How Likely is a Worst-to-First Finish for Broncos? History Tells the Tale
The Denver Broncos have been the cellar-dwellers of the AFC West over their uncharacteristic run of mediocrity since 2016. That reality will change in 2022.
The reason is as obvious as a Las Vegas neon sign: Russell Wilson.
Wilson's arrival in Denver changes the dynamic of the AFC West, so much so that the Broncos are poised to go from last place in 2021 to first place in 2022.
Since the 2011 season, there have been eight NFL instances where the last-place finisher won its division the following year. There's always been one particular reason for this turnaround. Read on and it will be obvious.
In 2012, the Washington Commanders won their division with a 10-6 record after having been in last place in 2011 with a 5-11 mark. A five-game improvement.
2012 was the season that Washington drafted Robert Griffin III. He greatly improved the quarterback position over the Rex Grossman experience the prior year, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in the process.
Next, the Philadelphia Eagles recorded a 10-6 record in 2013 to win the NFC East after being dead last the previous season at 4-12. This six-game improvement was due to Nick Foles replacing a struggling Michael Vick.
Foles went 8-2 and far exceed what Vick had put out the prior season in nearly every statistical category, including an eight-point improvement in completion percentage and reduction in interception percentage from 2.8 to 0.6.
Again in the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys went from worst to first from 2015 to 2016 by improving their record by nine games (4-12 to 13-3). While Tony Romo struggled with injuries in 2015, Matt Cassel took the helm. It did not end well for the Cowboys.
However, Dallas found luck in the draft by landing Dak Prescott in 2016. He was a rookie sensation, winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and throwing 23 touchdowns to only four interceptions.
In 2017, the Jacksonville Jaguars went from worst to first with a banner year from Blake Bortles. 2018 was the Houston Texans' turn when they gave the reigns to Dashaun Watson, and also the Chicago Bears when Mitchell Trubisky made a huge jump in performance from his rookie to sophomore seasons.
In 2020, the Commanders used a 5-1 start by Alex Smith to sneak into the title after he had missed the entire 2019 season. The Cincinnati Bengals had a healthy Joe Burrow the entire 2021 season and went from worst to first.
The point should be obvious by now. In a quarterback-driven league, success rests on the signal-caller's shoulders.
It's not uncommon for a team to go from cellar to ceiling in the division. With the Wilson acquisition, the Broncos are poised to make a run at the 2022 AFC West crown for the first time since 2015.
Denver won seven games last season with a combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock under center. Those QBs were mediocre at best, but the team was still only five games out of first place.
Every team listed in this article, sans the Commanders, improved by at least five games in their respective catapults from worst to first. A five-game improvement is attainable within that scope.
The Broncos' offense has improved greatly with the acquisition of Wilson and right tackle Billy Turner. The defense has some question marks, but that unit looks to be as solid as it was in 2021.
Finally, the special teams unit could not have gotten worse with the jettison of coordinator Tom McMahon, who has been replaced by Dwayne Stukes. It would be no surprise to see the Broncos win the West and become the ninth NFL team in the past 12 years to go from worst to first.
Can you feel it? Fortunes are about to turn.
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