Broncos Roster Prediction: Revealing Each QB's Odds of Making it

Which quarterbacks have a path to the Denver Broncos' final roster?

Every NFL team has those players that are guaranteed to make the roster. They're the easiest ones to project onto the 53-man roster, and every team has them, even one that went 5-12 the year before, like the Denver Broncos. 

Examining the Broncos' 2023 roster, I'll start with quarterback, which was one of the easier positions to sort. Before jumping into it, this is how the players are split up. 

As I break down each position, players will be placed into three different tiers that reflect their chances of making the roster. The top guys are easy to project to the roster; all have a 70% or higher chance of making it. Some of these guys sitting at 100%, while others may be closer to 70% due to the expense of their contract or a potential trade. 

The next group is 41-69%, and these players have a good shot at making the roster, but they have some factors going against them. They may be in a tight position group with much competition, remnants of a previous coaching regime, injury-prone, or a combination of factors. 

The final group is 0-40%, aka, the training camp bodies. Maybe they stand out as a gem and make the roster, but they're the long shots. There are multiple reasons they can find themselves as the long shot. 

With that said, let's examine each player's odds (via percentage) of making the Broncos' 53-man roster, starting with the quarterbacks. 

Tier 1: 70-100%

Russell Wilson | Jarrett Stidham

Wilson's at the 100% mark to make the roster. His contract is too expensive to part ways, and after what the Broncos gave up to acquire him, they aren't moving on until after this season. 

Stidham is the primary backup and was Sean Payton's choice. While Stidham may not be at the 100% mark, he isn't far from it. When you're the head coach's hand-picked quarterback, it bodes well for sticking on the roster. 

There is a lot of pressure on Wilson's shoulders as he has to show significant improvement during this season. If he doesn't make those improvements, the Broncos will have a tough decision to make next offseason: either move on from him or commit to him for an additional two years. That puts a lot of pressure on his plate. 

As for Stidham, he has a chance to start a few games if Wilson struggles this season. He has those attributes that Payton likes to work with, so if Wilson struggles, the coach may decide to give Stidham some auditioning time. 

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Tier 2: 40-69%

None

None of the four quarterbacks on the roster find themselves in this tier. Wilson and Stidham are the two highest chances to make the roster. 

Tier 3: 0-39%

Jarrett Guarantano | Ben DiNucci

Either player could make the roster, but part of what has them in the bottom tier is how teams prefer to keep fewer quarterbacks. Payton could opt to keep three quarterbacks on the roster, which puts these two on the higher end of this tier. 

There is also the fact that if Payton decides to keep three quarterbacks, they'd have to compete for that third spot. Neither one has a leg up on the other to boost themselves up a tier. There might be a slight advantage with DiNucci, who has taken some snaps in the NFL and was signed by Payton, but it isn't enough to boost his odds. 

The Takeaway

The Broncos have their top two quarterbacks in Wilson and Stidham. As a result, they would take up two of the 53 spots on the roster. 

DiNucci has only a slight advantage over Guarantano, and that could be enough when it comes down to the time to make the decision. 

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