ESPN Dishes on How Broncos Have 'Upset' the Oddsmakers Already

The Denver Broncos have "legitimate playoff hopes," per ESPN, which fades the oddsmakers' predictions.

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) celebrates with quarterback Bo Nix (10) after scoring against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

In a down year for the middle of the AFC, the Denver Broncos sit firmly in the No. 7 playoff seed with complete control of their destiny. With games remaining against the squad’s most likely combatants for the final AFC playoff seeds against the Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, and Cincinnati Bengals, Denver will need to keep stacking victories while also avoiding key losses that could result in unfortunate tiebreakers come the end of the season.

Sitting at 5-5, are the Broncos contenders or pretenders when it comes to the AFC Playoff Picture? According to ESPN’s models, the Broncos have a next to zero chance of winning the division, now five games behind the Kansas City Chiefs at 0.1%.

However, the Broncos do have a strong opportunity to make the playoffs as ESPN has them at a 34.4% chance. A victory on the road at Kansas City certainly would have been nice to build a bit of a buffer, but Denver is very much in the thick of things.

ESPN’s Seth Walder believes the Broncos are firm contenders for the final Wildcard spot in the AFC. Praising the defense and an improving offense, the Broncos are a surprising squad compared to preseason expectations at this point in the season. Juxtaposed with the oddsmakers setting a 5.5-win over/under for the season, this team is ahead of schedule.

“An elite defense led by defensive end Zach Allen and cornerback Pat Surtain II -- along with improving play from rookie quarterback Bo Nix -- has the Broncos in surprising contention. Granted, their past four wins came against teams with three wins or fewer, and a defense-first approach is less reliable, so the odds are against them. But the Broncos have legitimate playoff hopes right now, which is already an upset," Walder wrote.

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It is surprising to hear Walder state that a defense-first approach is less reliable given the historical anecdote of “defense wins championships." An offense is obviously more stable year-to-year, given the unit's linkage to quarterback play, but over a singular season, it might be worth digging further into what has more volatility in offense versus defense.

What Walder did not mention is that while Denver is a defensive first team, its offensive line is playing like one of the best units in football. Defense plus good offensive line play? That’s a winning formula at any level of football.

ESPN's long-time beat reporter Jeff Legwold also adds that the Broncos' second-half goal this season should be closing out the campaign with at least six home wins.

“The Broncos are 2-2 this season at home and were 5-4 in 2023, a far cry from Mike Shanahan's four 8-0 home campaigns during his 14 seasons as head coach or the 7-1 or better home record of three of Peyton Manning's four teams," Legwold wrote.

Compiling six home wins would mean the Broncos must defeat the Atlanta Falcons, the Cleveland Browns, the Colts, and the Chiefs to close the season. Given the Broncos have their best chance at making the postseason since 2015, one should expect a true home-field advantage to return to Denver for the final stretch of the 2024 season with a fired-up fanbase watching meaningful football down the stretch once again.

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