Key Matchups Broncos can't Afford to Lose vs. Texans

How do the Denver Broncos match up with the Houston Texans?

The time has come for the Denver Broncos to move on from their bad loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night as the team busily prepares for the Houston Texans. The Texans are coming off a Week 1 tie with the Indianapolis Colts. 

Broncos-Texans is game featuring some interesting matchups. Let's dive into the matchups that are likely to dictate the outcome of Week 2 at Empower Field at Mile High. 

Takeaways from Texans-Colts

Studying the Texans in their season opener, their offense revolved around a quick passing game. Houston's offensive line did well in the run game, but the pass protection was up and down. 

The Texans are limited by their quarterback's capabilities, which showed up when the Colts started making their comeback last week. While the Texans' defense did alright, what stopped the Colts the most was their own mistakes. Indy saw multiple botched snaps, a dropped touchdown, and missed calls on the O-line. 

The Texans are a well-coached team helmed by Lovie Smith and seem primed to be overachievers this season. They're a young bunch that could see many teams overlook them. 

So how do the Broncos match up?

Russell Wilson vs. Texans Defense

Matt Ryan and the Colts shot themselves in the foot a lot on offense. That doesn't mean the Texans didn't have their wins, but the Colts picked up 33 first downs, 20 of them through the air. However, Indy turned the ball over twice and struggled on third down. 

If Wilson and company don't shoot themselves in the foot, they should have a good day. However, that was the belief heading into the Seahawks game. 

Denver needs Wilson to make good reads, protect the ball, and use what mobility he has to buy time when needed. That doesn't mean the panic scrambles that Wilson has had during his whole career, which we saw against Seattle. 

The Texans run Smith's Tampa 2 defense. Wilson has faced Smith-led defenses twice, going a combined 40-of-65 for 553 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions, and was sacked twice. 

With a young defense, the edge goes to Denver. However, throughout his career, Wilson has done well against this type of defense. 

Advantage: Denver. 

Broncos' Pass Protection vs. Texans' Pass Rushers

The Broncos' pass pro wasn't perfect, but they wern't bad by any means. There were a few plays where Wilson needlessly panicked over the pressure. He brought pressure on himself as 27.5% of the pressure he felt on his dropbacks were his own fault, the third-highest in the NFL week 1. Meanwhile, the Broncos' O-line was responsible for 63.6% of the pressures. 

Denver's pass protection had some rough moments, but the Broncos were 10th in pass blocking efficiency and tied for 11th-fewest pressures in Week 1. Denver held its own against a coordinated attack to get Wilson to roll out to his left. That really put pressure on RT Cam Fleming, who limited Seattle to three pressures. 

Russ outside the tackle box to this left (since 2021), per NGS

🔹 12/29, 177 yards, 2 INT
🔹 9 sacks
🔹 -31.7 passing EPA https://t.co/ReooWB6bBW

— Keegan Abdoo (@KeeganAbdoo) September 13, 2022

Houston's Jerry Hughes will be tough, as he picked up four pressures (two sacks) in Week 1, but the rest of the Texans' pass rushers weren't super impactful on the game. As a result, Houston will likely follow the Seahawks' plan to force Wilson to roll out left. The Broncos' pass protectors need to do a better job of not allowing that. 

Hughes did not participate in the Texans' Wednesday practice, for what it's worth. 

Advantage: Denver.

Broncos' Rushing Game vs. Texans' Run Defense

The Colts had a lot of success rushing the football, picking up over 170 yards on the ground. The Colts attacked the right B and C gap with 23 runs in that direction, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. What is so noticeable is that it wasn't behind their highest-paid guard Quenton Nelson. 

When the Colts did rush to the left side, they average 6.2 yards per carry. Indy exploited a smaller Houston D-line upfront. That's something the Broncos need to replicate. Despite their issues on offense and the two fumbles, the Broncos did a good job running the ball for the most part. 

When attacking the right side of the Seahawks' defense, Denver averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 4.4 when attacking the left side. They did well attacking an area where the Texans are weak. This also happened against a tougher Seahawks D-line against the run. Seattle's Al Woods and Poona Ford are two of the best-run defenders in the NFL. 

