Broncos 10-Step Free Agency Playbook

If the Broncos can check these 10 boxes, the team will crush the 2020 offseason and set themselves up for success in the fall.

Ever since the 2019 campaign ended, the Denver Broncos have been in offseason planning mode. The majority of the team’s focus is naturally placed on how to tackle the free agency period and NFL Draft. 

But as we saw recently in the Broncos acquiring CB A.J. Bouye via trade, GM John Elway also appears to be actively involved in the trade market. With the NFL free agency period right around the corner (March 18), here is a sample plan for how I could see the Broncos attacking the entire offseason

Step 1: Decline Leary’s Option, Pick up Davis’s Option, Franchise Tag Simmons

Let’s get the more obvious moves out of the way first. As Elway has already publicly announced, the team does not plan to exercise the team option on OG Ronald Leary’s contract. Leary will be a free agent. 

In the same press conference, Elway also said the team would be picking up the team option on Todd Davis’ contract, locking in his $6 million salary for 2020. I don't necessarily believe this means Davis' roster spot will be safe once the season starts, however. The team does have the option to move on from him at some point later in the spring/summer and free up $4.5M in cap space.

Lastly, Justin Simmons is the Broncos' top priority this offseason. The hope is to get a long-term deal in place for him, but you can guarantee the team will use the franchise tag on him to ensure he stays in Denver for 2020.

Step 2: Let both Harrises Walk

When Denver traded for Bouye, many thought the door was still open for Chris Harris, Jr. to return to the Broncos. But recent comments by Harris have led most insiders to believe he has played his last snaps in the Orange and Blue. Paying him market value (say $12M per year) is also not a strong option given what the team is already paying Simmons, Kareem Jackson, Bryce Callahan, and the recently-acquired Bouye.

Then there’s Shelby Harris. It doesn’t appear the team will be looking to bring both him and Derek Wolfe back. And all indications thus far point to Shelby wanting to get paid top dollar from the highest bidder. Most signs point to Denver favoring a re-signing of Wolfe over Shelby, primarily for cost reasons.

Which leads to the next step…

Step 3: Re-Sign Wolfe

Wolfe had a phenomenal year in 2019 and has left the door open for a return to Denver at the right price. With all three incumbent starting defensive linemen hitting unrestricted free agency, you can expect the team to prioritize signing someone, so why not bring back the guy who’s been a long-time fan favorite and loyal Elway soldier? Wolfe also shouldn’t break the bank as much as Shelby would.

It’s tough to say exactly what kind of deal it would take to retain Wolfe, but given his age and injury history, I would estimate something like three years/$30M getting the deal done. He could, however, price himself out of Denver if he finds a bigger market than many anticipate.

Step 4: Sort out the Backup QB Situation

Let’s state the obvious — Drew Lock is Denver's 2020 starting QB. But the question of who will back him up is still up in the air. Right now, Joe Flacco is slated to fill that role, but it’s hard to imagine the team wanting to pay him nearly $24M for the privelege.

The team essentially has two options here:

1. Cut or trade (if you can miraculously find a trade partner) Flacco and sign a free agent QB for around $5-8M/yr. There may not be a ton of great options in the backup QB market this offseason, but a guy like Colt McCoy could make sense given his history with OC Pat Shurmur.

2. Get Flacco to agree to restructure his contract (aka ask him to take a pay-cut). The team was able to restructure Joe’s deal last season, but that did not include asking him to take less pay. The Broncos will incur a $13.6M dead cap hit by releasing him, so if they can convince him to take a pay-cut to get to a number similar to that, it could make sense to keep him. However, whether or not he’s the best fit for this scheme is still to be determined.

At the end of the day, I think the team will ultimately decide to move on and start fresh, as Flacco’s play this past season was less than impressive.

Step 5: Sign a Week 1 Starter at Either C or RG

The coaches have already expressed that they're okay with the current offensive line options on the roster. The incumbent starters include LT Garett Bolles, LG Dalton Risner, and RT Ja’Wuan James. 

Many within the Broncos organization have expressed a level of comfort with having Patrick Morris as their day-one center and restricted free-agent Elijah Wilkinson (who the team will likely need to tender at the second-round level) as their starting right guard.

That may be true, but it would still be prudent to go out and bring in another veteran that is capable of starting right away. Health has been a major issue for this position group over the last several years and the depth is razor-thin beyond these five aforementioned players. 

Not only would I expect the Broncos to make a move in free agency, but I also expect to see the team taking one or two additional offensive linemen with their 11 draft picks.

