Broncos Predicted to Win Just Five Games by SI

A five-win season would be a first for a Sean Payton-led team.

Aug 11, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) and quarterback Bo Nix (10) stand on the field during warm ups before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Denver Broncos fans feel like they're taking crazy pills. Despite the optimism inside the Broncos, and throughout the greater Rocky Mountain region, the national perspective continues to be quite negative.

The latest dose of national media skepticism comes via Sports Illustrated's Conor Orr, who's predicting that Year 1 of the Sean Payton-Bo Nix ticket finishes with just five wins.

"I’m being similarly unfair to Bo Nix, just like I was C.J. Stroud last year when I predicted the Texans would win five games. Nix looked excellent in his second preseason start, after an expectedly frantic debut. Still, I have to wonder whether this Broncos team is good enough to support him through a similarly shocking season. Denver opens the season against Seattle, a game in which I’d normally give the nod to Sean Payton. However, Mike Macdonald’s defense is going to pose some early problems for Nix, especially because we don’t know how it will look now that the system has taken on an entirely different set of personnel. The same can be said for an offense led by OC Ryan Grubb. Denver is simply not going to know what is coming. Vance Joseph, the Broncos’ defensive coordinator, and Payton have decades of sample size. At all points, Denver’s schedule is ruthless and doesn’t allow for much momentum. To begin the season against what you may consider the “lesser” teams on the schedule, they’re still taking three road trips in four weeks. To end the season? Herbert. Burrow. Mahomes (or, maybe by then, a Mahomes backup if the Chiefs are resting starters)," Orr wrote.

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Orr is the only national writer I've read who portrayed Nix's NFL debut in Indianapolis as anything close to being "frantic." I would concur to a point — if Orr had written that Nix's first possession was "frantic." It was, but the Broncos still got points on it.

In fact, the Broncos got points on all but one of Nix's seven possessions. Six possessions totaled 30 points — an exciting harbinger for the future of the Broncos offense if I've ever seen one.

Yeah, yeah, it was the preseason. That goes without saying. But with NFL teams getting 10 to 12 possessions per game, that portends well for a Nix-led offense that got 30 on seven drives in the preseason.

The Broncos don't have an easy schedule. There are definitely some tough matchups, but the Broncos' strength of schedule is .495, which ranks as the 20th-hardest.

Despite how it looks on the surface, Denver's schedule currently shapes up as a middle-of-the-road level of competition, based on how opponents finished last year, which should come as a welcome reprieve after being dealt top-5 toughest strength-of-schedules in recent years.

Keep in mind that as a head coach, Payton has never finished with less than seven wins in a season, and all but one campaign came when the NFL regular season was 16, not 17, games. Still, the oddsmakers have set Denver's over/under at 5.5 wins.

Payton relishes the relative disrespect. Let 'em sleep, as far as he's concerned.

“I love being the underdog," Payton recently told Jeff Duncan. "The next time I only win six games in a season will be the first.”

And yet, Orr predicts a five-win finish for Payton's Broncos. Hey, everyone's got an opinion and if nothing else, this one reflects the over-arching perception of the national press dating back to January. At least it's consistent.

Closer to Denver, we know that Payton improved Denver's win total in Year 1 by three victories, finishing with an 8-9 record. That came in the face of an immense 1-5 hole the Broncos dug for themselves early on and despite the clunky fit with Russell Wilson at quarterback.

Payton turned the ship around, leading the Broncos to a five-game winning streak and forcing their way back into competitive relevance in December. That included a win over the Kansas City Chiefs, which no Broncos head coach had been able to do since Gary Kubiak in 2015. Payton snapped Kansas City's 16-game winning streak over the Broncos.

The Broncos reset at quarterback with a rookie that a majority of national draft pundits had rated as a Day 2 prospect. The Broncos drafted Nix No. 12 overall. Oh, the hand-wringing.

The Nix skepticism will continue, and that's okay. The only way for the Broncos and their rookie starter to dispel it is by production on the field and wins in the standings.

But you'd think that by now, Payton would have earned a little more benefit of the doubt than five-win predictions.

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