Broncos' Playoff Outlook Faded by The Ringer

The Denver Broncos are still in control of their playoff destiny.

Sep 8, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton watches pregame warmups against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Despite losing back-to-back weeks on the road and falling to 5-5 on the season, the Denver Broncos still control their playoff destiny in an AFC with very few middle-class teams. The Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills appear to be the clear cream of the crop in the conference, with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers, and Houston Texans as that next tier.

All six of these teams have exceedingly high probabilities to make the playoffs this season (all above 80% chance according to both NFL.com and the New York Times). The order of seeds is yet to be determined but it seems highly likely six of the seven teams in the AFC are close to settled entering Week 11. However, the seventh seed in the AFC is still very much up for grabs.

Currently, there are five teams that could still earn a playoff spot in the conference — the 4-6Indianapolis Colts, the 4-6 Cincinnati Bengals, the 3-6 Miami Dolphins, the 3-7 New York Jets, and the Broncos. For the most part, those that cover the league believe the seventh seed will likely come down to Denver and Cincinnati.

The topic of the AFC Playoff Picture and which team will be left out was recently discussed on The Ringer NFL Show with Sheil Kapadia, Steven Ruiz, and Diante Lee, recapping Week 10's action. Even though the Broncos have a game advantage over the Bengals currently, all three of the show's hosts agreed that the Broncos will be the odd team out.

Discussing just how incredible the Bengals have been on offense with Joe Burrow playing at an MVP level and Ja’Marr Chase arguably the most dynamic offensive playmaker in the NFL, it's possible they're just scratching the surface.

“There’s no way you can dismiss what we see from them when they’re playing at peak capacity. I feel pretty good about them being able to squeeze together just enough wins to sneak in, even if they are the seventh seed… I think that the more that I’ve watched them now, the more comfortable I am with them finding their way into the playoffs, even if it’s by a fingernail," Lee said.

As to why the Broncos are being dismissed as playoff-bound after going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in Arrowhead and losing on a rather improbable play, Ruiz distrusts the offense and a rookie quarterback.

“I don't think Sean Payton has done enough to prop (Nix) up as a quarterback. He had his best game of the season this past week against the Chiefs, and he made some strong throws, especially the one on the move to set up the game-winning field goal. But they do have to run a certain style of offense to get the best out of him. And we saw that like on the two drives, they scored touchdowns. They moved the ball well, but outside of that, they didn't move the ball effectively at all. I think they had three three-and-outs on the game. So, it's kind of a mixed bag even on his best day," Ruiz said.

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Ruiz would also go on to cast doubt on the staying power of the Broncos’ defense.

“I think the longer we get into the season, the easier it's going to be for offenses to kind of deal with that havoc-reaching defense. (Opposing offenses) are going to figure out ways to block up Vance Joseph. I think there's an expiration date on that style of defense. Not that they're going to be bad. They're just not going to be the best defense in the NFL over the second half, in my opinion," Ruiz said.

The Broncos did put up a rather disheartening performance against the Ravens two weeks ago, but bounced back with a phenomenal game against the Chiefs, completely stifling the running game and limiting explosives from Patrick Mahomes. The Broncos weren’t perfect, but they were good enough to beat Kansas City last Sunday.

Kapadia, also choosing Cincinnati to earn the final AFC Playoff Spot, would push back that Denver does have a formula that can win games.

“Bo Nix’s superpower, if you want to call it that, as a rookie has been not producing negative plays. Like, he doesn't get sacked a lot and his turnover-worthy play percentage is very low. So theoretically, if you want it to win with like a good defense and an offense that doesn't make a lot of mistakes and a coach who can scheme up some things here and there, like there is a formula to do that," Kapadia said.

The Broncos are unquestionably the more balanced team than the Bengals. While Denver does not possess a very good offense overall ranking 24th in EPA/Play and 24th in offensive DVOA compared to the Bengals ranking No. 5 in offensive EPA/Play and No. 9 in offensive DVOA, the Broncos' advantage on defense is even greater ranking No. 4 in EPA/Play and No. 6 in DVOA compared to Cincinnati at 28th in EPA/Play and 27th in DVOA. The Bengals are horrible at stopping the run.

Over the last four weeks, the Broncos offense has also been improving. Jumping up to 18th in EPA/Play and the growth from Nix rising from a statistical bottom-5 or bottom-10 quarterback in the league the first six weeks of the season to squarely in the top 20 across most advanced metrics.

As it stands, the Broncos' and Bengals' playoff odds seem intertwined, with NFL.com giving Denver playoff chances at 52%, currently, compared to the Bengals at 28%. However, the New York Times and The Athletic believe the Bengals have a 40% chance to make the playoffs compared to the Broncos at 33% (they also have the 3-6 Dolphins with a 30% chance so worth monitoring). The Week 17 matchup with Denver at Cincinnati could wind up a de facto play-in game for the final playoff seed in the AFC.

The Broncos now face a tough test on Sunday as the explosive offense with arguably the best set of offensive skill players in the league in the Atlanta Falcons come to town. The Broncos defense will once again have to slow down another top-10 offense.

The Broncos offense will need to continue to help Nix grow and develop. Denver still controls its playoff destiny, but it's likely going to be a tough battle to secure that final playoff spot and make the postseason for the first time in nearly a decade.

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