Broncos Skyrocket into Elite Analytics Ranking

The Denver Broncos are rising.

Nov 17, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Members of the Denver Broncos defensive squad celebrate a turnover in the second half against the Atlanta Falcons at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are coming off what is arguably their most dominant performance of the season. The Broncos beat the Atlanta Falcons in every phase of the game.

While it's true that the Falcons had several players on defense out with injuries and Kirk Cousins wasn't 100% with injuries to his throwing shoulder, the Broncos still performed at a high level. That's what you want to see out of a Broncos team chasing a playoff berth.

And it turns out the Broncos' performance was so strong that it vaulted them into the top 10 of DVOA, the advanced analytic developed by Aaron Schatz.

The Broncos jumped from 15th in overall DVOA with 14%, just behind AFC West rival, the Los Angeles Chargers, at 14.2%. The Broncos are ranked 20th in offense (-4.9%), fourth in defense (-15.2% — on defense, DVOA is better when it's negative), and sixth in special teams (3.7%).

In other words, the Broncos are now positioning themselves among the better teams in the NFL. While they still have a lot of work ahead of them to ensure they make the playoffs, they're looking more like a worthy playoff contender.

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Much of the improvement can be attributed to the offense, which has been more productive in recent weeks, even in the back-to-back losses against the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos defense didn't have a good day against the Ravens but has been very good otherwise, and although that blocked kick in the final seconds of the Chiefs game hurt, the special teams performance has been very good overall.

The Broncos still have a lot of work to do to close the gap with the top contenders in the NFL. The Detroit Lions are No. 1 in DVOA at 49.8% and the Ravens are second at 35.7%. The Lions rank second in offense (21.1%), second in defense (-20.7%), and first in special teams (8%), while the Ravens get their ranking mostly from the offense (first at 34.8%).

What's important, though, is that the Broncos go out and win the games they are supposed to win. Two such games are coming before the bye week: this week's game at the Las Vegas Raiders and the following week's home game against the Cleveland Browns.

The Raiders and Browns are among the worst teams in the NFL, ranked 29th and 32nd in overall DVOA. The Raiders lack talent throughout the roster (save for Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby) and the Browns have been hit by injuries and plagued by bad QB play (though Jameis Winston has been a better option than Deshaun Watson).

Getting a pair of wins before the bye will be important in the Broncos' playoff push and in keeping them in or near the top 10 of any rankings. In particular, the Broncos should see continued quality play from the offense because both the Raiders and Browns are in the bottom third in the NFL for overall defensive play.

For now, Broncos fans can be happy that the team has improved and is getting more attention from analysts. Now we'll find out whether the Broncos can keep it up and win the games they are supposed to win.

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