Broncos Predicted to Surpass Vegas Win Total by NFL.com Computer Model

We can't wait for the games to arrive so the Denver Broncos guessing games can cease.

Aug 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton during the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

How good an NFL team is in any given season needs to be settled on the field. While many folks around the league look at the Denver Broncos’ current roster and predict another underwhelming record in the Mile High City, games are not settled by how glamorous a squad’s depth chart looks.

Football games are not won on paper. But what about on the computer?

Games need to be settled on the gridiron, yes, but it's interesting to see how different analytical models attempt to capture a team and quantify how it will perform. The Broncos are likely one of the more difficult teams to formulate this season, given what an unknown rookie quarterback Bo Nix will be as he opens up Week 1 in Seattle.

With the Broncos possessing so many questions, it would be hard to truly capture what the team will be until a sample size of actual games and meaningful data is accumulated. Still, NFL Network's analytics expert Cynthia Frelund attempted to do just that.  

In a simulation with one million runs of every single game, how do the Broncos stack up? Is this a team that can shock the NFL at large and contend in the AFC? Or are the Broncos destined to finish close to the Vegas win total of 5.5 wins? According to the model, expect Denver to win 6.4 games this season.

"Rookie Bo Nix won the Broncos' QB competition in camp and projects to throw for at least 3,015 yards -- just over 177 yards per game -- in 59 percent of my season simulations. 

"Also, the Denver defense ranked 30th against the run last year, but the unit forecasts to rebound to around average (16th) in this area in 2024," Frelund wrote.

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With a ceiling of 9.2 wins and a floor of 5.0 wins, Frelund’s model does not love the Broncos in 2024, but it obviously does love taking the over on Vegas’ win total for team this season. With a majority of the bettors also taking the Broncos over 5.5 wins, this is not a complete surprise.

However, the models do fail to account for one important factor: the overall variability in outcomes of the quarterback and just how much Nix emerging as a franchise quarterback could change the weight of the formula.

Last year, Frelund’s article had the Houston Texans win total at 5.9 wins with a ceiling of 8.1 wins and a floor of 5.0. Obviously, no one knew C.J. Stroud would emerge as a gunslinging superstar quarterback after just one year in the league especially for the defunct Houston franchise. The Texans would go on to win the AFC South with 10 wins, and Stroud looks to place his team on the AFC map for the foreseeable future.

It's completely unfair to expect Nix to enter 2024 and play like Stroud, who had one of the all-time great rookie quarterback seasons on a scale of Andrew Luck and Cam Newton. However, it would be unreasonable to completely dismiss the chance the Nix could quickly emerge as a competent quarterback and a perfect fit for what Payton wants to do and elevate the Broncos offense and team.

The models are fun to look at and ponder probabilities of what may come in the upcoming NFL season, but they're nothing more than hypotheticals once the whistle blows and the games are truly underway. Thankfully for the Broncos, the results of each football contest will be determined on the field as opposed to a computer simulation.

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