Metrics Reveal Two Egregious Broncos Pro Bowl Snubs

The metrics prove that two very deserving Denver Broncos were snubbed for the Pro Bowl.

Denver Broncos right guard Quinn Meinerz and defensive end Zach Allen. / Ron Chenoy / Denny Medley / Imagn Images

The NFL announced the Pro Bowl rosters before players pulled out, and alternates were named, and the Denver Broncos have three players making it. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II, outside linebacker Nik Bonitto, and returner Marvin Mims Jr. deserve to make it, but two other Broncos should be part of this list.

Broncos defensive end Zach Allen and right guard Quinn Meinerz deserved to be Pro Bowlers, but examining these snubs, it's crucial to first look at who made it over them. Let’s get into it. 

Meinerz's Case

First up is Meinerz, who missed out behind Quenton Nelson of the Indianapolis Colts and both Kansas City Chiefs guards Trey Smith and Joe Thuney. All three are great guards and are having good seasons, but Meinerz has been even better. According to Pro Football Focus, let's examine how these guards stack up to Meinerz with one game left this season. 

Out of 41 guards who have played at least 900 snaps on offense, Meinerz ranks third in overall offense grade, with Nelson at fifth, Thuney at seventh, and Smith at tenth. PFF's run-blocking grade has Meinerz and Nelson in the same spot, but Smith at eighth and Thuney at 11th.

When it comes to pass-blocking, Meinerz ranks third, Nelson is fourth, Smith is 16th, and Thuney is second. For the PFF grades, only Thuney is graded higher than Meinerz, representing one of the three grading points. 

As for sacks allowed, Smith and Thuney haven’t allowed any, while Meinerz is credited with allowing one and Nelson with three. In total pressures, Meinerz has allowed the league lowest for the qualifying guards with 11, with Nelson at seventh-lowest, Thuney at 16th-lowest, and Smith at 20th-lowest.

Smith has allowed 10 more pressures than Meinerz. It's worth noting that two of them block for Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback in the NFL (even though he wasn't elected to the Pro Bowl this year), while Meienrz blocks for a rookie quarterback. Meinerz has the best pass-blocking efficiency, which factors in pass-blocking snaps, with Thuney tied for sixth, Smith tied for 10th, and Nelson tied for 12th. 

The last aspect to look at is penalties. Thuney is one of two guards called for two penalties this season, the lowest number among qualifying guards, with Meinerz at four, Smith at nine penalties, and Nelson at 10. 

Bottom Line

Thuney deserves to be there, but his teammate should not have made it over Meinerz. Smith is having a good season, but he has not been playing at the level Meinerz has or all that close to it.

There's a significant gap between the two players with these stats, and when you watch their tape, you can see it. The popularity of the Chiefs as the “best team in the NFL” undoubtedly boosted Smith's profile. 

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Allen's Case

The immense shame is that Allen, the best interior defensive lineman in the NFL this year, did not make the Pro Bowl. Eight players have at least 750 snaps on the defensive line, only one of them over 830 snaps, and that's Allen, who has 940 snaps, 110 more than the next highest.

Allen is kept on the field, and consistency makes an impact on the game throughout. PFF has questionably slammed Allen all season with poor grades, even in games where he has made a significant impact on the defense. But even if he was as bad as PFF would have you believe, what he's done as a pass rusher more than makes up for it. 

Let's examine the players selected instead of Allen. Chris Jones of the Chiefs, Cameron Heyward of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Nnamdi Madubuike of the Baltimore Ravens are the three who made it over Allen. Heyward didn't play more than 750 snaps, falling short at 731, so to include him, the snap total has to be dropped to 700, where 11 defensive linemen qualify. 

Allen ranks ninth in overall defensive grade, Heyward and Jones are first and second, and Madubuike is eighth. For run defense grade, Allen ranks 10th, with Heyward first, Jones fourth, and Madubuike tied for fifth. Pass-rushing grades have Jones and Heyward ranked first and second, Allen seventh, and Madubuike eighth. Now, let's look at stats from NFL Pro for these four players. 

Heyward has 57 stops, Allen has 52, and Jones and Madubuike have 31 (fewer than Broncos defensive tackles D.J. Jones and Malcolm Roach). Allen has 8.5 sacks, Heyward has eight, Madubuike has 6.5, and Jones has five.

As for total pressures, Allen has 65, Jones 61, Madubuike 45, and Heyward has 40. The pressure rate has Jones at 12%, Allen at 11.3%, Heyward at 9.7%, and Madubuike at 9.2%. The last stat is quick pressures, which counts pressure achieved in under three seconds. Jones leads with 26, then Allen at 21, Heyward has 13, and Madubuike is at nine. 

Bottom Line

It should be obvious who Allen should have made it over. Heyward has been the best-run-defending interior defensive lineman this season, and Jones is a threat in both areas. Even if Allen has been as bad as a run defender as the PFF grades suggest, his impact as a pass rusher has been significantly greater than Madubuike, who also graded poorly as a run defender.

There is no reason Madubuike is more deserving of the Pro Bowl than Allen. The Broncos lineman has produced an outstanding season. 

When players pull out because of injury or to focus on the Super Bowl, it wouldn’t be surprising if these two get in if spots open up in their position for the AFC. However, it's a shame that Meinerz and Allen weren’t named as starters to the Pro Bowl.

Both have been qualitatively better than at least one of the players who made it ahead of them and are far more deserving of it. It's safe to say there's still some disrespect for the Broncos across the league.

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