Predicting Stat Line of Broncos' Rookie Class in 2024

The Denver Broncos are relying on their rookie class to turn the ship around.

Aug 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix warms up in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

There is a lot of hope surrounding the Denver Broncos' 2024 draft class and optimism in finally seeing this team turn things around. The Broncos haven't had a winning season since 2016, after posting just nine losing seasons between 1970 and that year.

The past seven sub-.500 seasons almost matched the total number of losing campaigns the franchise had in nearly 50 years. The Broncos fan base needed that hope that the 2024 draft class is bringing, and it all starts with newly named starting quarterback Bo Nix. 

With all this hope, what should we expect for the rookies' stat lines? Barring injuries, not all rookies will see the field or see it a lot, so let’s predict the Broncos' 2024 draft class stats for this coming season.

These predictions are made with the expectation that the rookies will stay healthy and available while playing in their current expected roles, respectively. 

Bo Nix | QB

Nix is expected to start every game at quarterback, so these predictions are for a 17-game season. There have been some outstanding rookie seasons over the past couple of decades, and I don't predict Nix to have one that matches those, but I still envision him producing one of the better first-year seasons for a quarterback in history. 

Sean Payton’s offense primarily caters to what Nix does best. The rookie will post a 68% completion percentage and throw for over 200 yards per game.

While the total yardage isn’t pinned down with a specific number, over 200 yards per game would put him north of 3,400 yards passing for the season. The Broncos will likely have a run-first offense, but Nix will still have plenty of opportunities to throw it. Nix adds 20 passing touchdowns to 12 interceptions, putting him a little under the 2:1 ratio you would like to see. 

As a rusher, Nix adds three touchdowns and around 200 yards. He does well to keep himself protected and avoids taking sacks.

In college, Nix averaged 2.44 seconds to throw, and in the NFL, that increases to around 2.6 seconds, with his preseason average being 2.67 seconds. That time would be the ninth-fastest for the 2023 season, and those nine quarterbacks were sacked an average of 29 times.

This season, Nix goes down a bit more often, with 31 sacks, which would still be a significant improvement from the 52 sacks the Broncos' QBs gave up last season. 

What happens next on the Broncos beat? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Jonah Elliss | OLB

Elliss is set to be a part-time player as the fourth man on the edge rusher rotation. Last year, the Broncos' No. 4 edge rusher was Randy Gregory, who was traded early in the season. It's safe to say that Elliss will be a significant upgrade over the seven pressures and one sack Gregory picked up. 

With about 200-300 snaps as a pass rusher on the season, Elliss finishes with 17-23 pressures and four sacks. He adds about 20 total tackles, with a handful of stops.

While this may seem slight, again, Elliss is the fourth man in the rotation behind Baron Browning, Jonathon Cooper, and Nik Bonitto, all of whom will take up most of the pass-rush snaps from the position. Again, these predictions are based on everyone staying healthy, as you can’t foresee injuries. 

Troy Franklin | WR

There seems to be a minimal role for Franklin, who has had a disappointing training camp and preseason. With few opportunities, he ends with 10-15 catches for 125-175 yards and maybe one touchdown.

It's hard to see Franklin having much of an impact in the red zone, making the touchdown uncertain, and it would likely have to come from a big play. 

Kris Abrams-Draine | CB

While Abrams-Draine has come along nicely as camp and preseason progressed, he's stuck lower on the depth chart as the fifth or sixth corner. He should have a role on special teams, but his expected role on defense is so minimal that it is hard to develop a full-stat prediction.

He'll contribute to three takeaways, two on special teams, with one interception. 

Audric Estime | RB

Estime will be the Broncos' short-yardage back and primary blocker. His yards per carry will likely be lower than you want, under 4.0 yards.

Ultimately, Estime has 50-60 carries for 190-228 yards and three touchdowns. He adds 20-30 catches for 80-110 yards and maybe one touchdown. 

Devaughn Vele | WR

There is a chance for Vele to have a decent role as a rookie, as he has had an outstanding camp and did well in one preseason game. A recent injury doesn’t seem to hinder him, as he is already back at practice.

Vele finishes the season with 28-38 catches for 300-400 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

Nick Gargiulo | IOL

The expectation for Gargiulo currently makes him doubtful of even making the 53-man roster. He has no stat predictions, as injuries are also not being factored in. 

---

Follow Mile High Huddle on X and Facebook and subscribe on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!