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Step 6: Sign CB Prince Amukamara

Yes, the team just traded for Bouye. Yes, the team is poised to pay sizable contracts to four players in the secondary. But there has been a lot of chatter about Denver remaining interested in Amukamara, despite the trade for Bouye. 

Amukamara could come in at a much more reasonable cost ($6-8M/year) and provide valuable insurance if Callahan’s foot doesn’t improve from last season. Amukamara is also a former Vic Fangio disciple, making him a great scheme fit.

You also have to take into consideration the injury history with this group and the AFC West landscape. Denver dealt with a plethora of CB injuries in the 2019 season, which really tested their (lack of) depth. 

You also have to worry about covering the weapons the Kansas City Chiefs have. Loading up in the secondary may not offset those offensive threats completely, but it would go a long way in helping.

Step 7: Ignore High-Priced WRs & Instead Address it in Draft

Wide receiver is one of — if not the — biggest needs for this roster this offseason. Fortunately, the team has a bonafide stud in Courtland Sutton already on the team, but he needs help below him on the depth chart — especially in a Shurmur system.

This year’s free-agent WR class doesn’t have nearly the level of depth the draft has at the position. There is basically one solid top-end option (Amari Cooper) and a number of mid-tier guys who will likely command as much as $10M/year and come with their own set of risks (primarily age and injury history).

With how heavily the Broncos are spending in the secondary and outside linebacker group, having a low-cost WR room will go a long way toward keeping the team’s overall cap situation healthy. I can see Denver making a move for a WR in the later waves of free agency at a much more modest price.

Lastly, this year’s draft may have the best WR class we have ever seen. You can likely find a WR2 in the second round, and many expect Denver to seriously consider addressing this position with their 1 round pick.

Step 8: Keep an Ear Close to the Ground on Free-Agent RBs

This may seem like a bit of a shocker when you consider the team already has Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman under contract, but that doesn’t mean Shurmur won’t want to add additional weapons to this position group.

This year’s RB free agency class has some intriguing options. Just look at some of these names:

• Derrick Henry

• Kenyan Drake

• Matt Breida

• Kareem Hunt

• Carlos Hyde

• Lamar Miller

• LeSean McCoy

• Austin Ekeler (RFA)

• Melvin Gordon

• Isaiah Crowell

Now, I’m not suggesting Denver should spend big on guys like Henry or Drake, but I would certainly keep a close eye on some of the pass-catching backs like Ekeler and Crowell (or even Theo Riddick again) to see what kind of contracts they command. Overall, though, I don’t see Denver spending much here and sticking to the value players. After all, they are going to have to pay Lindsay very soon.

Step 9: Keep Analyzing Potential Trade Opportunities

One thing Elway has shown during his time as the Broncos GM is his willingness to strike a trade deal. He’s already off to a great start making a shrewd move to plug a major hole at CB by bringing in Bouye.

Sure, there are some “flashy” opportunities on the trading block. You can throw out names like Stefon Diggs, Trent Williams, and even Odell Beckham, Jr. Those could be possibilities. But someone I could really see making sense is defensive lineman Calais Campbell. 

The Broncos almost signed Campbell a few years ago, and he fits the scheme like a glove. The only downside here is he’s set to have a cap hit of $17.5M for the 2020 season, something you’d likely look to bring down by offering an extension as part of the deal.

At the end of the day, Denver does still have 11 draft picks remaining. Do not be surprised to see that number shrink as a result of additional trades prior to the draft.

Step 10: Stash Some Reserve Cap Space for Veteran Band-Aid Signings

Every offseason, a number of solid veteran players are cut in the latter phases of free agency. The Broncos have been able to capitalize on these types of players several times during Elway’s tenure. 

And with a number of teams dealing with cap space shortages heading into the offseason (Steelers, Vikings, Falcons, Saints, 49ers, Packers, Chiefs to name a few), this could end up being one of the better years for these types of value players.

In addition, this “reserve” cap space will be a nice tool to have in the event the team experiences any significant injuries during the offseason (knock on wood). Even in the event that Elway doesn’t end up spending it all, the cap space can roll over into the 2021 season.

Bottom Line

There you have it, Broncos Country. As we gear up for the exciting start of free agency, the Broncos have already filled one of their major needs and have unlimited options for how they can utilize their roughly $53M in cap space to improve the roster.

As always, I want to hear what you think. Sound off in the comment section below. 

Follow Trevor on Twitter @TrevorJudge and @MileHighHuddle.