Broncos at Saints: 5 Predictions

It's crystal ball time for the Denver Broncos.

Oct 13, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler (18) hands off to running back Alvin Kamara (41) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Caesars Superdome. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos need to win this one against the New Orleans Saints. A lot is riding on it, and with the trade deadline coming up, it could be a turning point for the Broncos this season.

It's gameday, which means it's time to be bold. These predictions are of such a variety.

Broncos Get Rolling on the Ground 

The Saints allow 133.7 rushing yards per game, which is the 13th-most in the NFL, but in their last three games, that average has been almost 200 yards at a flat 196 yards per game. The Saints allowed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run for 277 yards in their last outing. 

Meanwhile, the Broncos have averaged 107.3 rushing yards per game, with over 100 yards in each of their last four games. Denver's season-high was 136 against the Buccaneers.

With the inconsistencies in their passing offense, the Broncos must rely on their running game, especially on a short week. That can take pressure off the passing game and grind out a win, especially if the Broncos' defense can hold up. 

Prediction: Broncos rush for over 170 yards. 

Nix Gets the Time

The Broncos need to be consistent with protecting the quarterback. They're coming off a game allowing a 48.8% pressure rate.

The Broncos had two other games over 30%, one at 23.1%, and two others under 20%. The three highest were the first two weeks and the last game, with the bottom three being Weeks 3-5. 

The Saints have struggled to generate pressure in two of their last three games. Their pressure rates were 25% and 22.5%, respectively.

New Orleans' season high came in week one against the Carolina Panthers, with a 35.9% pressure rate. The Saints have two legit pass rushers, one of them Chase Young, which is why he and Garett Bolles are a key matchup. 

Prediction: The Broncos keep the Saints pass-rush rate under 25%. 

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Broncos Rattle Rattler

The Saints have struggled to protect the quarterback, and the inexperienced Spencer Rattler has started playing into the Broncos' defense, even without Patrick Surtain II. With a beat-up offensive line, the Saints continue to struggle to protect the quarterback. 

In Rattler's one start, he was pressured 33.3% of the time. The Broncos have only been held under that mark once this season, and that was a bad-weather game against the New York Jets.

The Broncos had four over a 40% pressure rate for the rest of the games. The ability to generate pressure from Rattler leads to takeaways for the defense. 

Prediction: Broncos sack Rattler six times with two takeaways. 

Kamara Bucks the Broncos 

In an attempt to ease the pressure on Rattler, it won’t be surprising to see the Saints lean heavily on Alvin Kamara. Kamara has the seventh most rushing yards this season, but he hasn’t been the normal, efficient runner he has in the past. He has a negative EPA/rush, picking up fewer yards than expected, and while a 4.1 yards per carry is fine, it is the third lowest in his career. 

The type of back he is can lead to success against the Broncos defense. The Broncos have struggled with these types of backs, and Kamara can also create mismatches as a receiver out of the backfield. As a result, he has a good day running and receiving, leading the Saints in yards from scrimmage.  

Prediction: Kamara goes for over 150 yards from scrimmage. 

End Zone Doesn’t Get Dirty

This one is simple. Both teams struggle to move the ball offensively, leading to a low-scoring defensive battle that comes down to field goals.

Each team finds the end zone once, but thanks to the kickers, the rest of the scoring is from range. 

Prediction: Each team scores a single touchdown. 

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