Broncos' Run Game Status Defines Playoff Outlook

The Denver Broncos have a commitment issue; Sean Payton won't stick with the run.

Dec 19, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Denver Broncos running back Audric Estime (23) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

For years, the NFL mantra has been that teams must be able to run the ball to win in December and the playoffs. Denver Broncos starting tight end Adam Trautman said as much in recent interview, and he's only the latest.

It isn’t just an old wive’s tale nor has it gone by the wayside since the NFL has become a passing league. The analytics prove that teams who commit to the run typically win games in the postseason.

That means the Broncos have to figure out their rushing attack in the final two games of the season. Unfortunately, that's unlikely at this point.

It's no secret that the Broncos offense has struggled mightily trying to run the ball. In fact, they haven't had a 100-yard rusher since Latavius Murray in the 2022 season.

The magic elixir that can fix what ails them still eludes the Broncos. If they can’t find it, they're likely to get bounced in the Wildcard Round.

Here are the numbers to back up the mantra. Since 2014, teams who established the run in the first half and were somewhat effective at running the ball typically win playoff games.

The winning team averaged more than 12 carries (minus kneel-downs and QB scrambles) in the first half. Also, in that half, these teams gained 4.6 yards per carry. The losing teams averaged under 11 carries in the first half and gained 3.9 yards per clip.

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Furthermore, teams that had at least 15 carries in the first half won 61% of the time. Those teams that ran 10 times or less lost 57% of the time.

Why is this important? Because the Broncos have rushed 10 times or less in nine games and have only eclipsed the 15-carry mark once in the first half this season. 

To make matters worse, the Broncos have averaged 4.1 yards per carry from Week 1 through Week 14 and only past the 4.6 mark in five games over that span. To say the least, the Broncos have had a difficult time establishing the running game.

The Broncos have had both an anemic run game and a lack of commitment to establishing it. Sean Payton writing 'Run it!!' in Sharpie on his play-sheet in Thursday night's loss symbolizes how the Broncos have lost sight of the ground game at times.

Payton has been reluctant to stick with the run even when it is working. For example, take the Thursday night loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos were running at will on their first two drives, averaging over six yards per carry.

The offense decided against running the ball the rest of the half, which led to Chargers points on a free kick, the turning of the tide, and ultimately, a loss in a playoff-clinching opportunity. Payton’s lack of devotion or attention to the running game spells doom for the team.

The fact of the matter is, if the Broncos cannot commit to running the ball, they aren't going to win in the playoffs. Granted, getting to the playoffs is a massive improvement over what has happened since 2015 but the goal is to win and not just be satisfied with appearing in the postseason.

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