Maliek Collins, who did not participate in the Texans' Wednesday practice, and Roy Lopez are struggling run defenders. It will be a major disappointment if the Broncos don't do well upfront in the run game. 

Advantage: Denver

Broncos' Passing Game vs. Texans' Coverage

Matt Ryan went 32-of-50 for 351 yards against the Texans. Houston has openings to exploit. The issue is that the Colts faltered when it came time to capitalize. Sound familiar? 

The Broncos cannot afford to do that for the second week in a row. They have a favorable matchup with their tight ends against Texans LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, who allowed 13 catches for 116 yards in coverage. 

Houston's rookie CB Derek Stingley, while having a couple of bright spots, allowed over 86 yards receiving on six catches off nine targets. Two of those misses were dropped, including one for a touchdown. 

The Texans have decent depth in the secondary, and Jalen Pitre is a rookie safety to keep an eye on. The Texans can challenge the Broncos' receivers, but Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr, who stands at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, had a huge day. This is a game to keep an eye on Courtland Sutton, who has a similar size and play style to Pittman. 

Denver should be able to exploit the Texans' issues at linebacker with their coverage play. This would be a good game to work a little more in the middle of the field, which is still a concern with Wilson. 

It's looking like the Broncos could be without KJ Hamler for the game, so they will need their depth receivers to step up. 

Advantage: Denver.

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Takeaways from Broncos vs. Seahawks

This was a weird game for the Broncos. They shot themselves in the foot enough to turn this game from a blowout win to a devastating loss. There were many issues they displayed on both sides of the ball. 

While the Broncos got good pressure on QB Geno Smith, the Seahawks' quicker passing game exploited the off-coverage Broncos' DC Ejiro Evero designed. This is something to keep an eye out for in this game against the Texans. 

If the Broncos' offense can play a cleaner game and capitalize on the opportunities, this should be a game they can move the ball effectively against the Texans' defense. There was a lot the Colts exposed that Denver could exploit, but it comes back to not shooting themselves in the foot. 

Davis Mills vs. Broncos' Defense

The Colts had tremendous success when blitzing and getting pressure on Mills. He went 5-of-9 for 47 yards and took three sacks when the Colts got pressure there. Again, it was an issue with the Texans' O-line. 

While there were many issues with the Broncos against the Seahawks, they actually did a good job upfront. If they can play tighter coverage to take away the quick passing game, they should see a lot of success. 

This isn't a game where Coach Evero wants to have his corners playing eight or more yards in off-coverage. Mills had the second fastest time to throw in Week 1, so relinquishing such a large cushion only plays into his hands. 

Of all Mills' passes, 21 came within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. While he didn't attack the 10-19-yard distance often, he did have success going 5-8 yards with two touchdowns. He only took two shots beyond the 20-yard mark, completing one. 

Denver needs to get Mills to hold the ball longer to allow the pressure to cause disruption. If the Broncos let him get the ball out cleanly and quickly, the Texans can and will dink and dunk their way down the field. 

While the Broncos have the personnel to attack the Texans, they didn't do it against the Seahawks. Also, losing safety Justin Simmons doesn't help the defense here, as the Broncos are losing a communicator on the backend. Even so, the advantage is still slightly for the Broncos, but they have to show they can stop the quick passing game with their personnel. 

Advantage: Slightly Denver. 

Broncos' Pass Rushers vs. Texans' Pass Protection

Texans LG Justin McCray is the weak point of the O-line. He allowed five pressures, which was tied for the sixth-most in Week 1 among all offensive guards. He was responsible for 50% of the pressure on Mills in the game. 

Colts DL DeForest Buckner put in some work against him. While Broncos DL Dre'Mont Jones isn't as good as Buckner, he is the right one to match up against McCray in this contest. Broncos DT D.J. Jones should also be able to see success against McCray.

The rest of the Texans' O-line did well, but they still had their issues in pass protection. Justin Britt, who is expected to play, and Laremy Tunsil accounted for a total of 8.3% of the pressure on Mills in the game. Texans RG A.J. Cann also counted for 8.3% of the pressure. 

Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory had good success off the edge last week. However, they must step it up against Tunsil at left tackle. Tytus Howard at right tackle should be a little more susceptible to getting pressure off the edge on Mills. However, Gregory didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday, which could be a precaution or a sign that he may not play. 

Baron Browning will have to step up if Gregory isn't good to go. So will Jonathon Cooper, who had issues against the run and got called for taunting against Seattle. Not having Gregory would be a bad loss to the pass rushers. 

If Gregory is good to go, the advantage is easily Denver's. However, if he isn't good to go, then this matchup is only slightly in Denver's favor. Relying on someone new to the position and Cooper isn't ideal for the matchups here. 

Advantage: Slightly Denver. 

Broncos' Run Defense vs. Texans' Running Game

D.J. Jones was excellent against the run, and for the most part, the Broncos did a solid job. However, the Broncos do need better-run fills from LB Alex Singleton and their safeties. 

This would be a good game to have Josey Jewell back and next to Jonas Griffith. However, Jewell didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday. 

Griffith did well vs. Seattle, but he seemed to be on a snap count as he returned from the dislocated elbow in the first preseason game. The Broncos' biggest concern against the run is DL DeShawn Williams, who the Seahawks had tremendous success against. 

The aforementioned Tunsil, Howard, and Cann are all good run blockers. The Broncos will have to be on their toes. This could be dangerous for the Broncos' run defense, especially if they aren't winning upfront with their D-line and edge rushers. 

The good news is the Colts showed how to attack the Texans' run game and limited them to 73 yards on 25 attempts from their running backs. Denver will need to look at what they did, replicate it with who they have, and attack the Texans' run-blocking weak points. 

Advantage: Denver.

Broncos' Pass Coverage vs. Texans' Passing Game

Again, Evero can't play off-coverage against the Texans as he did against the Seahawks. This passing game thrives on the quick passing game, getting the ball out in 2.16 seconds in week 1. Having Patrick Surtain II, Ronald Darby, and K'Waun Williams playing closer to the line will help buy a little extra time for the pass rushers to get him. 

In the case of Surtain, he has some of the best press techniques in the NFL. That needs to be utilized. 

Brandin Cooks and O.J. Howard are the biggest threats in the passing game. They can be a tough matchup, no matter who is guarding them. However, Denver can't sleep on Nico Collins, who is entering his second year. As a rookie, he caught 33 passes for 446 yards, and they're looking to him to step up this season. 

Cooks was targeted 12 times in the game against the Colts, followed by RB Rex Burkhead, with seven targets. Collins and Chris Moore had three each. If Denver can slow down and limit Cooks without ignoring the other receivers, it should be able to limit the passing game. 

The question is, can the Broncos go in and execute? Can Denver's corners give time to the pass rushers to get home? Those questions are why this is only slightly in Denver's favor for advantage. 

Advantage: Slightly Denver. 

Nathaniel Hackett vs. Lovie Smith

Smith is well experience, and he has put a good staff together in Houston. The Texans' coaches build their schemes well and game-plan competently around their players' skill sets. So while the Texans' coaches do have their issues, their experience doesn't lead to face-palming decisions. 

That brings us to Hackett, who coached the worst final seven minutes I have ever seen in his debut as head coach. He has to learn and grow from those mistakes, which is the likely scenario. However, the proof is in the pudding, and until he shows it, the concern will remain. 

Until Hackett shows the needed growth to not play for a field goal like he did vs. Seattle, the Broncos' opponents will have the advantage in the head coaching department. 

Advantage: Texans. 

Bottom Line

The Broncos are a much better team on paper than the Texans. However, that was also the case with the Seahawks, and Denver walked out with a loss. 

There is a lot of growth from the players and coaching staff that needs to be done. But how much can be seen in a single week? How much can the Broncos cut back on the self-inflicted wounds? 

The Broncos were in a position to blow out Seattle and fumbled it away, and it still came down to the final minutes and a wide-left field goal. If the Broncos can keep it clean and avoid costly fumbles and penalties, they should walk out with a 1-1 record. 

With the start of the season being the easier part of the Broncos' schedule, they really can't afford to be 0-2 to start the season. The Broncos have to win the games they're supposed to win. It has to start against the Texans. 

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