.6% (2nd)
DVOA: --7.8% (24th) https://t.co/7vngkoNred pic.twitter.com/5W0XI4C0YP

— Nick Kendell 🏔 (@NickKendellMHH) October 22, 2024

So go out there and challenge Horn. Try to build confidence in challenging tough corners while working to develop a consistent and sustainable passing offense.

If they struggle against Horn, the Broncos can turn to other elements to get the offense going, but it would also be a bad sign if they can’t challenge him with the slate of corners they have coming up. 

The Broncos need to win these two matchups to help them walk out with another win to get to 5-3, but it is more than this game. If the Broncos can win here, they can build up a lot of confidence going forward, and for a young team, that is vital.

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