Broncos' Playoff Picture: Week 15 | Exactly What Needs to Happen
All the doom and gloom surrounding the Denver Broncos' 1-5 start has been silenced in the face of the buzz about this team being a playoff contender. The Broncos have a shot at an achievement only five NFL teams have ever done before — if they make the playoffs after such a horrid start.
The Broncos' easiest path to the playoffs is through one of the three Wildcard spots, but they still have a shot at winning the AFC West. Denver will need a lot of help to make the playoffs either way, but looking at the remaining schedules, making it as a Wildcard team is more likely than getting the help needed to win the division.
There's no margin for error at this point. The chances of the 7-6 Broncos making the playoffs at 10-7 are small, while a 9-8 record would make it all but impossible, so these scenarios I'm going to break down today require a 4-0 or 3-1 finish to the season.
As I get into exactly where the Broncos stand in the AFC playoff picture and analyze how they can qualify, keep in mind that eliminating all the variables is impossible. The NFL is unpredictable, which is part of why it remains king of the hill on the American pro sports landscape.
Parity reigns supreme.
Path 1: Divisional Champs
How great would it be if the Broncos end up not only ending a Kansas City Chiefs' win streak that had stretched to 16 games (which was achieved in Week 8), but also usurp the divisional throne they've been perched on since Peyton Manning hung up his cleats? A division crown this year is unlikely, but not impossible, because of the Chiefs' remaining schedule and tiebreakers.
Even if the Broncos go 4-0 to close out the season, they could win it the AFC West (which would guarantee a playoff berth) with the Chiefs only dropping one game. However, that would be dependent on which team the Chiefs lose to over this final four-game stretch.
The Chiefs play at the New England Patriots, vs. the Las Vegas Raiders, vs. the Cincinnati Bengals, and at the Los Angeles Chargers. If the Broncos can win out, they would need the Chiefs to drop a game against the Raiders or the Chargers.
In such a scenario, both Denver and Kansas City would end with an 11-6 record, with a 1-1 head-to-head record, and a 4-2 mark in the division. So the tiebreaker would come down to their record against common opponents, which, if the Broncos win out and the Chiefs drop one to the Chargers or Raiders, would give Denver the edge. The Broncos would have a 9-3 record against common opponents, while the Chiefs would sit at 8-4.
If the Broncos don't win out, winning the division becomes even more complicated but not impossible. This is also where things can get a bit confusing. If the Broncos drop one more game, no matter which team it's against, if the Chiefs lose to both the Raiders and Chargers, Denver comes out on top.
However, if the Broncos drop it to the Detroit Lions (who defeated KC earlier this year), the Chiefs have to drop two games, with one coming against the Raiders or Chargers. If the Broncos drop it against the Patriots, they'd need the Chiefs to lose to the Patriots and lose to one of either the Chargers or Raiders.
So the surest path for the Broncos is winning out and hoping the Raiders or Chargers can play spoiler for the Chiefs. However, both the Raiders and Chargers are lackluster, making it unlikely for the Broncos to win the division.
Path 2: Wild Card Scramble
Since the tiebreakers can be so complicated for the Wildcard, I won't be going into depth about them and which wins/losses matter more.
Five other teams are tied with the Broncos at 7-6. There's also one team that sits one game ahead of Denver as the current No. 5 seed with an 8-5 record, but they're still relevant as the Broncos hold the head-to-head tiebreakers over them. So, we will be examining those six teams.
The Broncos currently sit in the No. 9 spot out of seven total AFC playoff seeds, so they need at least two teams to drop to get into the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns
The Broncos hold the head-to-head tiebreaker here. All Denver needs is for the Browns to drop one game as long as Denver wins out. That would put the Broncos ahead of them.
If the Broncos drop one game, they'd need the Browns to drop two. If they end up with the same record, Denver will always be above Cleveland, as the head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker.
The Browns play the Chicago Bears, at the Houston Texans, vs. the New York Jets, and at Cincinnati. Cleveland can drop any of those games and help the Broncos. However, due to other teams in the race, dropping a game against the Bears or the Jets (or both if Denver drops a game) would do the Broncos the most good.
Pittsburgh Steelers
There is nothing easy in the NFL, but the Steelers dropping the game or two needed for the Broncos is the 'easiest' route. The Steelers have the most challenging schedule remaining of the teams Denver is in the race with.
First, Pittsburgh is on the road against the Indianapolis Colts, home against the Bengals, and then on the road back-to-back weeks against the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens to end the season.
Those first two games are critical for the Broncos as both the Colts and Bengals are in the race with the Broncos. To maximize things for the Broncos, you want the Steelers to win both of those games and to drop their final two games.
That would help push the Colts and Bengals down in the race while still giving the Steelers the needed losses to get the Broncos ahead of them. Plus, having the Steelers lose both of their final games would help cover the Broncos if they go 3-1.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts end their season with two critical games. Again, the Colts have their matchup at home against the Steelers before they go on the road to face the Atlanta Falcons and back home for the final two games against the Raiders and Texans.
I'm approaching these games for the maximal outcome for the Broncos, meaning getting them to the No. 5 seed, as that provides some margin for error based on outcomes for Denver to still land the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. Aim big, miss small.
Having the Colts lose to the Steelers is the best outcome, but if Indy wins that game, it must drop its final game against the Texans. However, the best result is a Steelers win, and then the Colts beat the Texans in their season finale. Indy's other two games can be losses and help the Broncos even more.
Houston Texans
The Texans remaining schedule starts on the road at the Tennessee Titans, vs. the Browns, vs. the Titans, and at the Colts. Remember, the Browns and Colts games are vital. However, those Titans games are important for Houston's own division and can create a massive shift for the Wildcard spot.
Even though the Broncos only need one loss from the Browns, Broncos fans should be rooting for the Browns to beat the Texans. Then, if the Broncos win out, they're in a great spot to make the playoffs. If the Broncos don't win out, the Colts winning the season finale would make up for it.
Cincinnati Bengals & Buffalo Bills
The Broncos currently sit above both of these teams in the playoff race. As long as the Broncos can win out, they'll remain above both of these teams.
Denver owns the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bills, and the Bengals can't take the divisional games tiebreaker. So if these two win out along with the Broncos, Denver would be in an excellent spot to make the playoffs.
With the Bengals having games against the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns, beating Pittsburgh and Cleveland would be enough to get Denver in. So Broncos fans should also be Bengals fans to close out this season.
The Bills' remaining schedule doesn't factor in with other teams, as they have the Dallas Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, and Miami Dolphins. However, that could put the Bills in the running with the Dolphins for the division, as Miami has a demanding schedule ahead of them.
If the Bills can somehow take the AFC East, it would push the Broncos down in the playoff seeding, but they would still make it. If the Broncos drop a game, they would need both the Bengals and Bills to drop a game.
Bottom Line
With four weeks left, there is a lot of football left to be played and many moving parts. However, the Broncos are in an excellent position to make the playoffs.
The Broncos do need help, but the importance of that help diminishes if they don't win out and remain in such a good position.
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