Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II's DPoY Bid Gets Unfortunate Boost

Let's examine how much this could actually help the Denver Broncos' shutdown corner.

Sep 22, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The New York Giants suffered an unfortunate blow earlier this week when defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence suffered a season-ending elbow injury. It was bad news for Lawrence, but it thins out the field of Defensive Player of the Year candidates.

#Giants potential defensive player of the year Dexter Lawrence, who suffered a dislocated elbow in the loss to the #Cowboys, is expected to miss the rest of the season, with Brian Daboll saying it’s “long-term.”

With 5 games to go, Lawrence has no choice but to look to 2025. pic.twitter.com/fQ68G3lZ7v

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 29, 2024

Will it make much of a difference for Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II? In the final analysis, it's an indirect boost, only because it narrows the field, but it doesn't change how hard it is for a cornerback to win the DPoY.

Over the past 10 years, only one corner has won DPoY, and that was Stephon Gilmore in 2019. It's almost always an edge rusher or, at the very least, a player who gets after the quarterback. Indeed, nothing sways a DPoY voter like players who sack the quarterback, as our Erick Trickel wrote last week.

The current odds continue to show favoritism, as the six ahead of Surtain in the odds are all pass rushers. Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt leads the way, followed by (in order) Kansas City's Chris Jones, San Francisco's Nick Bosa, Cincinnati's Trey Hendrickson, New York's Dexter Lawrence, and Houston's Will Anderson Jr. 

- Erick Trickel

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That was written before the news of Lawrence's season-ending injury, so removing him, all the defenders ahead of Surtain in the odds are sack artists. So, for Surtain to bridge the gap and become the second Bronco to ever be named Defensive Player of the Year, what has to happen?

Ball Production

Surtain has three interceptions this season. When Gilmore won it, he had six. But compared to some of the best seasons from Hall-of-Fame former Bronco Champ Bailey, six is a relative drop in the bucket.

Bailey had eight interceptions in his dominant 2005 season. He followed that up by picking off 10 passes in 2006. It wasn't enough to garner DPoY. Can you believe it?

Former Chicago linebacker Brian Urlacher got the DPoY nod in 2005, and former Miami edge rusher Jason Taylor took it home in 2006. Urlacher is one of the handful of non-sack artist DPoYs of the 21st century, joining the aforementioned Gilmore, Ray Lewis ('00/'03), Derrick Brooks ('02), Ed Reed ('04), Bob Sanders ('07), Charles Woodeson ('09), Troy Polamalu ('10), and Luke Kuechly ('13).

So, a defensive back can win Defensive Player of the Year. However, his ball production not only has to be off the charts, but he also has to make big plays in big moments on the biggest stages. Team success factors in greatly, too.

The Broncos have five games left to go. Detroit Lions safety Kirby Joseph leads the NFL with seven interceptions, so, at the very least, 'PS2' needs to average something like an interception per game to give himself the best possible chance at DPoY.

That's unlikely, considering how quarterbacks tend to avoid targeting Surtain. He continues to follow the best receivers in the NFL, allowing just 11 receptions and 112 yards on 145 routes, per NextGen Stats.

Even if Surtain did manage to pick off another five passes, it probably wouldn't be enough. It doesn't help that he missed, basically, two games with a concussion.

If eight and 10 interceptions couldn't put Champ over the top, it's hard to see Surtain becoming the second-ever Bronco to bring home the DPoY award this year when pass rushers like Watt, Anderson, Jones, and Hendrickson continue stacking sacks in the double digits.

Heck, even Denver's own Nik Bonitto is among the league leaders in sacks with 10. But he's not even in the DPoY convo.

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