Broncos Week 1 DVOA Ranking Shows There's Nowhere to Go but Up

Let's hope it was a one-game coincidence for the Denver Broncos.

Sep 8, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Baron Browning (5) tackles Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) during the second quarter at Lumen Field. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos had plenty of issues in the season opener, but it’s not necessarily a game that will tell the tale about how the season unfolds. Still, we might be able to learn a few things about how effective the Broncos were in each aspect of the game, how effective the Seattle Seahawks were, and what that might mean in upcoming games.

Aaron Schatz is the man behind defense-adjusted value over average, or DVOA, which examines how efficient teams are at executing in all phases of the game. Schatz had his Week 1 DVOA report at For the Numbers and has the Broncos ranked 28th overall in DVOA.

The Broncos are ranked 30th in offense (-48.9 percent), 29th in defense (25.9 percent), and second in special teams (17.8 percent). Note that for defense, DVOA is better when it is negative.

What happens next on the Broncos beat? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Obviously, the Broncos have a lot of work to do, but keep in mind that it’s a one-game sample size and that DVOA has not been adjusted for strength of opponents. That adjustment will come later in the season, gradually added as more games are played.

Furthermore, it’s not a given that the Broncos will rank this low come season’s end, but they will need to show improvement on offense and defense to improve their DVOA rating. Two things that will help are not being so dependent on the passing game (having Bo Nix throw the ball 40-plus times is not ideal) and to have more consistency on defense from the first half to the second half (the defense gave up several big plays in the second half).

But what about the Seahawks? They ranked fourth in overall DVOA, seventh in offense (22.7 percent), first in defense (-56.2 percent), and 27th in special teams (-7.6 percent).

Are the Seahawks really that good? On defense, maybe.

The Seahawks did a good job of limiting yards after the catch when Nix was able to complete a pass. While the Seahawks defense will face tougher offenses later this season, limiting receiver yards after the catch is a sign of a good defense.

As for the offense, the Seahawks struggled in the first half but made adjustments and played better in the second half. I’m not convinced the offense will rank that high in DVOA when more games are played, but the Seahawks deserve credit for adjusting.

And what of the Steelers, who are next on the schedule? They ranked 13th in overall DVOA, 25th on offense (-17.4 percent), 10th in defense (-9.8 percent) and fifth in special teams (10.7 percent).

While the Pittsburgh Steelers weren’t as good defensively in Week 1 as the Seahawks, I’d argue they will be a better unit, which means the Broncos better not be throwing the ball 40 times in the game if they want a chance to win.

As for the Steelers’ offense, the unit wasn’t good in Week 1 and had to keep settling for field goals. Hopefully, the Broncos defense can find ways to consistently stop drives and maybe give the Broncos offense good field position early, as the defense and special teams did in Week 1.

Bottom Line

Again, it’s just one week of games but the question will be how well the Broncos fare over time. Based on DVOA — even if it’s a small sample — we should expect a better defensive showing in Week 2, but the offense will have a tough challenge. We’ll see how that translates to the actual game.

---

Follow Mile High Huddle on X and Facebook and subscribe on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!