Broncos' Playoff Push: New Metric Could Be the Most Reliable Predictor

The signs are pointing to a Denver Broncos playoff return, but one advanced metric could be the most reliable predictor to lean on.

Oct 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) and quarterback Bo Nix (10) before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are on the cusp of their first winning season and playoff berth since Hall-of-Fame quarterback Peyton Manning hung up his cleats. The Broncos currently sit in the No. 7 seed with a two-game lead on the AFC teams still in the hunt.

The playoff drought ends this season because the Broncos are positive in a metric with an 80% success rate of predicting playoff teams since 2014.

Yards Per Play

Over the past decade, when a team’s offense has a yards-per-play metric greater than 0.30 than its defense is relinquishing, it almost always makes the playoffs. This means that both sides of the ball have to complement each other. If an offense is great, then the defense only has to be good enough. And if the offense is mediocre, the defense has to be incredible (see the 2015 Broncos).

With five games left in the season, the Broncos are in prime position to make the playoffs. They're positive in the yards-per-play differential by 0.34, and their offense has improved dramatically since early in the season.

The teams in the hunt — Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, and Indianapolis Colts — are all well below this mark, with the Colts being negative in this metric. The Broncos would have to have a significant meltdown to not get at least the No. 7 seed this season.

There have been teams that made the playoffs without hitting this magic mark, but it's a very small percentage. 0.30 is the measuring stick. There are 16 teams that did not make the playoffs when they did hit the mark.

In nearly every instance, when it didn’t hold true, it was due to a negative turnover margin. 10 of them had a negative turnover margin, and in most cases, those margins were highly negative. Regardless of how the offense and defense performed in terms of yards, the turnovers made a significant impact on these teams' ultimate success. 

Of the few that hit the mark and had a positive turnover margin, three of the teams had a winning record and only narrowly missed the postseason. This positive margin in yards per play almost always gets a team to the postseason or narrowly misses.

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Turnover Differential

The Broncos currently have a positive turnover margin at +2. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has improved dramatically at taking care of the ball since early in the season. In addition, the Broncos haven't turned the ball over in the past three weeks. This bodes well. 

Furthermore, the Broncos are chasing the Los Angeles Chargers for the No. 6 seed and are only a half-game behind. Even though the Chargers are poised for a playoff berth, they're not hitting that +0.30 mark.

This could indicate that they're vulnerable to being overtaken, especially if the Broncos offense continues to make the big strides they have over the second half of the season. The Broncos' yards per play over the last six games is 0.80, or nearly a full yard greater than the first six.

The Takeaway

The numbers here may seem small, but when diagnosed at a per-play level, a small move can have a massive impact on the team’s success. The Broncos have gotten substantially better as the year has progressed.

This is the year that the Broncos finally return to the playoffs.

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