Week 5 at Pittsburgh is More Meaningful for Broncos' Playoff Hopes than First Glance
Are the Denver Broncos good enough to make the playoffs? After four miserable sub-.500 seasons, it's a question on the minds of Broncos Country.
The Broncos are sitting in a much better position than in the recent past. In 2019, the team started out 0-4 and in 2020, 0-3. The odds of making the playoffs with starts like that are almost nil. Bucking that trend, the team got out to a fast start this year, winning the first three games.
That bodes well for the Broncos' postseason chances. However, the loss in Week 4 does add a bit of intrigue when calculating the Broncos' probability of making the playoffs.
I have calculated the playoff probability in several scenarios based on every NFL team’s record since 2005. What I found was that the next game at the Pittsburgh Steelers looms much larger than many might think.
3-0 & 3-1 Records
Starting off with the good news: teams that begin the season 3-0 have a probability of making the playoffs at .75. A probability of 1 means there is a 100% chance of making the postseason. With those odds, people should have little qualms about putting money down on the Broncos making the playoffs.
Since the loss in Week 4, those odds drop. When analyzing teams that start the season with a 3-1 record, the probability of the playoffs takes a bit of a tumble to .63. Still not bad, though.
Losing a Game After 3-0
Some bad news begins to take shape when I analyzed teams that started out 3-0, but then lost that fourth game. Teams in this scenario had a probability of reaching the playoffs of .58. That is quite a fall from .75 and not as good as teams that lost once at any time during the first four weeks.
This could imply that teams that start out 3-0 did so due to an easy schedule. The Broncos definitely fall into this category after facing the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets in the first three games only to fall to a much better team in the Baltimore Ravens.
Added Meaning of Week 5 at Pittsburgh
This does not mean the Broncos are doomed to miss the postseason or that their first three wins are fool's gold. What happens next is the key.
First off, teams that start out with a 4-1 record have a probability of making the postseason at .79. This bodes well, but it isn’t exactly the same scenario that the Broncos find themselves in because that loss could have come anytime during the first five weeks.
The Broncos are coming off their first loss after starting 3-0. A victory against the Steelers this week and the Broncos' probability of making the playoffs jumps to .73, nearly as good as that 3-0 start and somewhat less than teams that reach 4-1 in any combination.
Now, the Bad News
Teams that start the season at 3-2 have a probability of reaching the playoffs of .49. A 50/50 chance isn’t terrible, but it isn’t confidence-boosting.
When looking at the Broncos' specific scenario, it gets even worse. If the Broncos lose at Heinz Field, the probability of the postseason plummets to a measly .38. That is not a good bet.
Does this mean that the Broncos season hinges completely on the next game? No, but if the Broncos can go on the road and steal a victory, their hopes of an eventual playoff berth dramatically increases.
It would also be an indication that Denver's fast start was not a phony team feasting on bottom feeders. That would be a significant boost in confidence for fans and the team.
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