Broncos in a Contract Year: Projecting What Deal OL Dalton Risner Could Command

If Dalton Risner turns the corner, what'll it cost the Broncos to keep him?

Dalton Risner, a Denver Broncos fan favorite, enters the final year of his rookie contract in 2022. A 2019 second-round pick, Risner has missed just two starts in three seasons.

He's had his ups and downs at the left guard position. Risner turned in a quality rookie season but didn't improve enough in his sophomore campaign. He then got a little better in his third season but then missed a couple of games with a minor injury.

The question entering 2022 is whether or not Risner will earn himself a new contract or whether the Broncos will move on. Assuming he does get a new contract, what might it look like?

The Top of the Guard Market

For the most part, offensive guards don't get paid as much as offensive tackles. However, a few guards have reached unexpected heights.

Joe Thuney, for example, got a five-year, $80 million contract from the Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs last year. A likely reason is that the New England Patriots had placed the franchise tag on him in 2020, which drove up his asking price for 2021.

The franchise tag for offensive linemen is the same for all, meaning there's no distinction between tackles and guards. For that reason, the tag is more appealing to guards and centers than for tackles, who typically get larger free-agent contracts.

We've seen other examples of guards who got massive contracts for their position, such as Joel Bitonio (whom the Cleveland Browns extended for three years at $48M) and Brandon Scherff (who was tagged by Washington in back-to-back seasons, then got four years for $49.5M from the Jaguars).

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Risner's Ceiling

Because Risner is not an elite player, he will not reach the numbers that Thuney, Bitonio, and Scherff have commanded. But if Risner makes the Pro Bowl in 2022, things could get interesting.

Consider Laken Tomlinson, drafted by the Detroit Lions in 2015, then traded to the San Francisco 49ers a couple of seasons later. He would sign a three-year, $16.5M extension in 2018.

Tomlinson's play improved over the years, and he had arguably his best season as a pro in 2021. He turned that season into a three-year, $40M contract from the New York Jets.

Though that was Tomlinson's third contract, the fact that he cashed in after showing improvement could mean that Risner has a chance to do the same, if he plays his best in 2022.

Risner's Floor

However, it's more likely that Risner's will come in at a lower price, even if he makes his first Pro Bowl. But while it's likely to be much less than Tomlinson, Risner will see a higher payday than his current $2.7M salary.

The comparison might be similar to Alex Cappa, a quality player for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the past three seasons, who signed with the Cincinnati Bengals during the offseason. Cappa got a four-year, $35M contract from the Bengals.

Another comparison might be Connor Williams, who got two years for $14M from the Miami Dolphins. However, I wouldn't expect Risner to take a two-year deal necessarily — and if he were to stay with the Broncos, he might be viewed as a long-term player and, thus, be in line for a longer contract.

One other factor to keep in mind: Because Risner is a Colorado native, he may be more willing to take a "hometown discount" to stay with the Broncos. While that wouldn't necessarily mean a large discount, he could come in at, say, the APY salary Williams got, only for a longer term.

Bottom Line

I believe the Cappa contract would be the most likely deal Risner would get if he stays with Denver, though with slight differences, particularly when it comes to fully guaranteed money.

The Bengals gave Cappa $11.5M in fully guaranteed money: a $9M signing bonus and a $2M roster bonus. No other money was guaranteed.

Risner could be slotted in at four years at $36M with $20M fully guaranteed. That would include a signing bonus and two years of base salary, with the final two years of base salary not guaranteed.

If Risner takes the "hometown discount," that could put him around four years at $32M with $18M fully guaranteed. Again, that's not a large discount, but it would give the Broncos a little more wiggle room from a cap and cash standpoint.

Of course, Risner does need to play well in 2022 to justify sticking around and garnering a raise of any sort. He'll get his chance to prove himself, and if he does, he might get rewarded by Broncos GM George Paton with a new contract.

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