Predicting Broncos' RB Rotation Based on Sean Payton's Track Record

Will it be a rotation or a clear No. 1 running back in the Denver Broncos' stable?

May 23, 2024; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos running back Blake Watson (43) and running back Tyler Badie (36) and running back Audric Estime (37) and running back Javonte Williams (33) look on as full back Michael Burton (20) runs a drill during organized team activities at Centura Health Training Center. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the years, Sean Payton has proven how important running backs are for his offense. There have been concerns about the Denver Broncos running back room, but based on the early returns from training camp, the room has looked quite good, even with two players battling for one spot. 

The Broncos are expected to carry four running backs: Audric Estimé, Jaleel McLaughlin, and two of Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Blake Watson, and Tyler Badie. Of those final four, the wide belief is it'll be Williams and Watson, though the latter has been dealing with an injury, opening the door for Perine.

Watson recently returned to the practice field. Perine is the most expensive running back in the room, which affects how this plays out. The rumor has been that there's one spot open between Williams and Perine, but a lot still needs to be figured out. 

Whoever makes it, the question will be, what will the rotation look like? Digging into Sean Payton's track record, even if limited to his time as a head coach for the New Orleans Saints, you get an apparent picture of the rotation for the top four backs while still leaving room for a fullback, as Michael Burton is expected to make the Broncos' roster.

Throughout his career, Payton has utilized a rotation, mainly a three-person rotation, with a fourth running back picking up a couple of touches per game, at most, barring an injury. The top running back for Payton has averaged 241 touches in a season, though that is inflated from his final six years with the Saints, where he had a clear top back.

Taking those years out, Payton's top back averaged 213 touches on the season. Why does it matter? Well, the Broncos don’t have a clear top back like Payton had in Alvin Kamara, so the years where he utilized three backs more consistently will likely be closer to what we see from the Broncos this next season. 

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In 2023, the Broncos bet on Williams to be that, as he had 275 total touches. However, after watching him falter to close out the season, the addition of Estimé and growth from McLaughlin will cut into that touch count. Even with Williams at a lighter weight, the expectation should be seeing him lose 60 touches and having it split among the other backs. 

Meanwhile, McLaughlin and Perine had 112 and 109 touches last year, respectively. Payton's No. 2 back averaged 160 touches during his time with the Saints. Most of those estimated 60 touches taken from Williams will go to that position. The question is, which running back will it be? 

The third back for Payton has averaged 80 touches, which is hurt by the last six years as much as the top back average was helped. Again, the Broncos don’t have a clear top back, not in terms of the team depth chart but the whole NFL. This will likely lead to more of a trio rotation with leftovers for a fourth back, who has averaged 34 touches for Payton historically.

So, if we had to put names and roles to which position they will be, Williams is likely to be the top back, followed by Estimé, McLaughlin, and Watson — if Perine doesn’t make it. If Perine does stick around, then swap him with Watson and balance out the touches a little more. 

As for their roles on the field, look for Williams to be the primary back, getting the majority of carries on first and second down. In passing downs, look for McLaughlin or Perine (again, if he makes it), while Estimé will be used primarily on goal-line and short-yardage situations. If it's Watson over Perine, the rookie will get maybe two touches per game to give a breather to the other backs. 

While expectations are one thing, it will be fun to watch how this all plays out and see whether Payton changes up his historic approach simply to add more curveballs for opposing defenses. 

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