Broncos Week 4 DVOA Ranking Hints at Optimistic Outlook Shift

Something could be happening within the Denver Broncos.

Sep 22, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) celebrates after a sack against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are coming off their first win of the season. Denver's defense looks good thus far, its special teams unit has been great, and against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the offense showed signs of progress.

After the Broncos suffered back-to-back losses against the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers, some fans may have wondered if it was going to be a long season with the team seldom winning a game. But it might be that the Broncos faced two of the better teams in the NFL — particularly on defense — in the first two weeks. And that’s where advanced statistics come into play.

I analyzed DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) after the first week of the season. Now let’s look at DVOA again to see where the Broncos are at and how their first three opponents measured up.

Where the Broncos Rank

The Broncos are currently ranked 19th in overall DVOA at -9.6 percent. On offense, the Broncos are ranked 19th overall (-19.8 percent), 13th overall in defense (-0.2 percent), and second overall in special teams (9.9 percent). Note that, for defense, DVOA is better when it is negative.

DVOA would suggest that the Broncos are average on defense, below average on offense, and great on special teams.

However, now we come to the Broncos’ three opponents. On one hand, DVOA hasn’t yet been adjusted to account for the strength of opponents, with that phased in during the coming weeks as more games are played. On the other hand, we can get a good idea about the quality of opponents the Broncos have faced thus far.

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Broncos' First 3 Opponents: Where They Rank

Sep 8, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) jumps over a tackle attempt by Denver Broncos cornerback JaQuan McMillian (29) during the second quarter at Lumen Field. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The Seahawks are a team that DVOA likes thus far — they’re ranked third overall (52 percent). On offense, they're ranked sixth (19.5 percent). On defense, they're ranked second (-36.4 percent). And on special teams, they're ranked 27th (-3.8 percent).

Special teams likely took a hit because the Seahawks muffed a punt against the Broncos and had bad field position on other drives, thanks to Denver downing the ball deep in Seattle territory.

But look at offense and defense. The Seahawks have been good at both.

The Broncos offense opened against a quality defense, and Denver's defense opened against a quality offense. At this point, Seattle has emerged as the top team in the NFC West, and some may wonder whether they could contend for the NFC title.

Then we come to the Steelers. DVOA likes the Steelers as well because they're ranked sixth overall (24.6 percent). They're ranked 18th in offense (-2.2 percent), fourth in defense (-23.2 percent), and eighth in special teams (3.5 percent).

The Broncos faced a very good defense in Week 2. That made two straight weeks in which the Broncos offense faced arguably a top defense in the NFL. That doesn’t explain all of the Broncos’ struggles on offense, but it does explain a key factor.

That the Steelers aren’t considered to have a top offense is one thing that likely keeps the Broncos’ defensive DVOA lower than it might be otherwise. Still, that’s not a knock on the defense, which has done good things, even though the defense lacks clear game changers other than Patrick Surtain II and, arguably, Zach Allen.

Finally, we have the Buccaneers. They're ranked 20th in overall DVOA (-10.9 percent), 23rd in offense (-11 percent), 15th in defense (1.5 percent), and 12th in special teams (1.5 percent).

The Broncos faced what might be a league-average team in Week 3. That’s not to take anything away from what the Broncos did, but it may partly explain the success that both the offense and defense had against the Bucs.

The Takeaway

Where will the Broncos ultimately stand? Only time will tell but there is some room for optimism that the Broncos can get more wins than some might have predicted they would get before the start of the season.

We’ll get a better idea about the Broncos in the coming weeks, particularly when we look at the Broncos’ next three opponents.

DVOA is favorable to the Los Angeles Chargers (9th overall) and New York Jets (10th overall) but not to the Las Vegas Raiders (31st overall). But for the Chargers, it’s more favorable to the defense (third overall, -26.2 percent) than the offense (20th overall, -5.8 percent) and for the Jets, it doesn’t view the offense (12th overall, 9.2 percent) and defense (11th overall, -2.3 percent) as strong units.

The expectation might be that the Broncos offense can do some good things against the Raiders (who are 27th in defense) and Jets, given that New York isn't a strong unit, but Denver might have issues against the Chargers (unless Joey Bosa misses the game). As for the defense, the Broncos might have issues with the Jets but do good things against the Raiders (27th in offense) and Chargers (and with the latter team, might do a lot if Justin Herbert isn’t healthy).

Again, we’ll know more about the Broncos in the weeks to come, but if DVOA is any indicator, there’s a chance for the Broncos to come out 3-3 in the first six weeks of the season. And that may be enough to give Broncos fans room for optimism for what’s to come in the rest of the season.

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